Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[clvclv]

To your overall point, yes, fear all. In a Hobbesian sense, seasons are cruel, brutal, and too short for every team but the winner.

Here's my take. I agree with Enscheff that there's always a boutique "winner of the off-season" or "winner of the trade deadline" storyline that fuels discussion, but often nothing more than discussion. As noted philosopher Bobby Cox once said (and I paraphrase): "You play 162 games for a reason."

In my estimation, the advantages for the deep-pockets teams are: (1) they have a greater margin for error, which can lead to (2) they can afford to pay players to play elsewhere (or find another deep-pockets team to swap bad contracts) at the end of an over-priced contract (or in the case of the Red Sox/Dodgers, an over-Priced contract). The Mets can probably go an extra-year on Realmuto because under Cohen, they can pay him to play somewhere else if his performance dips dramatically at or near the end of the deal.

The Braves--at least from outward appearances--can't do that. They are likely stuck paying Ender's contract whether or not he plays an inning in the Braves' outfield in 2021 and if the payroll is what most expect, that is going to hurt considerably more than if they were the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, etc. I think we saw that line of thinking up close with the Braves' decision on Donaldson last winter.

So that is my fear of the Mets ramping things up from their end. They still have to make solid decisions to compete, but they will also have a greater margin for error in that a bad contract won't unduly hamstring the franchise.

That's the huge part of the concern I originally voiced. If you add Realmuto and Springer to that offense, a couple pen arms (that won't be overly expensive given the glut of available ones for once) that can pitch in the 7th/8th innings, and you get full healthy seasons from Syndergaard and Stroman and you've got an instant contender - WITHOUT Alderson having to work very hard or make any complex decisions. Cohen simply has to write a few checks.

By the time they have to do anything your regular Mutts fan can't handle (who to trade, who to draft, international concerns), Cohen will have written a few more checks to bring in people much smarter than Alderson to handle those decisions.

[50PoundHead]

That's the huge part of the concern I originally voiced. If you add Realmuto and Springer to that offense, a couple pen arms (that won't be overly expensive given the glut of available ones for once) that can pitch in the 7th/8th innings, and you get full healthy seasons from Syndergaard and Stroman and you've got an instant contender - WITHOUT Alderson having to work very hard or make any complex decisions. Cohen simply has to write a few checks.

By the time they have to do anything your regular Mutts fan can't handle (who to trade, who to draft, international concerns), Cohen will have written a few more checks to bring in people much smarter than Alderson to handle those decisions.

But inherent in the advantage the Mets may have monetarily is that they can consider paying Realmuto and Springer five years to only realistically contribute for four years. You don't see many Pujols/Kevin Brown-esque contracts anymore (although Harper's deal with the Phillies borders on that) where a team is on the hook for big cash over an extended period of time past the player's legitimate use-by date, but one year isn't hard to swallow for a team with resources.

[Enscheff]

If the Mets try to buy their way into the postseason with 4-5 year FA contracts, then I take it as a good sign they are still the same old Mets.

[50PoundHead]

If the Mets try to buy their way into the postseason with 4-5 year FA contracts, then I take it as a good sign they are still the same old Mets.

Let's hope.

[Oklahomabrave]

In Olneys article today he said the Cubs are signaling to other teams they are willing to listen on all players including Báez. I’d be interested in Darvish, Happ, or Bryant.

[Carp]

In Olneys article today he said the Cubs are signaling to other teams they are willing to listen on all players including Báez. I’d be interested in Darvish, Happ, or Bryant.

Bryant should be fairly affordable from a prospect stand point, given his contract. Chicago and Cleveland prepared to unload some major stars. Could make for a really interesting off-season. Can we afford to lose the prospect capital it will likely take to get one of the top guys? Especially given the fact that Waters is our best available prospect with Anderson and Pache a virtual lock to not be traded.

[50PoundHead]

Bryant should be fairly affordable from a prospect stand point, given his contract. Chicago and Cleveland prepared to unload some major stars. Could make for a really interesting off-season. Can we afford to lose the prospect capital it will likely take to get one of the top guys? Especially given the fact that Waters is our best available prospect with Anderson and Pache a virtual lock to not be traded.

Agree. Our system is deep, but not populated with the kind of can't-miss guys that it might take to reel in one of the top-tier guys that may be on the move. I can see the Cubs basically giving Bryant away and I don't see them moving Happ, but we may not have the type of prospect pieces required to land some of the bigger fish.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Lots of talk about Springer being a Braves target. Same for Ozuna. Same for Bryant. Could the FO possibly have decided that now is the time to go for it?

Springer would cancel the need for keeping one of Pache or Waters. Bryant would probably demand Riley but only if Springer comes first. Duvall would also be considered a trade chip. Wilson may have some value. Wright not very much IMO.

[Hudson2]

Springer would be a big get and would set the outfield up for quite a while too. Baez at 3b would bring the same energy that Ozuna brought this past season. He’s versatile enough to play all the infield positions also. Looks like AA has a ton of options.

[Tapate50]

If we are dealing from a position of strength this could be a very good off season for us.

[Carp]

Lots of talk about Springer being a Braves target. Same for Ozuna. Same for Bryant. Could the FO possibly have decided that now is the time to go for it?

Springer would cancel the need for keeping one of Pache or Waters. Bryant would probably demand Riley but only if Springer comes first. Duvall would also be considered a trade chip. Wilson may have some value. Wright not very much IMO.

I would think Springer would almost certainly be a 1 year deal, like Ozuna and JD. So it shouldn't affect the value of both Pache and Waters to the big league club going forward. Wright certainly has more trade value than Wilson.

[NYCBrave]

Lots of talk about Springer being a Braves target. Same for Ozuna. Same for Bryant. Could the FO possibly have decided that now is the time to go for it?

Springer would cancel the need for keeping one of Pache or Waters. Bryant would probably demand Riley but only if Springer comes first. Duvall would also be considered a trade chip. Wilson may have some value. Wright not very much IMO.

One thing we've learned about this Front Office is they keep things very close to the vest. So any rumors we're hearing, are likely either made up or speculative.

[PawPawMaxwell]

I would think Springer would almost certainly be a 1 year deal, like Ozuna and JD. So it shouldn't affect the value of both Pache and Waters to the big league club going forward. Wright certainly has more trade value than Wilson.

Highly unlikely that Springer takes a 1 year deal. I cant agree that Wright has any trade value at the moment.

[PawPawMaxwell]

One thing we've learned about this Front Office is they keep things very close to the vest. So any rumors we're hearing, are likely either made up or speculative.

Agree that the front office is close mouthed but agents talk/start rumors and there are a lot of guys out there (the pundits) that are very close to selected GMs. Example, Rosenthal always had his ear to Wren and Hart.

[bravesfanforlife88]

Offseason schedule from today until Spring training...

Nov. 16: The 2021 Hall of Fame ballot will be released on this date. Just the ballot will be announced. The voting results and 2021 Hall of Fame class will be revealed at a later date. Here are the players eligible for this year's ballot. This is year nine of 10 on the ballot for Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Curt Schilling. It's a down year for first-timers, with Mark Buehrle and Torii Hunter representing the top players scheduled to join the ballot.

Nov. 20: Deadline for teams to add eligible minor leaguers to the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. Generally speaking, college players drafted no later than 2017 and high school players drafted no later than 2016 are Rule 5 Draft eligible this winter, as are players signed internationally no later than 2016. Among the notable Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects this winter are Tigers righty Matt Manning and Cleveland third baseman Nolan Jones. Expect both (and many others) to be added to the 40-man roster on this date. (There are usually several minor trades on this date as teams get their 40-man roster in order. The Aledmys Diaz for Trent Thornton trade was made on the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline two years ago, for example.)

Dec. 2: Non-tender deadline. This is the deadline for teams to offer their pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players a contract for 2021. They don't have to sign them just yet, but they do have to offer a contract. Players who do not receive a contract offer are considered "non-tendered" and become free agents. Notable players are non-tendered every offseason as teams decide their salary outweighs their performance, and the trade market turns up nothing exciting. Cesar Hernandez, Kevin Pillar, Blake Treinen, and Taijuan Walker were among those non-tendered last offseason.


It should be noted the expectation within the industry is there will be far more non-tenders than usual this offseason as teams get their payrolls in order following the shutdown. There are only so many ways to get money off the books, and non-tendering players is the easiest way to do it. If that happens, the free agent market will be flooded with players, and potentially drag down salaries because supply outweighs demand.

Dec. 6-10: MLB's annual Winter Meetings. They were scheduled to be held at the Omni Dallas Hotel in Texas this year, but MLB has canceled the Winter Meetings as an in-person event, and they will be held remotely instead. The annual owners meetings and GM Meetings, which typically take place in November, will take place remotely as well. The Winter Meetings are typically the busiest week of the offseason. They are chock full of trades and free agent signings and rumors.

Dec. 10: Rule 5 Draft. By rule, players selected in the Rule 5 Draft must remain on their new team's big-league roster all season in 2021, otherwise they must go through waivers and be offered back to their original team. With payrolls inevitably coming down next year because of the pandemic, inexpensive talent will be at a premium, so we could see more Rule 5 Draft activity than usual this offseason.


Teams are often looking for middle relievers, bench players, and/or lottery tickets in the Rule 5 Draft, and most players wind up back with their original team. Righty Rony Garcia stuck all year with the Tigers as the No. 1 pick in last offseason's Rule 5 Draft. Joe Biagini, Mark Canha, and Brad Keller are notable recent Rule 5 Draft success stories.

Jan. 15: Deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to submit salary figures. The player files what he believes he should be paid in 2021 while the team counters with that they believe the player should be paid in 2021. It is important to note the two sides can still agree to a contract of any size even after filing salary figures. The vast majority of arbitration-eligible players agree to a contract before filing salary figures. Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors released their salary arbitration projections in mid-October. Their model has proven to be quite accurate over the years, though the shutdown and short 60-game season really complicates things this year.

Jan. 15: The 2021 international signing period opens. The signing period typical runs July 2nd to June 25th each year, but MLB pushed it back because of the pandemic. (They're also laying the ground work for an international draft by setting the signing period neatly in one calendar year.) Here is MLB.com's list of this year's top 30 international prospects. Yoelqui Cespedes, Yoenis' half-brother, is the No. 1 prospect this year.


Mid-January: 2021 Hall of Fame class announced. The ballot is revealed in November, votes are compiled in the following weeks, then the results are announced in the dog days of the offseason. Schilling appeared on 70.0 percent of submitted ballots last year, just below the 75.0 percent threshold needed for induction, and he seems like a good bet to get over the hump this year. There's a good chance Schilling will be the only Hall of Fame selection this offseason.

Induction weekend is held each July in Cooperstown, New York, but the 2020 event was canceled because of the pandemic. Last year's four Hall of Fame selections (Derek Jeter, Marvin Miller, Ted Simmons, Larry Walker) will be honored alongside the 2021 Hall of Fame class next July.

Early-to-mid February: Arbitration hearings. Inevitably, a few arbitration-eligible players and their teams are unable to come to terms on a contract, and they wind up in front of an arbitration panel. Each side makes their case and the three-person panel picks either the salary the player filed or the salary the team filed, nothing in between. Again, teams and players can work out a contract of any size prior to a hearing, even after filing salary figures. Josh Hader and Jose Berrios were among the notable players to go to an arbitration hearing last year.

[Super]

Highly unlikely that Springer takes a 1 year deal. I cant agree that Wright has any trade value at the moment.

Wright definitely has some trade value. it isn't as high as we'd like, but he's not a bust by any means yet.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Wright definitely has some trade value. it isn't as high as we'd like, but he's not a bust by any means yet.

Maybe not a bust but seems to me he has to start over and prove his worth. Say you are the Rangers GM (just picked them because they are pitching starved } what is your offer to me for Wright?

[NYCBrave]

Was just reading an article on Ozuna's potential suiters, and the list is a lot shorter than I expected. Who knows, maybe he will surprise and settle for another 1 year deal. Essentially, it's the Braves, White Sox, Nationals, Astros and then some dark horses like the Marlins, Red Sox, Marlins and Giants. Many of the big market teams don't have a clear spot to offer Ozuna, like the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Angels.

[clvclv]

Was just reading an article on Ozuna's potential suiters, and the list is a lot shorter than I expected. Who knows, maybe he will surprise and settle for another 1 year deal. Essentially, it's the Braves, White Sox, Nationals, Astros and then some dark horses like the Marlins, Red Sox, Marlins and Giants. Many of the big market teams don't have a clear spot to offer Ozuna, like the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Angels.

I'm a big fan of the Smyly signing, but it's certainly understandable to question it. As mentioned in the other thread, it could signal all sorts of things - one of those being the similarity to the 2020 Hamels signing with the reduced AAV pointing to the reduced payroll capability. If you take it as the one year (or short-term) signings have to be roughly 2/3 as expensive as last winter ($18 million for Hamels vs. $11 million for Smyly) is it going to be wrong to assume that the OF bat also has to be in the $12 million range instead of Ozuna's $18 million last season?

One of the things I noticed in the article you mention is that Bowman didn't beat around the bush about Ozuna's defense - and it's probably fair to assume that he's been told that's something they're really uncomfortable with, even if it's just for next season. If that's the case, non-tendering Duvall to free up money to sign Ozuna might be out of the question.

[NYCBrave]

I'm a big fan of the Smyly signing, but it's certainly understandable to question it. As mentioned in the other thread, it could signal all sorts of things - one of those being the similarity to the 2020 Hamels signing with the reduced AAV pointing to the reduced payroll capability. If you take it as the one year (or short-term) signings have to be roughly 2/3 as expensive as last winter ($18 million for Hamels vs. $11 million for Smyly) is it going to be wrong to assume that the OF bat also has to be in the $12 million range instead of Ozuna's $18 million last season?

One of the things I noticed in the article you mention is that Bowman didn't beat around the bush about Ozuna's defense - and it's probably fair to assume that he's been told that's something they're really uncomfortable with, even if it's just for next season. If that's the case, non-tendering Duvall to free up money to sign Ozuna might be out of the question.

To me it's annoying that MLB is wasting time in not announcing the DH rule for next year or not. At least make an official statement one way or the other. Otherwise the AL teams have a total unfair advantage as in they already know what they're up against.