nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Considering the financial challenges that John Hart alluded to and the fact we have some good options for innings 7-9 (Kimbrel, Walden, Simmons), this really doesn't make any sense.
players we should target and why
- Thread starter cajunrevenge
- Start date
Considering the financial challenges that John Hart alluded to and the fact we have some good options for innings 7-9 (Kimbrel, Walden, Simmons), this really doesn't make any sense.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Our bullpen needs almost no work. WE had the 4th lowest FIP-. And very strong in ERA- and xFIP- Avilan, Hale and Schlosser were the only real negatives for us. Considering how much of a positive Avilan was in the past, I'm willing to gamble on him.
If our pen for the majority of the year is Kimbrel, Walden, Simmons, Russell, Avilan, Carpenter, Long man of the hour. then we're fine, Walden, Simmons, and Carpenter have all been quite good. Our issue is long man, who's usually quite bad.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Miller is very good, but if we've got $8 million to spend, there are a few other places where that amount of money should go.
Umm...no. He's just not. Sorry.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Not even the problem of no good lefty reliever in the pen?
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
So, you think we should spend 8 million on a reliever that would at best be a 7th inning guy? Because that was my point. Calling him a LOOGY was just hyperbole.
Chase Shreve showed he deserves a shot. I like him a good deal
I said he's just not a LOOGY. You know how these things work around here - no need to use hyperbole to accentuate a point. If that's what you believe he is, say so and let everyone disagree. No problems - most of us are "big boys" and can handle differing opinions without going off the deep end.
Is he worth $8 million per? I don't know. Given our payroll constraints that'd make things AWFULLY tight. However, adding someone like Miller to put our pen in the discussion with KC's also helps the rotation like it has for them. If you have Kimbrel/Miller/Carpenter/Walden/Simmons/Shreve out there, games suddenly become 5 innings instead of 9. Doing so would almost certainly relieve the need to spend extravagantly on another SP - Teheran, Wood, and Minor typically breeze through 6, meaning that we COULD potentially get by with a back end of say Hale and an inexpensive Harang/Floyd type of veteran (or even Hursh or Martin at some point if needed).
Is that the best course of action? Eh, who knows??? Just pointing out that it's a legitimate option that some successful teams have employed.
I don't think anyone disagrees that Miller would be useful on this roster. I think the issue is that the Braves have a decent/good/great BP, but a horrendous offense and 400 quality IP leaving the starting rotation. With limited resources it is probably wise to allocate them to the biggest problems.
Now, if something crazy happened where Kimbrel was traded away to fix other areas of the roster, signing Miller for the back end of the BP all of a sudden makes a ton of sense. But a team with a $100M payroll can't really afford an $8M setup man when they already have an expensive closer, 2 useless position players making close to $30M, and an offense that was basically the worst one East of the Mississippi.
Now, if something crazy happened where Kimbrel was traded away to fix other areas of the roster, signing Miller for the back end of the BP all of a sudden makes a ton of sense. But a team with a $100M payroll can't really afford an $8M setup man when they already have an expensive closer, 2 useless position players making close to $30M, and an offense that was basically the worst one East of the Mississippi.
Varvaro is still the long man I assume?
That's a part of it to me though. I look at it from this angle - there's almost no way we don't make Santana a qualifying offer, and almost no way he takes it. With two current openings in the rotation, it's a gamble you more or less have to take. We can't simply let him walk and get nothing in return even if the $15.3 million makes the budget tight. If that's the case, Hart & Company are operating under the assumption that that money is gone even if he doesn't accept it. Assuming Ervin bolts, can you improve by shortening games by giving Miller $8 million and spending the other $7.3 million trying to improve offensively?
Even if you didn't spend it on any particular player, does adding Miller to make the pen damn near bulletproof help simply because you've now freed up half of the money due B. J. so it doesn't hurt quite so bad if/when you find a taker for him?
Again, I don't know - just pointing out options.
Or to go even a step further - would we be better off using the $15.3 million to sign Miller and another SP? The money you've budgeted in the event Santana unexpectedly accepts the QO could conceivably pay for making the pen bulletproof AND filling one of the two spots in the rotation. That $15.3 million should be enough to sign Miller and a veteran 4th SP - a Floyd/Harang/Ryan Vogelsong/Edinson Volquez type.
Like I said, Kansas City made it to the Series with Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie as their #3 and #4 with that pen and an offense that wasn't much better than ours if you can add someone like Peraza at the top and a little more contact.
Like I said, Kansas City made it to the Series with Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie as their #3 and #4 with that pen and an offense that wasn't much better than ours if you can add someone like Peraza at the top and a little more contact.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
If Santana accepted the QO there would be a pretty good trade market for him.
No doubt. However, you have to figure that it would make more sense that a potential future trading partner for him would be better served by swallowing hard and giving up the pick to sign him now for multiple years rather than take the chance that Hart has them even further over a barrel if they want him near the deadline. I'd almost guarantee Billy Beane would've been worlds happier to give up a 1st Round pick for Samardzija instead of Addison Russell.
keithlaw
Playing the Waiting Game
We can't afford Santana unless we dump a ton of salary. We currently have $80 million committed to BJ, Uggla, Freeman, Heyward, Justin, Kimbrel, Johnson, Simmons, and Teheran. With Arbitration raises to Minor, Russel, Walden, and Carpenter, we're at roughly $90 million. That leaves $10-$20 million for 14 players. Even if we pay the other 13 league minimum, that only leaves $3.5-$13.5 million for Santana. Wren left us in a really bad spot with several holes to fill, but no financial wiggle room or prospects to fill them.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
I think we are better off letting Santana walk for the draft pick and then go after someone who won't cost a pick. If Santana accepts the qualifying offer (he wont) then we can trade him for prospects closer to the majors. Santana is now coming off 2 straight good years, a lot of teams would love to have him on a 1 year deal with no long term risk.
Bethancourt - $550,000
Freeman - $8,500,000
Peraza - $550,000
Simmons - $3,142,858
Johnson - $6,000,000
Heyward - $7,800,000
Upton - $14,450,000
Upton - $14,500,000
Bench
La Stella - $550,000
Gosselin - $550,000
Rotation
Teheran - $1,500,000
Wood - $650,000 (If not extended)
Minor - $5,000,000 (If not extended)
Hale - $575,000
Pen
Kimbrel - $9,500,000
Carpenter - $1,000,000
Walden - $2,000,000
Simmons - $550,000
Shreve - $550,000
Varvaro/Gearrin/whomever - $550,000
Additional Commitment
Uggla - $13,000,000
Assuming Gattis is dealt, that puts you at $91,437,858 with one spot in the rotation, one spot in the pen, a backup C, and two backup OF slots to fill. Last year's Opening Day payroll was $112,008,731. That's a difference of $20,570,873.
A backup for Bethancourt will hack roughly $2 million off of that, leaving you with $18,570,873.
Signing Miller would lead to Russell being non-tendered so if you hack another $8 million off, you're left with $10,570,873 for the final rotation piece and 2 backup OFs.
Targeting a young, controllable SP that could step into the rotation as the return you want for Gattis (even if you have to add something to sweeten the pot) - Alex Cobb from Tampa, Drew Pomeranz from Oakland, one of Drew Hutchison, Daniel Norris, or Aaron Sanchez from Toronto all would fit the bill AND their teams have enough rotation depth to pull the trigger on that kind of deal - would leave you with the vast majority of that (at least around $9 million) to throw $3-4 million each at a couple backup OFs for a much stronger bench and still come in at or below last season's Opening Day figure.
You could still do it even without trading Gattis. If you keep him and the backup C becomes Bethancourt, you still have around $20 million for one rotation slot, one pen slot, and 2 backup OFs. Promote Cunningham to be the 25th man (at the league minimum) and you could sign Miller for $8 million, a Floyd/Harang/Volquez type for $5-$8 million and you'd still have $3-$4 million to pay another backup OF.
The point is, they WILL have the QO figure budgeted and WILL offer it to Santana - there's simply no way they can allow him to walk without compensation even if (as the others have mentioned) they have to find a trading partner to take him early in the season.
The Braves payroll was $112M only so they could sign Santana. I would fully expect the payroll to be right around $100M for 2015, and probably under $100M.
There is simply no way on Earth we see Miller in a Braves uniform in 2015.
I would expect Hart/Coppy to be shopping in that middle tier of SPs that will cost less than $10M per year, and then filling out the bench and platoon partners via trades.
No way should a team with a terrible offense and significant payroll constraints be trading away a guy that can post an .800+ OPS while making $600k. It would be incompetent and border on lunacy.
There is simply no way on Earth we see Miller in a Braves uniform in 2015.
I would expect Hart/Coppy to be shopping in that middle tier of SPs that will cost less than $10M per year, and then filling out the bench and platoon partners via trades.
No way should a team with a terrible offense and significant payroll constraints be trading away a guy that can post an .800+ OPS while making $600k. It would be incompetent and border on lunacy.