Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[Southcack77]

Trying to think of reasons why the Braves might have money because I'd like to believe it.

Liberty is a corporate entity of which the Braves are a relatively insignificant part.

If they do budgets year to year, then it should be based on projected revenue. There is no need for Liberty to claw back any of the money they didn't reap in 2020.

It's not an individual owner or group of owners who got an unexpected haircut.

So it's possible there could be a much more business as usual posture than in other places.

[Enscheff]

So if true do we get to hear folks talk about how great it is to have a faceless corporate owner?

[NYCBrave]

So if true do we get to hear folks talk about how great it is to have a faceless corporate owner?

Haha! Ive gone back and forth on that one over the years. Used to hate it but now can see some benefit. One thing we certainly are able to avoid is the meddling owners who end up causing the team to make poor signings. Or the cheap owners who never really invest in the team. The only thing I'd like to see is that now that we are so close to a title, our owners kick in the extra money it takes to finish the job.

[clvclv]

Trying to think of reasons why the Braves might have money because I'd like to believe it.

Liberty is a corporate entity of which the Braves are a relatively insignificant part.

If they do budgets year to year, then it should be based on projected revenue. There is no need for Liberty to claw back any of the money they didn't reap in 2020.

It's not an individual owner or group of owners who got an unexpected haircut.

So it's possible there could be a much more business as usual posture than in other places.

One of the problems here is going to be that losses - for businesses in The Battery at least - will continue piling up year-round, not just during baseball season. Attendance/concession/parking revenue losses were huge, but they only belonged to the Braves and are relatively easy to track. The other parts of the entertainment sector are going to continue to get bludgeoned with the virus. How many of the restaurants/bars/shopping areas saw spikes last year between Thanksgiving and mid-January that are going to get kicked in the teeth this year? Rental income is going to take a significant hit pretty soon with less people traveling and shopping - how far will Liberty have to drop rents in The Battery to make sure there aren't empty storefronts?

[50PoundHead]

Haha! Ive gone back and forth on that one over the years. Used to hate it but now can see some benefit. One thing we certainly are able to avoid is the meddling owners who end up causing the team to make poor signings. Or the cheap owners who never really invest in the team. The only thing I'd like to see is that now that we are so close to a title, our owners kick in the extra money it takes to finish the job.

You talkin' 'bout pre-epiphany Ted?



Edit: Quesiton to clvclv. Is there office space in the Battery? I think retail will bounce back, if somewhat slowly, but I would not want to be in the commercial office real estate business right now. Those units may remain empty for a long, long time.

[NYCBrave]

You talkin' 'bout pre-epiphany Ted?



Edit: Quesiton to clvclv. Is there office space in the Battery? I think retail will bounce back, if somewhat slowly, but I would not want to be in the commercial office real estate business right now. Those units may remain empty for a long, long time.

This link provides more info on the office space there. Aside from it being the regional headquarters for Comcast, there are a few other office uses there. No interest in making this political, but have to wonder if Georgia not shutting stuff down as much as some of the other states actually helped the Battery revenue overall.

https://batteryatl.com/work/

[clvclv]

You talkin' 'bout pre-epiphany Ted?



Edit: Quesiton to clvclv. Is there office space in the Battery? I think retail will bounce back, if somewhat slowly, but I would not want to be in the commercial office real estate business right now. Those units may remain empty for a long, long time.

Haven't ever looked closely at the makeup of the businesses honestly. I agree that the retail will EVENTUALLY bounce back (hopefully anyway), but you have to wonder if Liberty won't have to cut back on rents for a while to keep those sites full - even if those stores are treading water (at best).

As NYC mentions, I'm not interested in expanding the political side of the discussion (and only follow the Georgia political landscape as far as it affects the broader national focus), but would assume that tons of office buildings/complexes are going to go belly-up moving forward regardless of where they're located (and which way the political winds are blowing). I'm constantly dealing with a large volume of lenders (Truist included), state (NC) and county officials, etc., and from a not so large step outside their organizations it seems that this mess has them MUCH closer to taking the plunge when it comes to reducing their centralized operations. One of the NC DMV accountants I've spoken with mentioned that he thinks they're going to have mass amounts of folks working from home for good. His "group" takes up 3 floors of one of the big office buildings in downtown Charlotte. It's probably just a matter of time before many businesses and state entities realize just how inefficient it is to rent office space for employees that only need a desk, high-speed internet, and a phone line to do their jobs just so they can keep an eye on them.

I have no idea how much of the commercial office space in The Battery houses these types of offices, but if those businesses give the baseball analytics crowd a peek at their books those will disappear quickly. I relocated my office to my house early last year and it cost $2,000 for a desk, less than $1,000 for a few filing cabinets, and a couple hundred bucks to set up a land line for the phone. If you're already buying new laptops for groups of employees to "keep in touch" from home anyway, that's not going to add to expenses, and the cost for the phones probably doesn't either since you're probably already paying for their cell phones. I was literally paying nothing for rent on Main Street - $300/month - but eliminating that outlay for just 12 months paid for the desk and filing cabinets that I'll probably still be using 20 years from now. I'm sure Comcast will need portions of what they currently have in The Battery since it's their regional HQ - conference rooms, offices for the higher-ups and their top level assistants, etc., but do they really need a whole building for that when 75% of the space houses people who could work from their dining room tables? My brother is head of one of Disney's IS groups, and he has an office not far from the park in Orlando. The funniest thing about it is that all his "underlings" (developers, etc.) are in Portland and on the west coast, so his "meetings" have been on Zoom (or whatever) for years and he only shows his face at his Orlando office about once a week.

[50PoundHead]

clvclv, I'll save some space by not inserting your thread, but the pandemic has had the same effect in downtown Minneapolis and downtown St. Paul (and some of the growing suburbs/exurbs as well). I'll let the green eyeshade types do the calculations, but I'm guessing most businesses are trying to figure where the tipping point is when balancing expected loss in productivity through off-site work versus savings from not paying rent on space. I've worked on property tax policy for the last thirty-plus years and I've had arguments with folks who have more degrees than I do on the topic about how the current system of property valuation on commercial office space is off base because the value of the actual work product in most white collar work has no connection to physical plant. I think one thing the pandemic is going to do is accelerate the hollowing out of urban centers and that is going to have some huge ripple effects on bonded indebtedness and other aspects of redevelopment in those cities.

[NYCBrave]

Not to get this thread too far off track. But here in NYC and especially where I work in Manhattan, they estimated 80% of office workers now work from home and haven't returned at all. It definitely will never be the same here because there are estimates that many employers will just get rid of their real estate since work from home is cheaper and working.

[bravesfanforlife88]

I live in Smyrna, about 5 minutes from the Battery. I work in Duluth, meaning I have to take I75 to I285 to I85 every day....it used to take me an hour every morning and in the evening to get to/from work.

Now it only takes me roughly 30 minutes.....there are still quite a few people not back to work.

[Enscheff]

We’ve been doing game development with all non-assembly line workers home, and hands-on on-platform testers in the office roughly half time. Even those testers can remotely log into our gaming machines now and perform a lot of testing from home, and all the test planning and bug reports can be written from home. So all tech work is being done just fine while thousands and thousands of square feet of office space sits empty.

It will be very interesting to see how the traditional workplace evolves in the next couple years, and how much that evolution allows folks to flee crowded urban areas.

[Tapate50]

We’ve been doing game development with all non-assembly line workers home, and hands-on on-platform testers in the office roughly half time. Even those testers can remotely log into our gaming machines now and perform a lot of testing from home, and all the test planning and bug reports can be written from home. So all tech work is being done just fine while thousands and thousands of square feet of office space sits empty.

It will be very interesting to see how the traditional workplace evolves in the next couple years, and how much that evolution allows folks to flee crowded urban areas.

its already happening. Lake Oconee area (SE of Atl) is BOOMING because people have realized they don't need to be present but just so much.

Most insurance UW is happening from home. I hear all kinds of stuff in the background now although that trend was put in motion a few years back.

[clvclv]

its already happening. Lake Oconee area (SE of Atl) is BOOMING because people have realized they don't need to be present but just so much.

Most insurance UW is happening from home. I hear all kinds of stuff in the background now although that trend was put in motion a few years back.

As more businesses change their models, I think a whole lot of people are going to be shocked when they see just how "mass" the mass exodus becomes. I literally live in the middle of nowhere (30 minutes east of Asheville, 90 minutes NW of Charlotte), and the growth here over the last 18 months is mind-boggling. The people relocating here aren't doing anything that will improve the local economy in the long run (or bringing any new jobs with them). There are so many retirees and people looking to escape metropolitan areas that it doesn't matter what kind of trash you put on the market, everything residential sells within 10 days for double what it was worth 5 years ago.

The problem is that there's no infrastructure here - there are huge pockets 15 minutes away from Main Street in this podunk town that you lose cell service and can only get SPORADIC satellite internet access (our fearless leader can tell everyone all about that - he just experienced it for himself recently). As crazy as it sounds, that's not slowing ANYTHING down - I know several builders and realtors that have simply had to stop answering their phones. Completely off-topic, but since it's already here...http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/112...19_impacts.asp

50 mentioned the suburbs - there are about 40,000 full-time residents in this county, and we'll be a suburb of Asheville within 5 years if things continue at this rate.

[NYCBrave]

As more businesses change their models, I think a whole lot of people are going to be shocked when they see just how "mass" the mass exodus becomes. I literally live in the middle of nowhere (30 minutes east of Asheville, 90 minutes NW of Charlotte), and the growth here over the last 18 months is mind-boggling. The people relocating here aren't doing anything that will improve the local economy in the long run (or bringing any new jobs with them). There are so many retirees and people looking to escape metropolitan areas that it doesn't matter what kind of trash you put on the market, everything residential sells within 10 days for double what it was worth 5 years ago.

The problem is that there's no infrastructure here - there are huge pockets 15 minutes away from Main Street in this podunk town that you lose cell service and can only get SPORADIC satellite internet access (our fearless leader can tell everyone all about that - he just experienced it for himself recently). As crazy as it sounds, that's not slowing ANYTHING down - I know several builders and realtors that have simply had to stop answering their phones. Completely off-topic, but since it's already here...http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/112...19_impacts.asp

50 mentioned the suburbs - there are about 40,000 full-time residents in this county, and we'll be a suburb of Asheville within 5 years if things continue at this rate.

It will certainly be interesting to see if a mass exodus ensues to the suburbs. An exodus happened from NYC during the start of the pandemic to the surrounding suburbs. But I've read stories of people who are now bored out of their mind and regretting the decision already. I suspect the ones happy with the move never were going to stay in the city long term anyway. I live in Manhattan and love city life. I'm 3 stops from Yankee stadium to check out games as a casual fan and have a minimal commute to work and there is always stuff going on. It's not for everyone but there's nothing like it if that's the lifestyle you prefer. It's certainly not the same as it was pre-pandemic, and it might never be here, but I'm not one of those ready to jump to the suburbs because I can work from home part of the time.

[bravesfanMatt]

I work in banking and remote working and reduced face to face had already started. This pandemic has just amplified the rate of doing it. We have made no plans for our engineering group to go back in. The whole banking industry will be online in less than ten years imo.

[clvclv]

OK - there's AA's "Ace" - how far is he willing to go to get him???

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/...ell-trade.html

Snell/Soroka/Fried/Anderson wins you at least one title - would Wright, Waters, and one of the Catchers get him?

[Enscheff]

Bowman just wrote that the Braves may still be considering Morton. If true, that’s a shocking amount of cash to spend on the rotation considering we expect them to cut payroll. The homer in me wants to take this article as a sign the Braves may not reduce payroll much...or at all.

A payroll of $150M in 2021 would be absolutely amazing.

[NYCBrave]

Didn't see it posted, but apparently Soroka was throwing today for the first time since his injury. He also has a lot of hair now...

https://www.mlb.com/news/mike-soroka-resumes-throwing

[NYCBrave]

OK - there's AA's "Ace" - how far is he willing to go to get him???

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/...ell-trade.html

Snell/Soroka/Fried/Anderson wins you at least one title - would Wright, Waters, and one of the Catchers get him?

Doubtful. A trade for Snell would hurt us a lot more than that. He's got 3 years/30 million left on his contract. They'd probably want a young major league ready player plus at least one or two top prospects. Plus it's the Rays, they always make a trade that ends up being good for them.

[chop2chip]

Bowman just wrote that the Braves may still be considering Morton. If true, that’s a shocking amount of cash to spend on the rotation considering we expect them to cut payroll. The homer in me wants to take this article as a sign the Braves may not reduce payroll much...or at all.

A payroll of $150M in 2021 would be absolutely amazing.

Bowman mentioned in the same article the Braves are interested in Kris Bryant.

A lot of indicators payroll may not come down, but this is obviously going to be contingent on the fan situation next year.