What Hart Hath Wrought

[nsacpi]

There are probably one or two moves remaining from the front office this off-season. But we have a broad idea of what the moves this off-season mean for wins and losses.

Collectively, the moves from Hart and company this off-season have reduced expected wins for 2015 by 5-6, while increasing expected wins for the subsequent half dozen seasons by a similar amount (or approximately 1 per season).

For 2015 our position for on the win curve is now probably in the 75-80 win range. If we had held on to Heyward and Justin Upton (and not signed Markakis and used a replacement level pitcher instead of Miller in the rotation) our position on the win curve would have been in the 80-85 win range.

Of course the games remain to be played. The above are expectations--my own, which are informed by but somewhat more optimistic that those from Fangraphs and Steamer (whose projections for Wood, Teheran, Minor and Gattis look a bit low to me).

We have had plenty of threads discussing whether Hart was wise or not in making these moves. Hopefully, in this thread we can focus the discussion on their actual implications for expected wins and losses (in 2015 and beyond), without taking a "partisan" viewpoint as to the wisdom of the moves that have been made this off-season.

 

[Dalyn]

It's important to remember that the 5-6 losses added in both 2015 and 2016 will result in double that combined number in 2017. Any additional losses Fredi can wrangle from the jaws of victory in 2015 and 2016 will push that team even higher. I expect it will be a 120-win team before all is said and done.

 

[CyYoung31]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we end up having a better offense than last year. But it definitely won't be as good as had we kept Heyward and Justin, and still probably won't be very good.

Really, we should have just traded Justin and extended Heyward. Heyward is a/the face of the franchise along with being our best player, and you need someone like that going into a new ballpark. It's going to hurt us all-around.

 

[weso1]

I would love it if the Braves would just invest the money for the next few years and not make anymore significant moves. With that in mind that's incredibly naive. Whatever money the Braves don't spend ole Malone will put that crap in his buy more land fund. Not that I don't blame him as I would do the same if I owned the Dodgers for example. Well maybe I'd spend the money on vols paraphernalia.

So if I'm Hart I don't know what the hell I do. Maybe spend as much money as possible on scouting and international signings. Maybe just put that crap down on Upton's contract without Malone's knowledge. Create a crap contract fund.

 

[weso1]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we end up having a better offense than last year. But it definitely won't be as good as had we kept Heyward and Justin, and still probably won't be very good.

Really, we should have just traded Justin and extended Heyward. Heyward is a/the face of the franchise along with being our best player, and you need someone like that going into a new ballpark. It's going to hurt us all-around.

Honestly though Heyward's best selling point was RF defense. How sexy is that when you really think about it? Great he done ran to open field and made a catch several guys wouldn't have made... So marketable. I get the stats show its value but at the same time, where's the marketing value in that? Heyward's true marketing value was in his hustle and likability. Markakis will provide that as supposedly O's fans loved him for that crap. Plus let's be honest he's a good looking dude. So if you're talking about face of the franchise and marketability you're barking up the wrong tree.

Freeman was/is the face of the franchise because he can hit. Face of the franchise is not RF defense. Simmons is closer than Heyward was.

 

[CyYoung31]

On another note, I do expect our pitching to be outstanding. My concern is that we still lack meaningful depth in that area.

 

[CyYoung31]

Honestly though Heyward's best selling point was RF defense. How sexy is that when you really think about it? Great he done ran to open field and made a catch several guys wouldn't have made... So marketable. I get the stats show its value but at the same time, where's the marketing value in that? Heyward's true marketing value was in his hustle and likability. Markakis will provide that as supposedly O's fans loved him for that crap. Plus let's be honest he's a good looking dude. So if you're talking about face of the franchise and marketability you're barking up the wrong tree.

Freeman was/is the face of the franchise because he can hit. Face of the franchise is not RF defense. Simmons is closer than Heyward was.

Heyward can hit too. As well as being better at base running and defense than anyone else. He's also marketable to the black community and a leader.

 

[weso1]

Heyward can hit too. As well as being better at base running and defense than anyone else. He's also marketable to the black community and a leader.

Markakis is supposedly a leader as well. Base running is just as boring as RF defense if you don't steal a ton of bases.

I needs stats on his actual effect on the black community. Sounds reasonable but what are the actual effects? But with that in mind Braves are moving closer to suburban Atlanta.

I think maybe we're overrating his marketing value based on legitimate, but not necessarily marketable stats.

 

[thethe]

Any buzz Heyward had was still from his rookie season. Its not like the Braves were drawing capacity crowds with him on the team the last 5 years. Fans will forget quickly if Markakis hits. If he doesn't then fans will be calling for Harts head because Heyward is elsewhere.

 

[CyYoung31]

Markakis is supposedly a leader as well. Base running is just as boring as RF defense if you don't steal a ton of bases.

I needs stats on his actual effect on the black community. Sounds reasonable but what are the actual effects? But with that in mind Braves are moving closer to suburban Atlanta.

I think maybe we're overrating is marketing value based on legitimate, but no necessarily marketable stats.

Base-running is super important, and its Fredi's fault Heyward didn't steal more bases.

Heyward is more marketable than Freeman IMO, mainly because of skillet.

 

[Oklahomabrave]

Freeman's skill set has made him one of the top eleven or twelve hitters over the past two years. As much as I liked Heyward, as much of a fan of his base running and defense that I still am, I think Freeman ends up being a pretty damn good face of the franchise. He's already one of the best hitters in the game. If he adds even a little more power he will have an argument as a top five-ten hitter. To me, that's a lot fewer if's than Heyward has.

 

[weso1]

Base-running is super important, and its Fredi's fault Heyward didn't steal more bases.

Heyward is more marketable than Freeman IMO, mainly because of skillet.

Base running is super-important but it doesn't make it marketable. Heyward isn't a great base stealer. He is who he is. How many good 6'5 base stealers have existed in MLB? I need stats from you to prove that Heyward is more valuable marketing wise than Feddie. I just don't buy it. I don't even think Heyward is 2nd on the list.

 

[CyYoung31]

Base running is super-important but it doesn't make it marketable. Heyward isn't a great base stealer. He is who he is. How many good 6'5 base stealers have existed in MLB? I need stats from you to prove that Heyward is more valuable marketing wise than Feddie. I just don't buy it. I don't even think Heyward is 2nd on the list.

I'm not trying to compare Freeman and Heyward. I'm trying to say that having both would far more beneficial than just having one. That's the way it was supposed to be, and that's the way it should have been.

 

[cajunrevenge]

I think we are going to be a lot more competitive than people think. The top 4 in the rotation could be something special. I bet we score at least as any runs as we did last year.

 

[weso1]

I'm just going to say it. nsacpi's predicted wins this year vs what could have been surprised me. I mean we were a meh team vs a slightly better meh team. And I know he didn't want us to mention it itt, but at the same time... ****.

 

[thethe]

I think we are going to be a lot more competitive than people think. The top 4 in the rotation could be something special. I bet we score at least as any runs as we did last year.

Especially if Minor bounces back to what we would expect out of him. He was just hurt all year. We could have 4 pitchers who have sub 3.5 FIP. How many rotations have that possibility?

 

[zitothebrave]

I think we are going to be a lot more competitive than people think. The top 4 in the rotation could be something special. I bet we score at least as any runs as we did last year.

We lost 2 of our 4 best hitters, only advantage is we also lost our worst hitter. Short of massive bounceback, breakout, or fluke years, there's no way our offense is close to last years. Seriously, we have miseable ass BJ in CF, bad hitting Simmons at SS, BABIP, whatever mistake is happening at 2B and Bethancourt on this team, we're not looking good.

Remember, there were 4 hitters on this team who were above average last year, Gattis, Freeman, Jason, and Justin, we traded the last 2, signed Markakis who is likely to be above average, but less of a lock than Jason or Justin (106 wRC+ last year, 88 year before), only shot we have of being almost as good offensively last year is if a miracle happens. ANd if Minor bounces back that's fine, but for our rotation to be better than last year we need him to bounce back and Shelby Miller to live up to his potential, Wood to be Healthy and Julio to perform as good if not better, then maybe we have a better rotation. People seemingly here are forgetting about how great Harang and Santana were for us. We could have a better rotation, or one of them could get hurt and our rotation is avrage at best. WHo knows.

 

[zitothebrave]

Especially if Minor bounces back to what we would expect out of him. He was just hurt all year. We could have 4 pitchers who have sub 3.5 FIP. How many rotations have that possibility?

Last years Braves basically had that reality. But people forget that. We're boned next year without having a ton of luck. We need so much to bounce our way to be competitive for th elast wild card spot.

 

[thethe]

Last years Braves basically had that reality. But people forget that. We're boned next year without having a ton of luck. We need so much to bounce our way to be competitive for th elast wild card spot.

I really don't see much of a difference from last years team. Awful offense and good pitching. The only difference is our outfield defense is worse (How much depends on who we end up having in LF) and our infield defense will be better.

However, while the hitting could certainly be worse the pitching has an even better chance of being better. Another year or maturity for Teheran/Wood, obvious bounce back in Minor and another young power arm that could be rounding into form.

I have a feeling that our fifth pitcher is not on our roster right now so overall I would say the pitching could be really good again if not better.

 

[Runnin]

Heyward can hit too.

He murders the low and away changeup if he's looking for it but can't put solid wood on anything else. And his numbers, puny as they are, are buoyed by speed.

It's a travesty that this late into his career he hasn't made a serious effort to shorten-up and tighten-up his swing. All that untapped potential. With his natural strength and a Pete Rose type swing could hit 40 HRs.

I'd probably screw him up but if I was his hitting coach I'd have him hitting soft toss everyday one handed, just his left hand. And I'd also have him taking some BP right handed just to shore up the fundamentals and you never know what it might develop into.