Non elite prospects turning into elite players is literally reaching their 1%. But please, carry on with your silly semantics argument into more threads.
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Non elite prospects turning into elite players is literally reaching their 1%. But please, carry on with your silly semantics argument into more threads.
I suspect some people around here don’t fully understand how fortunate the Braves have been with the hit rate of their position prospects during this run. Since we’ve been spoiled with hit after hit, some are deluded into thinking Riley’s success was a forgone conclusion.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
Seriously. The Braves hitting on virtually every serious position player prospect is, in fact, a “black swan” eventuality.
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UNCBlue012
Well-known member
I've been slightly out of the loop the last few weeks, yet most of the same players are still available. lmao. MLB offseason is so brutal.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I think baseball is in the annual game of chicken. The big names left are going to hold out as long as possible and see which team gets jumpy and over pays. Teams are going to wait out players and see if one gets jumpy and takes a pillow deal. Probably not much happening until closer to spring.
It is nice when your team is pretty well stacked and ready and can wait to see if a jumpy player lands in your lap.
It is nice when your team is pretty well stacked and ready and can wait to see if a jumpy player lands in your lap.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Solid two year run with the Braves that fizzled at the end. Overal, a remarkable career that should have ended years ago if not for reinventing himself. I wonder if he’ll linger around the team in some capacity.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
I think so. He loves the Braves, and routinely posts about it on social media
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Austin Riley was given a B+ grade by Sickels and was a top 40 prospect by most peoples rankings and he was ranked this highly because of his chance to develop into a very good player. He wasnt an "elite" prospect but he had elite power for a prospect his age. Thus he had potential to be an elite player if he had a decent batting average/OBP. If he even had a below average BA/OBP he still would have been an average to above average player given his power. Riley was pushed aggressively as he developed and reached the majors at the age of 22. If they had simply left him in leagues more he would have put up better stats. When i see a player extremely young for AA and AAA destroying those leagues with not just elite raw power but elite current power I dont consider it a miracle that player develops into an elite player.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
If someone wants to say its 1% odds that all these bat develop I wouldnt be arguing with it. Riley was a good bet to be an average or better hitter based on his power but I said he had about a 25% chance to be an .850 OPS hitter. Thats far from a foregone conclusion he would be succesful.
bravesfanforlife88
Well-known member
Aroldis Chapman to the pirates 1 year $10.5m
TURBO
Sexist Pig
He will be traded
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Its a smart move. No long term risk. Makes the team better..... in the first half atleast. Likely to get some prospects back who have several years at close to league minimum service time back.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Not a forgone conclusion, but also not a black swan event.
striker42
Well-known member
While we've been fortunate for sure, let's not overlook the job of self scouting the Braves have done. They've been able to largely identify the guys they should keep and those they shouldn't. So while we're fortunate, it hasn't all been luck. As Branch Rickey said, luck is the residue of design.
Find another team that has hit on every single position prospect coming out of a rebuild to the extent they built the best offense of all time. You can’t because it hasn’t happened, which is why the Braves had the best offense of all time.
Even Pache, who was the only notable flop, was used to acquire a major position player. The closest I can think of is the Indians back in the early 90s.
Even Pache, who was the only notable flop, was used to acquire a major position player. The closest I can think of is the Indians back in the early 90s.
We definitely missed on Braden Shewmake, though I guess he was never ranked inside the top 100 at any point. More of draft miss than a top prospect missing.
Probably the biggest bust other than Pache is Waters. We gave up Drew Waters for a draft pick and used the pick to draft JR Ritchie. I guess JR Ritchie will determine whether or not that was a good use of resources.
IMO, Waters still seems like a guy who could make a living as back-up OFer or potentially as the strong side of a platoon. Still only 25 and made some major improvements to his K rate and exit velocities last year.
Probably the biggest bust other than Pache is Waters. We gave up Drew Waters for a draft pick and used the pick to draft JR Ritchie. I guess JR Ritchie will determine whether or not that was a good use of resources.
IMO, Waters still seems like a guy who could make a living as back-up OFer or potentially as the strong side of a platoon. Still only 25 and made some major improvements to his K rate and exit velocities last year.
DirkPiggler
Well-known member
It's not even the fact that they all hit...add in that pretty much all the guys traded other than Contreras have failed to meet expectations. If a team hits on that many prospects they probably are going to have a Jeff Bagwell or two in there that they gave away for a rental or some other win now move.