Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[Carp]

Are you basing this on his HR numbers? He had some pretty good numbers in Colo as well and I do understand the Rockies park situation. My point is he could possibly fill backup rolls for Freddie, Ozzie, as well as be the 3b everyone wants. Could also DH. Eliminate the need for a backup SS? Maybe. Rumors Yanks may look elsewhere with payroll as it is. 2b market is pretty full at the moment. Is an attractive target IMO.

Yes I am. He never got more than 15 in a season at Colorado. Comes to NY and sets career highs, but his numbers away from NY are very pedestrian.

DJL will get paid very well. Likely around 50 million or more in guaranteed money. But it shouldn't be from us.

[NYCBrave]

The Mets are trying to embrace analytics by rehiring the dinosaur named Alderson? And they plan to spend a ton of cash before they have their analytics in place?

Sounds very Mets to me already. Glad to see it happening.

Great call lol. I've been thinking the same. Of all people to bring in Alderson who is in his 70s to lead the organization. The same man who was the Mets GM and I think let go because he had cancer a few years ago?? Regardless I'm not optimistic he's going to embrace the modern movement.

[clvclv]

It seems like Cohen is willing to go through the luxury tax (which the Wilpons never were) but is also trying to build an organization. He's looking to beef up every aspect of the front office from scouting to analytics, because he admitted they were in the stone age compared to other teams. He even said in his opening press conference he'd be disappointed if they don't win the world series in 3-5 years.

Here's the thing though, I'm not sure the Mets are a couple of signings away from winning a world series. Their farm system is already rated one of the worst in the league. Their hitting last year was great but it was a bunch of butchers in the field. Their bullpen needs a lot of help. Their rotation needs help (Syndegaard is supposed to miss the first two months).

The Mets to me are in a weird spot. DeGrom is 33 next year. Conforto who finally broke out will be a free agent after next season. There's not much help left coming through the minors. So I'm not sure how they pull this off long term with just spending.

Exactly the reason I expect he'll throw money at every problem - at first. The pieces are there to try it that way WHILE he tries to improve the other aspects.

Yes, health is always the issue with their rotation (as for everyone - as we finally saw first hand last season), but when it actually is healthy they can line up with anyone. They have their dominant Closer. You couldn't pick a better time to throw money at building out the rest of their pen (maybe ever) - as I mentioned a while back, Alderson's in a position to tell all the late-inning options to go out and chase their best offers before calling him. He can just beat them by $500K-$1 million per. Adding Springer and Realmuto would make their lineup insanely deep even without the DH - with it they'd be an absolute nightmare. You'd be looking at a couple of Smith, McNeil, Nimmo, and at least one of Rosario or Gimenez (if not both) as potential trade pieces to start re-stocking their farm. While their system's not particularly deep, Allan and Ginn give them two guys with pretty big upside that could be ready to step into their rotation by 2023. Throw money at Lynn and another SP next winter to bridge that gap.

Their "transformation" won't take place overnight - it didn't for the Dodgers or Yankees either - but if Cohen's committed to building a complete organization like they did, they're in a position to be relevant the entire time they're doing it. Alderson's there to be the win-now guy (which he's proven capable of being) while Cohen puts the pieces to run things much more efficiently down the line.

[PawPawMaxwell]

when you post twice it doubles the chance of a massive missive (nice alliteration btw) from clv

Palsy gets the better of me now and then.

[NYCBrave]

Exactly the reason I expect he'll throw money at every problem - at first. The pieces are there to try it that way WHILE he tries to improve the other aspects.

Yes, health is always the issue with their rotation (as for everyone - as we finally saw first hand last season), but when it actually is healthy they can line up with anyone. They have their dominant Closer. You couldn't pick a better time to throw money at building out the rest of their pen (maybe ever) - as I mentioned a while back, Alderson's in a position to tell all the late-inning options to go out and chase their best offers before calling him. He can just beat them by $500K-$1 million per. Adding Springer and Realmuto would make their lineup insanely deep even without the DH - with it they'd be an absolute nightmare. You'd be looking at a couple of Smith, McNeil, Nimmo, and at least one of Rosario or Gimenez (if not both) as potential trade pieces to start re-stocking their farm. While their system's not particularly deep, Allan and Ginn give them two guys with pretty big upside that could be ready to step into their rotation by 2023. Throw money at Lynn and another SP next winter to bridge that gap.

Their "transformation" won't take place overnight - it didn't for the Dodgers or Yankees either - but if Cohen's committed to building a complete organization like they did, they're in a position to be relevant the entire time they're doing it. Alderson's there to be the win-now guy (which he's proven capable of being) while Cohen puts the pieces to run things much more efficiently down the line.

It's a good analysis. My only counter is that the Dodgers got to where they are through smart drafting and player development. Smart drafting will take a few years, including on the international market which takes even longer, and they don't even have the staff in place yet to be a force on developing players or drafting yet. Time will tell. I know Mets fans are ecstatic.

[bravesfanforlife88]

I don't think i've seen it talked about, but Rich Hill might not be a terrible candidate to replace Hamels, his K/BB rate took a dip this season but he did keep the ball in the park...

Should come cheap on a 1 year deal and allow you to focus on filling Ozuna's spot

[PawPawMaxwell]

I don't think i've seen it talked about, but Rich Hill might not be a terrible candidate to replace Hamels, his K/BB rate took a dip this season but he did keep the ball in the park...

Should come cheap on a 1 year deal and allow you to focus on filling Ozuna's spot

Hill will be 41 before season starts. That pushes the age issue a bit too far IMO.

[Enscheff]

If AA is patient there will almost certainly be a ~2 win SP available in late January for a reasonable 1 year deal. If the Braves can’t get a bargain on Morton based on his geographical preferences, they should wait for a bargain.

Getting the bat to replace Ozuna is more important since there are fewer impact bats available.

[PawPawMaxwell]

If AA is patient there will almost certainly be a ~2 win SP available in late January for a reasonable 1 year deal. If the Braves can’t get a bargain on Morton based on his geographical preferences, they should wait for a bargain.

Getting the bat to replace Ozuna is more important since there are fewer impact bats available.

Totally agree. Ozuna or similar replacement is by far the biggest need.

[50PoundHead]

I don't think i've seen it talked about, but Rich Hill might not be a terrible candidate to replace Hamels, his K/BB rate took a dip this season but he did keep the ball in the park...

Should come cheap on a 1 year deal and allow you to focus on filling Ozuna's spot

The problem with Hill for me is that he hasn't pitched a full season since 2018. Granted this year was shortened overall, but he only made 8 starts in 2020 and 13 in 2019. He's been effective, but can he be counted upon. I feel the same way about Alex Wood (albeit Wood is much younger). We don't know what resources are and there is risk with every player when it comes to the chances of injury, but I don't think the Braves are in a position to spend on guys who have missed considerable time the past couple of seasons

[bravesfanforlife88]

The problem with Hill for me is that he hasn't pitched a full season since 2018. Granted this year was shortened overall, but he only made 8 starts in 2020 and 13 in 2019. He's been effective, but can he be counted upon. I feel the same way about Alex Wood (albeit Wood is much younger). We don't know what resources are and there is risk with every player when it comes to the chances of injury, but I don't think the Braves are in a position to spend on guys who have missed considerable time the past couple of seasons

The reason I mentioned it is there was an article on MLBtraderumors today. Sounds like he specifically and only wants to play for a WS contender. That being said, and his familiarity with AA, makes me wonder if he would sacrifice $$ for a chance to win now. For instance, if he took a Flelix Hernandez style contract to be the braves 5/6 starter, we should be all over that. You'd still have room to address multiple spots. And you wouldn't have to count on him for a full season. He can step in early if Soroka needs more time to heal, and go to the pen later in the season if Wilson/Wright/Newk prove they are ready

[Heyward]

Exactly the reason I expect he'll throw money at every problem - at first. The pieces are there to try it that way WHILE he tries to improve the other aspects.

Yes, health is always the issue with their rotation (as for everyone - as we finally saw first hand last season), but when it actually is healthy they can line up with anyone. They have their dominant Closer. You couldn't pick a better time to throw money at building out the rest of their pen (maybe ever) - as I mentioned a while back, Alderson's in a position to tell all the late-inning options to go out and chase their best offers before calling him. He can just beat them by $500K-$1 million per. Adding Springer and Realmuto would make their lineup insanely deep even without the DH - with it they'd be an absolute nightmare. You'd be looking at a couple of Smith, McNeil, Nimmo, and at least one of Rosario or Gimenez (if not both) as potential trade pieces to start re-stocking their farm. While their system's not particularly deep, Allan and Ginn give them two guys with pretty big upside that could be ready to step into their rotation by 2023. Throw money at Lynn and another SP next winter to bridge that gap.

Their "transformation" won't take place overnight - it didn't for the Dodgers or Yankees either - but if Cohen's committed to building a complete organization like they did, they're in a position to be relevant the entire time they're doing it. Alderson's there to be the win-now guy (which he's proven capable of being) while Cohen puts the pieces to run things much more efficiently down the line.

I dont get the Dodgers comparison considering like the whole Dodgers team was built through the draft and smart trades. Throwing out a bunch of big dollar contracts never ends up smart.

[drewdat]

Hill will be 41 before season starts. That pushes the age issue a bit too far IMO.

But he's only pitched like 5 full seasons combined, so it's almost like he's 28

[Enscheff]

I dont get the Dodgers comparison considering like the whole Dodgers team was built through the draft and smart trades. Throwing out a bunch of big dollar contracts never ends up smart.

I think clv’s point is Alderson can use cash to build a win now club that contends while the long term plan is put in place to bring consistent results. At that point they will switch from Alderson to a more modern GM.

It could happen, but chances are the Mets will be the Mets and Mets all over the place making a huge Mets of things.

[clvclv]

I dont get the Dodgers comparison considering like the whole Dodgers team was built through the draft and smart trades. Throwing out a bunch of big dollar contracts never ends up smart.

Have to read that a little closer. They're in a position to spend right away to fill holes while building the infrastructure. Neither the Dodgers nor Yankees quickly turned into self-sustainable organizations right away - they both threw money at free-agents while they were getting their acts together. Turner's not homegrown. Betts isn't. Pollock isn't. They spent big dollars to keep Jansen when they weren't the juggernaut they are now. They found Muncy under a rock. A big chunk of the Yankees current roster came from somewhere else while Cashman was putting his scouting/player development/analytics people in place.

Like the Dodgers and Yankees, the Mutts now have an owner who won't let money get in the way. Once he's had time to get the organizational representatives in place to draft and develop well he'll start to reign spending in, but he's not going to mind spending big to have a winner for the few years it's going to take to do that. The reason he talked Alderson into running things at first is that he's not interested in having three or four 90-loss seasons while getting things together - I'd be willing to bet that he told Sandy not to worry about the bottom line for the first couple of years.

[Southcack77]

Have to read that a little closer. They're in a position to spend right away to fill holes while building the infrastructure. Neither the Dodgers nor Yankees quickly turned into self-sustainable organizations right away - they both threw money at free-agents while they were getting their acts together. Turner's not homegrown. Betts isn't. Pollock isn't. They spent big dollars to keep Jansen when they weren't the juggernaut they are now. They found Muncy under a rock. A big chunk of the Yankees current roster came from somewhere else while Cashman was putting his scouting/player development/analytics people in place.

Like the Dodgers and Yankees, the Mutts now have an owner who won't let money get in the way. Once he's had time to get the organizational representatives in place to draft and develop well he'll start to reign spending in, but he's not going to mind spending big to have a winner for the few years it's going to take to do that. The reason he talked Alderson into running things at first is that he's not interested in having three or four 90-loss seasons while getting things together - I'd be willing to bet that he told Sandy not to worry about the bottom line for the first couple of years.

You've been pretty gloomy lately. There is no reason to fear the Mets.

[Enscheff]

Every offseason folks tend to give too much credit to the team that spends the most cash. Whether that team is the Padres or the Phillies or the Mets, it’s always the same “won the offseason” hype that generally leads to a whole lot of nothing.

[clvclv]

You've been pretty gloomy lately. There is no reason to fear the Mets.

There's reason to fear everybody. At least in the short-term. Particularly teams that have owners with deep pockets and a desire to win. It looked like the Braves had finally turned the corner spending-wise before the virus hit, and EVERYBODY felt better when the expectation was that payroll was going to consistently be in the top 10 range and ~ $150 million. Had it stayed there, an Ozuna return would have been an afterthought, a play for Paxton/Quintana/Minor/Morton would be a given, and a signing of at least one of Melancon or Greene might have already taken place. When you come as close as the 2020 Braves did, more concentrated ownership gets that taste for it. With the situation involving Liberty, not so much. As others have *itched about before, having corporate ownership tends to tamp down optimism because the bottom line is ALWAYS going to be front-and-center as the main concern. More speculation - as always - but if someone like Arthur Blank was the person McGuirk and AA had to meet with when setting payroll and Ozuna's not just blowing smoke when he says he'd love to come back (obviously questionable), there's a legitimate chance that all the heavy-lifting would have been done by Thanksgiving with Ozuna signed and Melancon back. AA would just be waiting out the SP market to find out who was most interested in playing for a team with a shot to win.

Every franchise has to be careful with finances long-term, but having an owner (or competitive ownership group like the Dodgers) will always lend more optimism because they can be convinced that "if we bring the right guys in" you'll get your return through attendance/parking/concession revenue, playoff revenue, and merchandising money. On top of that - as the owner - you'll be the talk of the town and envy of your peers for a while.

Winning the offseason guarantees nothing at all. It certainly makes someone more dangerous on paper though.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Concentration and memory retention have been more difficult for me lately so I need a bit of help if someone can impart some info for me. My biggest question is just what has Liberty and/or Mcguirk said about 2021 payroll for 2021? Is it all speculation or personal opinions? I do not recall anything AA has said about potential payroll reduction anymore than in previous years which seems to be his normal approach to the off season. I do know he said last week that his free agent and trade targets were being kept an eye on.

[50PoundHead]

There's reason to fear everybody. At least in the short-term. Particularly teams that have owners with deep pockets and a desire to win. It looked like the Braves had finally turned the corner spending-wise before the virus hit, and EVERYBODY felt better when the expectation was that payroll was going to consistently be in the top 10 range and ~ $150 million. Had it stayed there, an Ozuna return would have been an afterthought, a play for Paxton/Quintana/Minor/Morton would be a given, and a signing of at least one of Melancon or Greene might have already taken place. When you come as close as the 2020 Braves did, more concentrated ownership gets that taste for it. With the situation involving Liberty, not so much. As others have *itched about before, having corporate ownership tends to tamp down optimism because the bottom line is ALWAYS going to be front-and-center as the main concern. More speculation - as always - but if someone like Arthur Blank was the person McGuirk and AA had to meet with when setting payroll and Ozuna's not just blowing smoke when he says he'd love to come back (obviously questionable), there's a legitimate chance that all the heavy-lifting would have been done by Thanksgiving with Ozuna signed and Melancon back. AA would just be waiting out the SP market to find out who was most interested in playing for a team with a shot to win.

Every franchise has to be careful with finances long-term, but having an owner (or competitive ownership group like the Dodgers) will always lend more optimism because they can be convinced that "if we bring the right guys in" you'll get your return through attendance/parking/concession revenue, playoff revenue, and merchandising money. On top of that - as the owner - you'll be the talk of the town and envy of your peers for a while.

Winning the offseason guarantees nothing at all. It certainly makes someone more dangerous on paper though.

To your overall point, yes, fear all. In a Hobbesian sense, seasons are cruel, brutal, and too short for every team but the winner.

Here's my take. I agree with Enscheff that there's always a boutique "winner of the off-season" or "winner of the trade deadline" storyline that fuels discussion, but often nothing more than discussion. As noted philosopher Bobby Cox once said (and I paraphrase): "You play 162 games for a reason."

In my estimation, the advantages for the deep-pockets teams are: (1) they have a greater margin for error, which can lead to (2) they can afford to pay players to play elsewhere (or find another deep-pockets team to swap bad contracts) at the end of an over-priced contract (or in the case of the Red Sox/Dodgers, an over-Priced contract). The Mets can probably go an extra-year on Realmuto because under Cohen, they can pay him to play somewhere else if his performance dips dramatically at or near the end of the deal.

The Braves--at least from outward appearances--can't do that. They are likely stuck paying Ender's contract whether or not he plays an inning in the Braves' outfield in 2021 and if the payroll is what most expect, that is going to hurt considerably more than if they were the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, etc. I think we saw that line of thinking up close with the Braves' decision on Donaldson last winter.

So that is my fear of the Mets ramping things up from their end. They still have to make solid decisions to compete, but they will also have a greater margin for error in that a bad contract won't unduly hamstring the franchise.