Well let’s see how many other counties will be responsible for this outside of our own deep state.
2024 Field
- Thread starter Jaw
- Start date
Well let’s see how many other counties will be responsible for this outside of our own deep state.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Very good point from this guy.
Crazy no one’s looted a Best Buy for “survival” reasons yet
Not sure anyone serious thinks J6 was anything more than a FBI setup at this point.
You are nothing if not consistent.
Their model probably has two things:
1) An incumbent advantage that I don’t actually agree is applicable here.
2) Reasonably favorable poll results in several swing states.
I’m not optimistic about November, but I do think some of the victory laps in the past month by prominent conservatives have been a bit premature. Trump has been a *deeply* unpopular figure for a long time and while Biden is as well, I don’t think this is the slam dunk some are painting it to be.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Incumbents are generally hard to beat. Based on the formula by the Professor who always predicts correctly Biden is in a strong position but I think conventional wisdom can be thrown out when Trump is involved. I don't think Republicans can win outright anymore. Democrats can only beat themselves. If both sides are energized and motivated Democrats win every time. Trump did a great job of energizing both sides in 2020. Now Democrats are complacent and Trump and the fake news media have Republicans foaming at the mouth excited to vote.
Right now, Biden is deeply unpopular, with an approval rating below 40% since March of this year. His favorability rating currently sits at 38.7. I know Trump is unpopular as well, but Biden can't win with those numbers. Trumps favorability rating is currently 41.7%, giving him nearly a 3 point lead in favorability. This jives with current head to head polling as well, as Trump has a 2 point advantage nationally.
It's also important to remember that in 2020, Biden had a 4-10 point lead nationally (and comfortable leads in swing states like PA, MI, and WI) from the moment he won the nomination until election day. While he did maintain the popular vote spread in the election (winning by 4.4 points), he narrowly won those key swing states.
If the election were held today, Trump wins in a blowout. Probably secures 320+ electoral votes and probably takes the popular vote as well. But there is enough time till election and it's close enough that Trump could still fumble the bag and/or Biden could rally.
It's also important to remember that in 2020, Biden had a 4-10 point lead nationally (and comfortable leads in swing states like PA, MI, and WI) from the moment he won the nomination until election day. While he did maintain the popular vote spread in the election (winning by 4.4 points), he narrowly won those key swing states.
If the election were held today, Trump wins in a blowout. Probably secures 320+ electoral votes and probably takes the popular vote as well. But there is enough time till election and it's close enough that Trump could still fumble the bag and/or Biden could rally.
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acesfull86
Well-known member
I think Nate Silver hinted that he’s going to write an article about it since he’s been asked so many questions from reporters. He’s on his own now and is forecasting a Trump win at 70%+, and no one outside 538 knows what’s under the hood more than him. Looking forward to that read.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Is Joe gonna magically not have dementia ?
If so he might rally. That said- anyone with a functioning brain knows he isn’t running anything at the WH. A vote for him is a vote for no one in particular and an embarrassment
DEMOCRACY!
Tapate50
Well-known member
I don't expect Joe to rally, but you never know what could happen in 110 days. I'm more concerned that Trump will do or say something to fumble the ball. But being that his current job is simply to campaign, I am not quite as worried about that. He doesn't have the various distractions that he had in 2020. Especially with the court cases all but finished, aside from the Hush money trial sentencing.
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Its more likely that Trump takes VA/NJ/MN than it is Biden wins the election.
At this moment, I would agree. But 110 days till election.