Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[Enscheff]

you don't know his work habits. that's the point.
or do you? that's why i asked specific questions about his time in the film room (a standard you cited).
clearly he didn't spend much time "in the film room" because he could barely hit this season, right?

I don't follow the argument you're trying to make against everyone.

Are you suggesting it's a good idea for a team with a payroll of $120M-$140M to give a guy Josh Donaldson money into his mid-30s when he already can't play defense? Or that Ozuna will sign for less, and the Braves can take on that contract?

Are you assuming the DH will be around next year, and the Braves can stick his bat there? Or that he is acceptable in LF for a full season if there is no DH?

Are you arguing that some guys don't have work habit issues that would accelerate their declines? Or just that we can't possibly know this about Ozuna based on a single anecdote?

I suspect a guy who can't play defense at the age of 29 (he literally can't throw or run) is probably not going to age well. Whatever caused him to go from being CF-capable in 2014 to DH-only in 2020 before he even turned 30 is probably going to continue causing decline. Whether or not that something is a poor work ethic isn't really the issue. The issue is the extremely rapid decline in everything other than swinging a bat. Seems like a terrible gamble to hold up even medium term, but that's just my speculation.

[bravesfanMatt]

I don't follow the argument you're trying to make against everyone.

Are you suggesting it's a good idea for a team with a payroll of $120M-$140M to give a guy Josh Donaldson money into his mid-30s when he already can't play defense? Or that Ozuna will sign for less, and the Braves can take on that contract?

Are you assuming the DH will be around next year, and the Braves can stick his bat there? Or that he is acceptable in LF for a full season if there is no DH?

Are you arguing that some guys don't have work habit issues that would accelerate their declines? Or just that we can't possibly know this about Ozuna based on a single anecdote?

I suspect a guy who can't play defense at the age of 29 (he literally can't throw or run) is probably not going to age well. Whatever caused him to go from being CF-capable in 2014 to DH-only in 2020 before he even turned 30 is probably going to continue causing decline. Whether or not that something is a poor work ethic isn't really the issue. The issue is the extremely rapid decline in everything other than swinging a bat. Seems like a terrible gamble to hold up even medium term, but that's just my speculation.

So nothing more than a 5 year contract?!?

[Tapate50]

So nothing more than a 5 year contract?!?

Four with a giant player option

[Oklahomabrave]

I wonder how much each extra playoff series we have had an impact on next years payroll? Does this extra five game series give us a tad more?

[NYCBrave]

I don't follow the argument you're trying to make against everyone.

Are you suggesting it's a good idea for a team with a payroll of $120M-$140M to give a guy Josh Donaldson money into his mid-30s when he already can't play defense? Or that Ozuna will sign for less, and the Braves can take on that contract?

Are you assuming the DH will be around next year, and the Braves can stick his bat there? Or that he is acceptable in LF for a full season if there is no DH?

Are you arguing that some guys don't have work habit issues that would accelerate their declines? Or just that we can't possibly know this about Ozuna based on a single anecdote?

I suspect a guy who can't play defense at the age of 29 (he literally can't throw or run) is probably not going to age well. Whatever caused him to go from being CF-capable in 2014 to DH-only in 2020 before he even turned 30 is probably going to continue causing decline. Whether or not that something is a poor work ethic isn't really the issue. The issue is the extremely rapid decline in everything other than swinging a bat. Seems like a terrible gamble to hold up even medium term, but that's just my speculation.

Well said

[50PoundHead]

Weird off-season all-around coming up. I think the Braves have a few holes to fill and with the question marks surrounding the budget ( situation facing all franchises), it will be interesting to see how they attempt to fill those holes.

I am interested to see what Ozuna's market will be. I would be very wary of investing heavily in him. As Enscheff said, he was a CF through 2016 and he can't even play the OF now. He's a DH now and if there's a universal DH, he's worth considerable contemplation and that's what will save the market for him. He can clearly still hit, but that's about all he can do now.

[Russ2dollas]

So far it’s been clear aa doesn’t like multi year fa contracts. The Will Smith deal was out of character.

Now we have covid plus a work stoppage after next year. I’m not sure why people think aa is signing a big money four plus year deal. Maybe, but unlikely.

The only reason Bauer comes up is he is looking at a one year deal.

Smart money is on ozuna walking and aa looking to go 3/3 on one yr sluggers

[Southcack77]

So far it’s been clear aa doesn’t like multi year fa contracts. The Will Smith deal was out of character.

Now we have covid plus a work stoppage after next year. I’m not sure why people think aa is signing a big money four plus year deal. Maybe, but unlikely.

The only reason Bauer comes up is he is looking at a one year deal.

Smart money is on ozuna walking and aa looking to go 3/3 on one yr sluggers

I think he's against high risk multi-year deals. Given the age of most free agents and the payroll limitations of the Braves for stars in their primes, the pool of likely multi-year free agent signings is probably relative shallow.

It's a logical extension of thinking that starting pitching is risky and mostly suited to only going two times through the order, to invest in deeper, higher quality bullpens, when the market doesn't fall to you.

[Super]

I don't follow the argument you're trying to make against everyone.

Are you suggesting it's a good idea for a team with a payroll of $120M-$140M to give a guy Josh Donaldson money into his mid-30s when he already can't play defense? Or that Ozuna will sign for less, and the Braves can take on that contract?

Are you assuming the DH will be around next year, and the Braves can stick his bat there? Or that he is acceptable in LF for a full season if there is no DH?

Are you arguing that some guys don't have work habit issues that would accelerate their declines? Or just that we can't possibly know this about Ozuna based on a single anecdote?

I suspect a guy who can't play defense at the age of 29 (he literally can't throw or run) is probably not going to age well. Whatever caused him to go from being CF-capable in 2014 to DH-only in 2020 before he even turned 30 is probably going to continue causing decline. Whether or not that something is a poor work ethic isn't really the issue. The issue is the extremely rapid decline in everything other than swinging a bat. Seems like a terrible gamble to hold up even medium term, but that's just my speculation.

i have no issue if someone doesn't want to give Ozuna a JD type contract based on his age and already-poor defense. i'm with that, i'm not paying him long-term (unless of course it's more than reasonable, which it won't be). i agree, it's pretty clear he isn't going to age well. i do think he'll keep hitting tho.

my issue is someone claiming he's going to slack off and stop working hard once he's paid. i don't think there's much of anything to support that. getting out of shape for a couple of weeks in the offseason doesn't mean anything to me by itself. and then somehow "time in the film room" (????) came up. my position is people a leaping to a bunch of conclusions based on very little.

[bravesfanforlife88]

Early candidate for AA Donaldson/Ozuna type signing...

Ryan Braun....I hate the dude but is coming off a down year, and the Brewers are likely to just pay him his $4m buyout instead of $15m for next season. Bat could play well in Atlanta.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Early candidate for AA Donaldson/Ozuna type signing...

Ryan Braun....I hate the dude but is coming off a down year, and the Brewers are likely to just pay him his $4m buyout instead of $15m for next season. Bat could play well in Atlanta.

Age and history will not play well with the Braves

[Nerfherders]

There are some intriguing FA that may be ripe for a 1-year show me deal, but it may be dependent on if the DH persists. Edwin Encarnacion is one such player. Carlos Santana, Joc Pederson, and Justin Turner could also be possible. I also like Mark Canha.

[Skeeter31]

I wonder how much each extra playoff series we have had an impact on next years payroll? Does this extra five game series give us a tad more?

I would assume little to none, as there is no revenue being generated by having asses in seats. Playoff runs earn teams money by selling out their stadiums. We played 2 home games to no fans and are now going to go play in Texas. Even the little bit we’ll earn in TV or radio revenue is nothing compared to what we would have earned in ticket sales.

Payroll will be much lower next season. My guess is in the 110-115M range.

[bravesfanforlife88]

I would assume little to none, as there is no revenue being generated by having asses in seats. Playoff runs earn teams money by selling out their stadiums. We played 2 home games to no fans and are now going to go play in Texas. Even the little bit we’ll earn in TV or radio revenue is nothing compared to what we would have earned in ticket sales.

Payroll will be much lower next season. My guess is in the 110-115M range.

Braves did announce they will sell tickets to their watch party for this series. Will be held inside the stadium

[bravesfanMatt]

Puig back in play next year as a cheap platoon partner. He hits righties well. Right. Duvall/Puig then maybe a cheaper DH type while we break in pache.

[PawPawMaxwell]

I would assume little to none, as there is no revenue being generated by having asses in seats. Playoff runs earn teams money by selling out their stadiums. We played 2 home games to no fans and are now going to go play in Texas. Even the little bit we’ll earn in TV or radio revenue is nothing compared to what we would have earned in ticket sales.

Payroll will be much lower next season. My guess is in the 110-115M range.

Overall, ticket sales add a small percentage of revenue. A normal TV contract OTOH is treasure. I do agree that ticket sales are valuable relative to player contracts but not so much to overall payroll.

[bravesfanMatt]

Braves did announce they will sell tickets to their watch party for this series. Will be held inside the stadium

Sweet. Payroll now 115.2 million.

[Super]

Puig back in play next year as a cheap platoon partner. He hits righties well. Right. Duvall/Puig then maybe a cheaper DH type while we break in pache.

i think you need to add a bigger bat than that if you're losing Ozuna.

[Super]

say the DH is here to stay, what would Ozuna realistically cost?
there aren't many big bats available.

[Southcack77]

say the DH is here to stay, what would Ozuna realistically cost?
there aren't many big bats available.

Maybe I'm being dense, but I don't see why his value would necessarily be a lot higher.

3/54?