Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[Carp]

I don't know what Pederson gets, though I imagine it'll be a multi-year deal. And all things considered, I'd rather take the guy on the shorter contract.

[clvclv]

No doubt. That being said, if he gets the projected 2/$20 million I'd pay that and have him platoon with Duvall in LF this year and at DH in 2022 before I'd give up much value for one year of Schwarber without them taking Ender's money back OR putting someone like Ryan Tepera in the deal. Replacing Jackson in the pen with Tepera would save you $650K that you could put towards Melancon (or another veteran pen arm)/Shaw or Holt/or backup C or SS. Same thing for Rosario or Peralta even though they're capable of playing everyday without a platoon mate.

Talking to Minnesota about Rosario makes more sense since they already have an in-house replacement and need the money to spend on pitching - there's just no way AA could bribe them to take Ender's money back with another arm that doesn't really fit in the Braves' long-term plans anymore. Not that there's much chance that that would happen with the Cubs either, but slightly more - if sweetening it to Touki and Davidson instead of Newk made it easier for Hoyer to swallow Ender's money I could probably live with that since it gets you the guy on the one year deal like you mention. Same thing for Rosario, although I'm willing to bet that if AA were to call them today and offer Touki for him straight-up that there would be an announcement that Rosario was a Brave before the end of the day.

[Southcack77]

Does nothing for the Cubs with their stated intentions of reducing payroll and improving roster. Touki is a maybe but the other 2 Braves would increase payroll for Cubs.

I kind of think Touki might be appealing to someone like the Rays who value major league ready players and are good at fixing pitchers.

[Tapate50]

I kind of think Touki might be appealing to someone like the Rays who value major league ready players and are good at fixing pitchers.

With Tampa, Toukie turns into a 3 WAR Pitcher. No thanks.

[Carp]

With Tampa, Toukie turns into a 3 WAR Pitcher. No thanks.

Better than him going to Houston. At least Tampa is likeable.

[50PoundHead]

No doubt. That being said, if he gets the projected 2/$20 million I'd pay that and have him platoon with Duvall in LF this year and at DH in 2022 before I'd give up much value for one year of Schwarber without them taking Ender's money back OR putting someone like Ryan Tepera in the deal. Replacing Jackson in the pen with Tepera would save you $650K that you could put towards Melancon (or another veteran pen arm)/Shaw or Holt/or backup C or SS. Same thing for Rosario or Peralta even though they're capable of playing everyday without a platoon mate.

Talking to Minnesota about Rosario makes more sense since they already have an in-house replacement and need the money to spend on pitching - there's just no way AA could bribe them to take Ender's money back with another arm that doesn't really fit in the Braves' long-term plans anymore. Not that there's much chance that that would happen with the Cubs either, but slightly more - if sweetening it to Touki and Davidson instead of Newk made it easier for Hoyer to swallow Ender's money I could probably live with that since it gets you the guy on the one year deal like you mention. Same thing for Rosario, although I'm willing to bet that if AA were to call them today and offer Touki for him straight-up that there would be an announcement that Rosario was a Brave before the end of the day.

Do you approach the Twins before the non-tender deadline? With Kiriloff pretty much set to go, I'm guessing the Twins will let Rosario walk. I think Touki for Rosario is a fair deal and all, but why waste a bullet?

[nsacpi]

Does nothing for the Cubs with their stated intentions of reducing payroll and improving roster. Touki is a maybe but the other 2 Braves would increase payroll for Cubs.

The simpler trade is a pitcher for Schwarber. Someone like Touki, Davidson or Muller.

[nsacpi]

If the Braves are dealing with the Cubs, then I want Happ.

I wanted Happ last off-season when he would have been a lot cheaper. I don't think the Cubs are looking to deal him this off-season.

[CJ9]

Besides Muller, who were some of the other guys that needed to be added to the 40-man this offseason? Curious who we could lose in the Rule 5 draft.

[clvclv]

Do you approach the Twins before the non-tender deadline? With Kiriloff pretty much set to go, I'm guessing the Twins will let Rosario walk. I think Touki for Rosario is a fair deal and all, but why waste a bullet?

I probably would - but that's just me. Of course I would start low - say with Tarnok - but I'd increase it to De La Cruz/Davidson/Newk pretty quickly if one of them would get it done. They're going to want someone that has a chance to help quickly, regardless of whether that's in the rotation or the pen since they're trying to compete too. Touki would be the last resort - if they wanted more, I'd say thanks but no thanks (and might not go that far).

I'm relatively confident that you're right about them letting him walk before paying that money, but I'm also confident that none of the names we're discussing factor into our long-term plans either (other than maybe Touki as a late-inning weapon). It would be worth it to me because it means AA would avoid having to bid on one of the bats on the open market. Sure we expect most of the offers for non-elite talents to be low, but if the bidding for Pederson or Rosario creeps into the $12 million range instead of $10 million, that's $2 million you can't use to pay a backup SS or C. If saving that couple million bucks means you can bring Flowers back rather than using A-Jax (or rushing Contreras a little) or can bring back Melancon while non-tendering Jackson, it's worth it to me.

If we weren't so close I'd probably look at things differently, but as a mid-market team with limited resources there comes a time when you're just going to have to stop hoarding fringy prospects if you want to win it all - the Dodgers don't have to trade those guys because they can afford to shell out an extra couple million here and there for role players. I just don't see how the Braves can do that.

[Tapate50]

I’d think backup C is gonna be Contreras

[nsacpi]

I’d think backup C is gonna be Contreras

It would be sad if Late Bloomer has finally wilted.

[bravesfanMatt]

It would be sad if Late Bloomer has finally wilted.

I think he was an annual not a perineal

[Super]

I’d think backup C is gonna be Contreras

if there's a minor league season, tho, Contreras will not be getting very many ABs if he's on the major league team.
he'd probably play max of 2 games a week. do we want that for a young catcher?

[Carp]

The simpler trade is a pitcher for Schwarber. Someone like Touki, Davidson or Muller.

Huh?

That's pretty terrible for us. Muller is likely our top pitching prospect currently. It's probably him or Davidson. Schwarber doesn't have a considerable amount of value.

[Carp]

With Langeliers, Contreras, and Jackson, I think we have decent options as a back-up for TDA. But I wouldn't hate Flowers returning if it was for like 2 million or less.

[50PoundHead]

I probably would - but that's just me. Of course I would start low - say with Tarnok - but I'd increase it to De La Cruz/Davidson/Newk pretty quickly if one of them would get it done. They're going to want someone that has a chance to help quickly, regardless of whether that's in the rotation or the pen since they're trying to compete too. Touki would be the last resort - if they wanted more, I'd say thanks but no thanks (and might not go that far).

I'm relatively confident that you're right about them letting him walk before paying that money, but I'm also confident that none of the names we're discussing factor into our long-term plans either (other than maybe Touki as a late-inning weapon). It would be worth it to me because it means AA would avoid having to bid on one of the bats on the open market. Sure we expect most of the offers for non-elite talents to be low, but if the bidding for Pederson or Rosario creeps into the $12 million range instead of $10 million, that's $2 million you can't use to pay a backup SS or C. If saving that couple million bucks means you can bring Flowers back rather than using A-Jax (or rushing Contreras a little) or can bring back Melancon while non-tendering Jackson, it's worth it to me.

If we weren't so close I'd probably look at things differently, but as a mid-market team with limited resources there comes a time when you're just going to have to stop hoarding fringy prospects if you want to win it all - the Dodgers don't have to trade those guys because they can afford to shell out an extra couple million here and there for role players. I just don't see how the Braves can do that.

The question on non-tenders is always do you secure a guy you want before they hit the open market. I frankly don't know what the Twins would want. It would likely be major league-ready pitching and we do have some of that, but is that worth a guy who will probably be in Atlanta for one year. I'll have a stathead look it up, but from the naked eye (and I'm severely near-sighted), Rosario has terrible--almost Francoeurish--plate discipline. Swings at a ton of crap. The difference between him and Francoeur is that he puts the ball in play with more authority on a lot of those bad pitches (which encourages him to continue doing it). He's a decent LF although his surface-level stats don't look that great. Having seen a lot of him up here in Minnesota, he's done alright, but I can't put any kind of value on him with any level of certainty.

[salmagundy]

Braves have 3 open spots on the 40 man roster. Will they use any of those spots to protect someone from being rule 5 eligible?

Deadline is 6 PM tonight for that protection.

Players eligible for Rule 5 draft are defined by MLBTR to be:

Eligibility is dependent on a player’s age and the timing of his entry to the professional ranks. A player that signed at 18 years of age or younger and has five seasons of pro ball is Rule 5 eligible if he is not added to the 40-man roster in advance of the deadline. Players that signed at 19 or older and have four seasons of professional experience are also eligible to be selected if they’re not added to the 40-man roster tomorrow. (In other words, college draftees out of the 2017 class, high school draftees out of the 2016 class and most international amateurs signed in the 2016-17 international period are eligible this year if not protected.)

[50PoundHead]

Braves have 3 open spots on the 40 man roster. Will they use any of those spots to protect someone from being rule 5 eligible?

Deadline is 6 PM tonight for that protection.

Players eligible for Rule 5 draft are defined by MLBTR to be:

Eligibility is dependent on a player’s age and the timing of his entry to the professional ranks. A player that signed at 18 years of age or younger and has five seasons of pro ball is Rule 5 eligible if he is not added to the 40-man roster in advance of the deadline. Players that signed at 19 or older and have four seasons of professional experience are also eligible to be selected if they’re not added to the 40-man roster tomorrow. (In other words, college draftees out of the 2017 class, high school draftees out of the 2016 class and most international amateurs signed in the 2016-17 international period are eligible this year if not protected.)

Muller has been added to the 40-man, but here are the other guys that have to be on the 40-man or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft: Thomas Burrows (LHP), Jefrey Ramos (RHH OF), Riley Delgado (RHH IF), Tyler Neslony (LHH OF/1B), Hayden Deal (LHP), Gabriel Noguera (LHP), Lisandro Santos (LHP), Connor Johnstone (RHP), Corbin Clouse (LHP), Troy Bacon (RHP), Brandon White (RHP), and Miguel Jerez (LHP).

The list seems short to me. There are a lot of guys on the Gwinnett roster (RHP Josh Graham, C Jonathon Morales, RHP Kurt Hoekstra, and others) that are in the draftable pool. It's my guess is that those listed above are first-time decisions on whether to protect or not. Here's the Gwinnett roster for those interested: https://www.milb.com/gwinnett/roster

Why are these guys who haven't played above rookie league ball in some instances on the Gwinnett roster? Here's the answer. There is a major league phase and a minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. In the major league phase, major league teams draft an eligible player off of any minor league roster with the requirement that the drafted player remain on the major league team's 25-man (or maybe it's 26 now) roster or be offered back to the team from which the player was drafted. In the minor league phase, AAA franchises can draft off of lower level franchises. That prohibits a AAA team from drafting off of the roster of another AAA team. Unlike the major league phase, there is no requirement that the drafting team keep the drafted player on the roster. There have been a few finds in the minor league phase, but most of the players picked are longshots. Often toolsy guys who can't get those tools to work.

[CyYoung31]

Lol