Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[DirkPiggler]

For those looking at the Cubs as the team looking to move bad contracts, try this one on...

Ender, Newk, and Touki for Schwarber.

Ender platoons with Hoerner in CF in 2021 while they're waiting for Brennen Davis to take over next season with Happ sliding over to LF (improving their defense substantially). Newk and Touki give them two cheap, controllable arms - whether for the rotation or the pen - so they can say they got SOMETHING for Schwarber rather than non-tendering him. The Braves get their platoon partner for Duvall WITHOUT increasing payroll (FanGraphs has Schwarber projected to make $8.155 million). Cubs' payroll doesn't increase (substantially anyway), so they can afford to hold onto Bryant to see if he bounces back and they can get something for him at the deadline. This also benefits the Braves since it gives us more time to evaluate whether Riley's adjustments are going to allow him to keep improving. If they don't and Bryant bounces back, you have the money to bid on him next winter since you didn't spend it on Ozuna or someone else this winter.

Sure that's a bit of an overpay, but adding the second arm is for taking Ender's money. You could probably get Bryant for the same type of offer NOW, but that doesn't help the 2021 payroll situation. If you could get Schwarber in that kind of salary-neutral deal, AA still has whatever amount is left after the Smyly signing to add the backup SS and C while bringing Melancon back AND a LH alternative to Riley. If there's enough money available to make a play for Ozuna/Springer/Brantley (like everyone hopes after signing Smyly), there would even be enough to add another veteran arm to compete for a rotation spot. If Duvall's platoon partner cost you nothing salary-wise, there's no reason to think that AA couldn't bring Melancon, Flowers, and Hechavarria back while adding one of Holt/Shaw/Moran, possibly even ANOTHER pen arm, and Mike Leake/Anibal Sanchez/Michael Fiers/King Felix with the money he has left.

I don't hate it, but I think you'd have to give them an arm with a little more future value to get them to take Ender back.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Does nothing for the Cubs with their stated intentions of reducing payroll and improving roster. Touki is a maybe but the other 2 Braves would increase payroll for Cubs.

[Chico]

If we're dealing with the Cubs Kyle Hendricks would be atop my list. He's signed at a very doable 14M per for the next 3 years. His low BB rate has to be attractive to AA

[Carp]

I feel pretty confident the Cubs would not do that trade. Schwarber likely has enough value to get back something decent without taking on any salary in return. And us adding 2 young but struggling pitchers isn't likely to move the needle.

[clvclv]

If we're dealing with the Cubs Kyle Hendricks would be atop my list. He's signed at a very doable 14M per for the next 3 years. His low BB rate has to be attractive to AA

You understand what types of prospects you'll have to give up for Hendricks, right?

[clvclv]

I feel pretty confident the Cubs would not do that trade. Schwarber likely has enough value to get back something decent without taking on any salary in return. And us adding 2 young but struggling pitchers isn't likely to move the needle.

It's certainly a stretch, no doubt. Just not sure how "decent" a return one season of Schwarber will net you. Can pretty easily make the argument that Rosario or Peralta would bring more since their defense isn't nearly as questionable and they can play every day.

If someone looks at Schwarber as their everyday answer in LF (or at DH) in 2021, maybe they give up more - if he's just the strong side of a platoon, why would you give up anything for him when you could just throw money at Pederson?

[PawPawMaxwell]

As bad as I think clv's deal is there is a Cubs blogger that wrote that Ian Anderson AND Pache for Bryant would be a dream deal.

[Enscheff]

As bad as I think clv's deal is there is a Cubs blogger that wrote that Ian Anderson AND Pache for Bryant would be a dream deal.

Yes, I'm sure it would be.

Does Cubslandia not understand that Bryant is a fringe non-tender candidate?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/...andidates.html

Some other interesting names on that list:

3B Shaw - career .803 OPS vs RHP
LF Rosario - career .818 OPS vs RHP
RF Mazara - career .781 OPS vs RHP

[seanyates]

If the Braves are dealing with the Cubs, then I want Happ.

[UNCBlue012]

LMAO!

PASSAN: BREAKING: New York Mets second baseman Robinson Cano has tested positive for a performance-enhancing drug and will be suspended for the entire 2021 season, sources familiar with the situation tell ESPN. He will forfeit a $24 million salary. News story will be up soon at ESPN.

[CJ9]

The big news there to me is that the Mets just freed up $24 million.

[CyYoung31]

The big news there to me is that the Mets just freed up $24 million.

Yep. Terrible news.

[50PoundHead]

Yes, I'm sure it would be.

Does Cubslandia not understand that Bryant is a fringe non-tender candidate?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/...andidates.html

Some other interesting names on that list:

3B Shaw - career .803 OPS vs RHP
LF Rosario - career .818 OPS vs RHP
RF Mazara - career .781 OPS vs RHP

You forgot Jace Peterson.

Seriously, some interesting back end of the rotation candidates on the list. Curious to see if the Braves sign one more starter.

[NYCBrave]

The big news there to me is that the Mets just freed up $24 million.

Yep. That's actually a big break for them

[Carp]

It's certainly a stretch, no doubt. Just not sure how "decent" a return one season of Schwarber will net you. Can pretty easily make the argument that Rosario or Peralta would bring more since their defense isn't nearly as questionable and they can play every day.

If someone looks at Schwarber as their everyday answer in LF (or at DH) in 2021, maybe they give up more - if he's just the strong side of a platoon, why would you give up anything for him when you could just throw money at Pederson?

Decent is subjective. I'm not saying he's gonna pull Waters or Langeliers or something outrageous. But he doesn't seem in any danger of getting non-tendered regardless, so he likely has positive value. I never said Rosario or Peralta would command less in a trade, so I'm not sure what relevance they have to the discussion. Pederson likely will cost quite a bit more in FA than what Schwarber is likely to make, so I imagine that would likely factor in such a decision.

[Skeeter31]

Ozuna to Mets now I would guess with that money freed up.

[NYCBrave]

Ozuna to Mets now I would guess with that money freed up.

The thing about Cano is, he's still signed through 2023. 24 mil in 2022 and 2023. I believe Mariners cover a portion of that. So the Mets are still on the hook in the future even though they freed up some money this year.

[Nerfherders]

I kinda feel like the team shouldn't be completely off the hook for the salary of a suspended player. It could lead to some shenanigans, maybe even sabotage, just to get out of a contract.

[clvclv]

Yes, I'm sure it would be.

Does Cubslandia not understand that Bryant is a fringe non-tender candidate?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/...andidates.html

Some other interesting names on that list:

3B Shaw - career .803 OPS vs RHP
LF Rosario - career .818 OPS vs RHP
RF Mazara - career .781 OPS vs RHP

That was the point of the fringy proposal (not that you were the one taking issue with the proposed deal).

The three you mention are legitimate non-tender candidates. Schwarber and Bryant are too albeit on lesser scales. The Jays, Twins, and White Sox have MLB-ready in-house replacements for Shaw, Rosario, and Mazara, so for them it's simply about allocating that money where it will do more good - they'll remain contenders if they use those funds to improve in other areas. Pretty sure everybody (including Jays fans) agrees that moving Vlad Jr. back or Bichette over to 3B isn't ideal, but if getting rid of Shaw's projected $5+ million pays half of what it would cost them to bring Simmons in to play SS does that make them better? The Twins can easily replace Rosario with Kirilloff/Rooker/maybe even Larnach - could that $10 million put them in position to bring back Odorizzi AND add Paxton? How much better would that make them?

The Cubs don't have in-house replacements for Bryant and Schwarber unless you believe David Bote and sliding Happ to LF with Almora or Roederer in CF are going to get you to the playoffs. The question becomes "are you better off with a couple of live arms for Schwarber"? There's no way he gets offered a QO, so you're not getting draft pick compensation if you keep him to play out the string in 2021. Even if you're not willing to take similar salary back to get a second arm in the deal, does anybody honestly believe keeping him this year wins the division for you?

The Indians are about to find out the same thing about Lindor that the Orioles learned about what kind of value one year of control of Machado was. $20 million for a year of what Bryant has provided over the last two years? Sure, I'll give you a few years worth of Newk or Touki - which one do you want?

Steamer projects Schwarber will put up a .239/.346/.499 line with 34 HRs over 131 games this year. Are you really going to give up much for him PLUS pay him $8 million to platoon with Duvall when the same system projects Pederson to put up a .248/.340/.501 line with 29 HRs over 122 games? That's cool, I'll keep the extra arms in case of injuries. After noticing Riley's Steamer projections, I don't think I'd even put him in a Bryant or Seager deal - spend that money where it can do more good - AA could bring in Pederson, Shaw, AND Melancon for what Bryant will make in 2021.

[clvclv]

Decent is subjective. I'm not saying he's gonna pull Waters or Langeliers or something outrageous. But he doesn't seem in any danger of getting non-tendered regardless, so he likely has positive value. I never said Rosario or Peralta would command less in a trade, so I'm not sure what relevance they have to the discussion. Pederson likely will cost quite a bit more in FA than what Schwarber is likely to make, so I imagine that would likely factor in such a decision.

Certainly don't disagree. My point is that if Schwarber costs you $8 million plus anything other than a couple throw-in level prospects, I'll non-tender Jackson (or not spend extra money on the pen) while signing Pederson (or trading something marginal for Rosario if they're going to non-tender him) and keep the arms for depth. I'm just not convinced that Pederson gets more than the $9-$10 million FG and MLBTR project he's going to get.