Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[Hudson2]

Love him. If there is not a Dh next year I hesitate.

I’m not sure many teams will want big money deals going into the work stoppage in two years.

I think he will go and we will look to strike gold three years in a row with another one year slugger deal.

I know we hit two years in a row on a slugger but trying that won’t work every year. Eventually we’ll have to pay somebody. Ozuna is as good of a bet as anybody in FA. He seems to be a fun teammate too.

[Southcack77]

I realize this. But we already have a fairly expensive BP and we didn't sign Smith to be set-up man/swing man. Not only that, but Melancon is no spring chicken. May be we bring one of those guys back, but I would lean more on the side of cost cutting given the unknown's going into 2021. Maybe if a vaccine is approved and available by Dec. that will change. But I can't imagine teams will be lining up to pay 35 year old relievers 5-10% of their payroll during the current economy. Especially when you already have viable options.

I understand.

I don't have any idea what the Braves payroll is going to look like next season or what the free agent market will end up looking like. Hell, we don't even know what the rules will be.

But I could see how going cheap on the rotation, signing an OF and making another overplay for a bullpen could end up being the strategy that falls to them. I could see middle range quality relievers being something that no one was particularly interested in paying.

Braves are fortunate not to have a ton of major holes that don't have internal solutions.

[NYCBrave]

Put me in the camp who does NOT want to re-sign Ozuna for what it would likely cost. I'll start by saying he's had an amazing season and love the energy and fun he brings to the team. But I'm always leery of guys putting up huge numbers in their contract year. This is likely by far the best we will ever see of Ozuna and it's only downhill from here. Add in the fact he literally can't play the field and he's not someone Id want to commit to long term.

[NinersSBChamps]

The DH thing is here to stay I think. Who else is going to be an outfielder for this team besides Acuña?
Ozuna had an awesome year and yes he probably will decline some, but you aren’t getting close to his production with anyone else.

[NYCBrave]

The DH thing is here to stay I think. Who else is going to be an outfielder for this team besides Acuña?
Ozuna had an awesome year and yes he probably will decline some, but you aren’t getting close to his production with anyone else.

It's easy to say that following a 60+ game breakout. But he has never put up even close to these kind of stats before. So you can't assume he will produce at this level as opposed to going back to his previous levels.

[thewupk]

The DH thing is here to stay I think. Who else is going to be an outfielder for this team besides Acuña?
Ozuna had an awesome year and yes he probably will decline some, but you aren’t getting close to his production with anyone else.

You aren't going to get Ozuna production from Ozuna next year either.

[Enscheff]

Folks expecting AA to suddenly shift gears and stop doing what made the Braves successful the last 3 years are being a bit naïve. It's baffling that it's not obvious by now.

Low risk FA signings, and trades for MLB players with little surplus value...to supplement a largely homegrown roster. It is quite literally Dodgers-lite in Atlanta.

[Enscheff]

Put me in the camp who does NOT want to re-sign Ozuna for what it would likely cost. I'll start by saying he's had an amazing season and love the energy and fun he brings to the team. But I'm always leery of guys putting up huge numbers in their contract year. This is likely by far the best we will ever see of Ozuna and it's only downhill from here. Add in the fact he literally can't play the field and he's not someone Id want to commit to long term.

Watching Ozuna play the OF was shocking. I've never seen a worse throwing arm, and he runs like his hamstrings are both strained. He looks like he's throwing with the wrong arm.

[MadduxFanII]

I think one of the questions with Ozuna is, if you give him a full, normal spring training and off-season, can he improve to the point where he's a standard terrible outfielder instead of being literally unplayable out there? You want him DHing at this point either way, but if he can stand in left field once a week or so for the next couple years without doing anything catastrophically bad, that has real value.

For the sake of forward-looking analysis, you probably have to assume he's going to be unplayably bad in left and needs to be a 162-game DH. I certainly don't think you can carry him on an NL team without the designated hitter.

[bravesfanforlife88]

Put me in the camp who does NOT want to re-sign Ozuna for what it would likely cost. I'll start by saying he's had an amazing season and love the energy and fun he brings to the team. But I'm always leery of guys putting up huge numbers in their contract year. This is likely by far the best we will ever see of Ozuna and it's only downhill from here. Add in the fact he literally can't play the field and he's not someone Id want to commit to long term.

Ozuna did an interview this summer after his hot start where he said that he showed up to spring training out of shape. Said that he had celebrated too much during the offseason. Then when spring training was shut down, his wife and daughter talked him into getting in shape. He did that and showed up to summer camp ripping the cover off the ball..

Imagine when he gets what he has earned....

[Skeeter31]

Ozuna did an interview this summer after his hot start where he said that he showed up to spring training out of shape. Said that he had celebrated too much during the offseason. Then when spring training was shut down, his wife and daughter talked him into getting in shape. He did that and showed up to summer camp ripping the cover off the ball..

Imagine when he gets what he has earned....

Yeah imagine when a team signs him to a 4-5 year contract and he literally has nothing to play for as his money is guaranteed. He’ll show up to spring training in 2022 looking like Pablo Sandoval.

[NYCBrave]

Ozuna did an interview this summer after his hot start where he said that he showed up to spring training out of shape. Said that he had celebrated too much during the offseason. Then when spring training was shut down, his wife and daughter talked him into getting in shape. He did that and showed up to summer camp ripping the cover off the ball..

Imagine when he gets what he has earned....

Exactly. I wouldn't count on him to keep in peak shape once the money is earned. What incentive is there??

[Super]

Exactly. I wouldn't count on him to keep in peak shape once the money is earned. What incentive is there??

...could you not say this about literally any player who signs a LT deal..?

[CyYoung31]

...could you not say this about literally any player who signs a LT deal..?

I mean, Ozuna is obviously not as hard working as Bryce Harper.

[NYCBrave]

...could you not say this about literally any player who signs a LT deal..?

Depends on the makeup of that played and what motivates them. Not everyone is created equal.

[50PoundHead]

I mean, Ozuna is obviously not as hard working as Bryce Harper.

Harper is probably happy he's able to get back in the gym earlier than was expected.

[zbhargrove]

It's easy to say that following a 60+ game breakout. But he has never put up even close to these kind of stats before. So you can't assume he will produce at this level as opposed to going back to his previous levels.

I mean, dude had 5 fWAR in 2017 with a 143 wRC+

That's pretty elite.

[Super]

Depends on the makeup of that played and what motivates them. Not everyone is created equal.

i'm confused about the assumption that Ozuna will slack off? what do we know about his "makeup"?

[zbhargrove]

The interesting thing about Marcell is how his walk rate blossomed this year. Is it just a small sample or a growing approach? He has a career 8% walk rate and this year its 14.2%... He has steadily increased his walk rate every year except for his first year with Cards in 2018 and an early year with the Marlins in 2015.

2013: 4.5%
2014: 6.7%
2015: 6.1%
2016: 7.1%
2017: 9.4%
2018: 6.1%
2019: 11.3%
2020: 14.2%

[clvclv]

The interesting thing about Marcell is how his walk rate blossomed this year. Is it just a small sample or a growing approach? He has a career 8% walk rate and this year its 14.2%... He has steadily increased his walk rate every year except for his first year with Cards in 2018 and an early year with the Marlins in 2015.

2013: 4.5%
2014: 6.7%
2015: 6.1%
2016: 7.1%
2017: 9.4%
2018: 6.1%
2019: 11.3%
2020: 14.2%

That's always going to be a problem - what is and is not a SSS is always going to be a moving target.

Are we seeing the "new Freddie" improving with age and experience or is this a mirage? Acuna's BB rate is way up isn't it? Is he really improving? He's looked really bad at times.

For as much as the numbers (particularly the newer ones) paint good pictures, it's pretty easy to manipulate them to tell the story you're looking to tell - just ask Trump's accountant.

Just apply the same number that someone decides the adequate sample size is across the board - don't say "this is what to expect going forward" for one player then turn around and say "that's just a hot week/month/half-season/whatever" when talking about another. If we've seen enough data about Riley's 2020 ABs to make some kind of statement about his adjustments, why is it wrong to say something about Ozuna/Duvall/whoever?

I have no clue where the numbers for a fair sample size should be set, but they always seem to change depending on the point someone's trying to make.