GDT 9/11/24: Braves @ Nationals - A New Brave Appears

NYCBrave said:
You make good points. And this season certainly has been hard to watch, when considering the injuries and under performance across the board. I do wonder about the future of the team with the roster as constructed, and will be interesting to see how it plays out.

But also have to consider, imagine where a team like the Mets would be if Lindor, Alonso and Nimmo missed significant time due to injury. The fact that the Braves are still contending for a playoff spot despite all that has gone wrong (and obviously some good has happened as well) feels like a minor miracle.
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Mets would be battling to not lose 100.

The injuries are obviously cause #1 (probably cause #1 through #5), but the Braves' current line-up has a bunch of guys (Harris, Kelenic, Laureano, Arcia) with really bad isoOBPs. Olson, Ozuna, Riley, Soler,and Murphy (also a healthy Acuna) really know how to take a walk. Again, injuries has re-jiggered everything and that has sapped a lot of synergy out of the line-up.
 
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50PoundHead said:
Mets would be battling to not lose 100.

The injuries are obviously cause #1 (probably cause #1 through #5), but the Braves' current line-up has a bunch of guys (Harris, Kelenic, Laureano, Arcia) with really bad isoOBPs. Olson, Ozuna, Riley, Soler,and Murphy (also a healthy Acuna) really know how to take a walk. Again, injuries has re-jiggered everything and that has sapped a lot of synergy out of the line-up.
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I'm still having a hard time coming to terms with how guys like Murphy, Olson, Harris, Arcia (and even Riley, Acuna and Albies when healthy) could have such a massive drop off in their stats from one season to another. Really hard to explain.
 
NYCBrave said:
I'm still having a hard time coming to terms with how guys like Murphy, Olson, Harris, Arcia (and even Riley, Acuna and Albies when healthy) could have such a massive drop off in their stats from one season to another. Really hard to explain.
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What’s different ??

Wash and EY!

Just sayin’
 
NYCBrave said:
I'm still having a hard time coming to terms with how guys like Murphy, Olson, Harris, Arcia (and even Riley, Acuna and Albies when healthy) could have such a massive drop off in their stats from one season to another. Really hard to explain.
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When you have fewer good hitters, it becomes easier to pitch around the few good ones. I am certainly not saying that this is the explanation, but it’s probably a small part of it.
 
NYCBrave said:
I'm still having a hard time coming to terms with how guys like Murphy, Olson, Harris, Arcia (and even Riley, Acuna and Albies when healthy) could have such a massive drop off in their stats from one season to another. Really hard to explain.
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Murphy fell off mid season 2023. Olson isn't far from his career average, last season was more an abberation than this one. He is prone to long hot and cold streaks. Acuna insists on playing winter ball every year so his body isn't getting the rest it needs. Albies has always been inconsistent. Riley started slow last year too and he didn't finish with a terrible year this year. If he didn't get hurt he probably improved his dtatlijr a good bit. Arcia fell off mid season 2023. It was just a continuation of that. Several of these hitters have improved in the second half but you just don't see it moving the needle for their seasonal stats off hand.
 
When you have Williams, Kelenic, Arcia, and Urshela full time in the lineup what do you really expect? They aren’t very good. We sit 1 game out of the last wild card game right now and if you would have told me before the season started who all would have gotten hurt this year and then told me we would be in the hunt for the playoffs i would have laughed at you. Regardless of all the pissing and moaning, the fact that we are this close to the playoffs is a feat in itself. Glass half full crowd.
 
Hudson2 said:
When you have Williams, Kelenic, Arcia, and Urshela full time in the lineup what do you really expect? They aren’t very good. We sit 1 game out of the last wild card game right now and if you would have told me before the season started who all would have gotten hurt this year and then told me we would be in the hunt for the playoffs i would have laughed at you. Regardless of all the pissing and moaning, the fact that we are this close to the playoffs is a feat in itself. Glass half full crowd.
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Well if you told me we were #1 in era, #1 in fWAR pitching, #1 in FIP, #1 in xFIP, ozuna was in the triple crown race most of the season, and we added soler to replace an injured Acuna, I wouldn't have guessed we were not in the playoff field at this point
 
CyYoung31 said:
With the way this season has gone, it would surprise me if it didn’t happen.
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I'll go a step further to tell you how it will happen.

He'll go into the last day of the season needing one strikeout to lead MLB solo (and win my bet for me), and will be pulled due to elbow soreness on an 0-2 count to the leadoff batter.

Braves luck this year plus my luck = sorry Chris...see you in 2026.
 
NYCBrave said:
I'm still having a hard time coming to terms with how guys like Murphy, Olson, Harris, Arcia (and even Riley, Acuna and Albies when healthy) could have such a massive drop off in their stats from one season to another. Really hard to explain.
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They could be pressing and trying to do too much after the relatively slow start and the big injuries to Strider and Acuna right out of the gate. I was expecting some drop-off simply because 2023 was a magical season and those often don't repeat, but nothing like this. I'm not fully sold on Harris' bat. Olson has always been streaky (last season, the streak pretty much lasted all season long) and his mid-season funk this year was painful to watch (and obviousy for the team as well). Hard to tell on Murphy.

Arcia is who he is. He's likely going to match his 2023 HR total, but (and I don't totally buy the "luck" argument) his underlying measures look about the same as last year's, but the results haven't been there. Bat him 9th and let him play SS and he's not a total drag out there. The problem for the Braves is that they have 4 guys who should be batting 9th right now.
 
msstate7 said:
Well if you told me we were #1 in era, #1 in fWAR pitching, #1 in FIP, #1 in xFIP, ozuna was in the triple crown race most of the season, and we added soler to replace an injured Acuna, I wouldn't have guessed we were not in the playoff field at this point
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Lol we arent talking if we could see individual stats. If somebody told you that Strider was out for the year and Acuna would tear his other ACL and be out most of the year along with Riley and Albies both breaking their hands and Harris missing alot of time then nobody would have bet on us to make the playoffs. No other team in baseball could have bounced back from what we have this year. And Soler replacing Acuna? We could of had him in the offseason if we wanted but didn’t want him so i doubt anybody would have said anything about him replacing Acuna after an MVP year.
 
NYCBrave said:
I'm still having a hard time coming to terms with how guys like Murphy, Olson, Harris, Arcia (and even Riley, Acuna and Albies when healthy) could have such a massive drop off in their stats from one season to another. Really hard to explain.
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Something was going on offensively league wide to start the year. Acuna never had the chance to really recover from a slow start. Riley turned things around. His numbers in June, July, and Aug were at or above what you'd expecet from him. Despite last year, Albies is just an above average hitter. It's really his dropoff in defense last year and this year that should be the most concerning. Still, his 98 WRC+ on the year isn't far off from his 109 career mark. He's a streaky guy and I would have expected another hot month to get him in line with numbers we are used to. Olson is similar to Riley but he's been a bit unlucy. 830 OPS in the 2nd half so far. 2nd half Olson has a great walk rate, lower than career avg K%. ISO of 250. All great things. But a ****ty BABIP of 267 which was worse a week ago. A normalized BABIP and his WRC+ for the 2nd half would be higher than his career average. Murhphy and Harris don't need any expose. They just suck this year.

End of the day. Injuries are the issue. People can complain about the lack of depth and whatnot. But AA has filled all these injuries with adequate bench pieces. Would it have been better if we had a good bench to start the year? Sure. But the offense is without 3 all-star level players right now including the reigning MVP. That would wreck most teams into oblivion. The Braves were so strong they still have a decent chance at the playoffs.
 
Hudson2 said:
Lol we arent talking if we could see individual stats. If somebody told you that Strider was out for the year and Acuna would tear his other ACL and be out most of the year along with Riley and Albies both breaking their hands and Harris missing alot of time then nobody would have bet on us to make the playoffs. No other team in baseball could have bounced back from what we have this year. And Soler replacing Acuna? We could have had him in the offseason if we wanted but didn’t want him so i doubt anybody would have said anything about him replacing Acuna after an MVP year.
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Again, the pitching is #1 in mlb by any and every measure. This team just needs mid-offense, and they haven't gotten it. 6 of our 9 opening day guys have been playing, and then add soler, who was the OD DH for SF... this offense shouldn't be this bad.
 
msstate7 said:
Again, the pitching is #1 in mlb by any and every measure. This team just needs mid-offense, and they haven't gotten it. 6 of our 9 opening day guys have been playing, and then add soler, who was the OD DH for SF... this offense shouldn't be this bad.
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I agree its insane that the offense dropped off this bad all at once besides Ozuna. Sale has probably been the biggest surprise in baseball this year. Nobody could have seen this coming. He’s been on another planet.
 
msstate7 said:
Well if you told me we were #1 in era, #1 in fWAR pitching, #1 in FIP, #1 in xFIP, ozuna was in the triple crown race most of the season, and we added soler to replace an injured Acuna, I wouldn't have guessed we were not in the playoff field at this point
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If I told you before the season that we would lose Strider and Acuna for practically the entire year, that Harris, Murphy, and Albies would miss 60 games and Riley would miss over 30 games, and we would still win 88 games, you would have been amazed.

We have the exact same record currently as the Phillies did at the same point a year ago, when the Phillies were the WC leaders. We would leading the WC in almost any other season. The NL will likely sport 7 90 win teams. I'm not sure when the last time that even happened historically (if at all) but I can guarantee you it isn't often.
 
msstate7 said:
Again, the pitching is #1 in mlb by any and every measure. This team just needs mid-offense, and they haven't gotten it. 6 of our 9 opening day guys have been playing, and then add soler, who was the OD DH for SF... this offense shouldn't be this bad.
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The offense shouldn't be this bad with Merrifield, Urshela, Duvall, Rosario, Short, and Williams combining for 1000 PA's.... Is that really your stance???
 
Carp said:
The offense shouldn't be this bad with Merrifield, Urshela, Duvall, Rosario, Short, and Williams combining for 1000 PA's.... Is that really your stance???
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Duvall, Rosario, and short haven't been taking PA lastly, and it still hasn't improved.
 
I mean what I'm saying isn't a hot take... one of the all time great braves just ripped this team's offensive approach.
 
Carp said:
The offense shouldn't be this bad with Merrifield, Urshela, Duvall, Rosario, Short, and Williams combining for 1000 PA's.... Is that really your stance???
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Why are we ripping on Merrifield? He's been a positive addition for us on offense in the field and on the bases
 
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