Given the $$$ involved and the difference in talent and upside, Minor likely would've gotten it done alone. *ell, we could've offered to toss in $10 million if they'd have taken Johnson.
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Given the $$$ involved and the difference in talent and upside, Minor likely would've gotten it done alone. *ell, we could've offered to toss in $10 million if they'd have taken Johnson.
Here is a good article about the Scherzer signing, comparables, and contract discussion. (not final details)
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nationals-build-potential-super-team-add-max-scherzer/
Let’s get back to Scherzer. He’s a definite ace, and an ace without a worrisome injury history. You already know him for his strikeouts, but he really excels in one area in particular. If you’re chasing against Max Scherzer, you know you’re in trouble, but if you’re not chasing, you might still be in trouble. Over the last three years, here’s the top five in lowest contact rates allowed on pitches in the strike zone:
1.Max Scherzer, 80.5% Z-contact%
2.R.A. Dickey, 80.7%
3.Matt Harvey, 83.0%
4.Justin Verlander, 83.6%
5.Matt Moore, 83.9%
It’s Scherzer, then a guy with a trick pitch, then a decent gap until the next regular arm. Scherzer finished second in baseball in 2012, behind Dickey. He finished first in 2013. And he finished second in 2014, behind Dickey. Scherzer doesn’t need for hitters to flail away to succeed — he’s strong enough with strikes, and he throws a lot of strikes.
And for what it’s worth, he’s done all this in the American League, and in the AL Central. In 2013, Scherzer’s average opponent had a 96 wRC+. Last year, his average opponent had a 100 wRC+. Two years ago, Jordan Zimmermann’s average opponent had an 89 wRC+. Last year, 91. Zimmermann works as a stand-in for most Nationals pitchers, here. Scherzer’s put up big numbers against higher-quality competition. Zimmermann’s been real good, and Strasburg has also been real good, but their numbers have largely come against relatively inferior competition, so that could be one more reason why the Nationals were willing to commit to Scherzer long-term. With Washington, he could reach another level. Alternatively, he could just have a more gradual decline.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nationals-build-potential-super-team-add-max-scherzer/
Let’s get back to Scherzer. He’s a definite ace, and an ace without a worrisome injury history. You already know him for his strikeouts, but he really excels in one area in particular. If you’re chasing against Max Scherzer, you know you’re in trouble, but if you’re not chasing, you might still be in trouble. Over the last three years, here’s the top five in lowest contact rates allowed on pitches in the strike zone:
1.Max Scherzer, 80.5% Z-contact%
2.R.A. Dickey, 80.7%
3.Matt Harvey, 83.0%
4.Justin Verlander, 83.6%
5.Matt Moore, 83.9%
It’s Scherzer, then a guy with a trick pitch, then a decent gap until the next regular arm. Scherzer finished second in baseball in 2012, behind Dickey. He finished first in 2013. And he finished second in 2014, behind Dickey. Scherzer doesn’t need for hitters to flail away to succeed — he’s strong enough with strikes, and he throws a lot of strikes.
And for what it’s worth, he’s done all this in the American League, and in the AL Central. In 2013, Scherzer’s average opponent had a 96 wRC+. Last year, his average opponent had a 100 wRC+. Two years ago, Jordan Zimmermann’s average opponent had an 89 wRC+. Last year, 91. Zimmermann works as a stand-in for most Nationals pitchers, here. Scherzer’s put up big numbers against higher-quality competition. Zimmermann’s been real good, and Strasburg has also been real good, but their numbers have largely come against relatively inferior competition, so that could be one more reason why the Nationals were willing to commit to Scherzer long-term. With Washington, he could reach another level. Alternatively, he could just have a more gradual decline.
Have to assume Mr. Lerner made the Scherzer deal because he WANTS to win. Assuming that's the case, I wouldn't trade a soul.
1.) Escobar plays 2B this season and slides over to replace Desmond next year if Turner's not ready. You recoup the draft pick you lost for signing Scherzer.
2.) Giolito will be ready to replace Zimmerman in 2016. You get another draft pick.
3.) Michael Taylor will be ready to replace Span in 2016. You get another draft pick.
4.) Concentrate your efforts on extending Fister instead of Zimmerman (at a much lower figure). If he doesn't want to stay, you've got Roark A. J. Cole, and Erick Fedde waiting in the wings and you get yet ANOTHER draft pick.
5.) Wilmer Difo should be ready to take over 2B by late 2016, and if Turner's also ready you can trade Escobar for a prospect.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Holy ****
sturg33
I
wow
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
I am sure MLB will pitch in some cash to help their buds out.
That is at 1.7%, which seems awfully low to me, but I could be wrong on that. Inflation over the next 14 years will likely be over 1.7%. If you just said you expect baseball contract inflation to be 3%, then the NPV is $169,000,000.
Interesting way to configure contract. I wonder if that allows them to actually spend more in the short term since the contract is only on the books for 15 mil.
Either MLB or the Orioles will. They are still owed somewhere close to 50 million.
dak
Well-known member
The big unknown, at this point, is how the Nats will account for this. If they're simply putting the deferral $ in escrow each year between 2015 and 2021, then they'll be done budgeting for Scherzer after 7 years. Otherwise, this deferral will impact their spending capability long after Scherzer is gone. If the latter, that is a questionable decision . . . even if just from a PR standpoint.
You can never have enough pitching...esepcially top notch pitching. Nothing in the game has changed in that respect.
sturg33
I
you can have enough to justify not investing an additional $210M which has the potential to cripple you in as little as 3 years
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Nope... I fully expect the Braves to be awful next year... but the annual falling short of the Nationals is pretty fun to watch so I'll at least enjoy that this year.
They will be able to get a kings ransom for trading either Stras/Zimm/Roark.