blueagleace1
Playing the Waiting Game
He had ONE bad year... please go look at our lineup and show me a guy besides Freeman who had a OPS over .830?
Charlie Blackmon available
- Thread starter Hawk
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He had ONE bad year... please go look at our lineup and show me a guy besides Freeman who had a OPS over .830?
He has been declining over the past four years, and fell off a cliff last year. Would you really want to take on that contract with a guy that looks to be in rapid decline?
blueagleace1
Playing the Waiting Game
Couple things...
Allen Craig Last 4 years:
2011 (75 games / 219 PA) - .315/.362/.555/.917 with 11 HR / 40 RBI / 33 R and 151 OPS+
2012 (119 games / 514 PA) - .307/.354/.522/.876 with 22 HR / 92 RBI / 76 R and 137 OPS+
2013 (134 games / 563 PA) - .315/.373/.457/.830 with 13 HR / 97 RBI / 71 R and 129 OPS+
*2014 (126 games / 505 PA) - .215/.279/.315/.594 with 8 HR / 46 RBI / 41 R and 66 OPS+
*Played most/all of 2014 on a surgically repaired ankle that Craig himself admitted it affected his performance. http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2014/08/allen_craig_headed_to_the_disabled_list_with_ankle.html
I don't see how you can say he is in a rapid decline after having ONE bad season (that was a season in which he was dealing with his surgically repaired ankle) and prior to last year was a solid offensive contributor.
Here is how he stacks up to our current projected regulars using their career average OPS+ and Craig's OPS+ of 2013 (his last healthy season and one that you claim he was in "rapid decline"...)
Allen Craig - 129 OPS+ (Career average 115 OPS+) / {Craig career best = 151 OPS+}
Craig's career OPS+ is effected by his 2014 season as his previous seasons are: (2011= 151 OPS+, 2012= 137 OPS+, 2013= 129 OPS+)
Nick Markakis - 113 OPS+ (< Craig) / {Markakis career best = 136 OPS+}
Andrelton Simmons - 85 OPS+ (< Craig) / {Simmons career best = 101 OPS+)
Freddie Freeman - 128 OPS+ (< Craig) / {Freeman career best = 147 OPS+}
Chris Johnson - 102 OPS+ (< Craig) / {Johnson career best = 124 OPS+}
Alberto Callaspo - 93 OPS+ (< Craig) / {Callaspo career best = 115 OPS+}
B.J. Upton - 97 OPS+ (< Craig) / {Upton career best = 136 OPS+}
A.J. Pierzynski - 95 OPS+ (< Craig) / {Pierzynski career best = 120 OPS+}
If we use Craig's 2013 numbers, there is not a single player on our current roster who has a higher OPS+. Freeman, Upton, and Markakis are the only ones (it was all three of their career best season) who have had a better year than Allen Craig's worst season (I am discounting last season due to injury). Can we expect Craig to produce a OPS+ around 130? No, but I think he can give us something around 115+ for the remaining of his contract, speaking of his contract...
Craig's remaining contract details:
2015 - $5,500,000
2016 - $9,000,000
2017 - $11,000,000
*2018 - $13,000,000
*Club Option
"Would I really want to take on that contract"... Absolutely yes. That is $38.5 million over 4 seasons, for a guy to protect our best hitter and play a position that we currently lack a viable option. I don't think you could sign a guy with Craig's numbers for 4 years / $38.5 million, for instance:
Allen Craig's AAV = $9,625,000 (4 years / $38.5 million)
Norichika Aoki AAV = $6,250,000 (2 years / $12.5 million)
Melky Cabrera AAV = $14,000,000 (3 years / $42 million)
Nelson Cruz AAV = $14,500,000 (4 years / $58 million)
Michael Cuddyer AAV = $10,500,000 (2 years / $21 million)
Tori Hunter AAV = $10,500,000 (1 year / $10.5 million)
Nick Markakis AAV = $11,000,000 (4 years / $44 million)
Michael Morse AAV = $8,000,000 (2 years / $16 million)
Yasmany Thomas AAV = $11,416,667 (6 years / $68.5 million)
My point of giving all this information is that I don't think we could sign a player similar to Craig for what he's making now. For sake of comparison, the other FA with the same similar numbers and history of Craig is Melky Cabrera and he is making $14 million per year compared to $9.6 million that Allen Craig makes. I totally respect your opinion and can see your concern but with what available and our needs, I just think Craig is the best fit.
Most likely we are not going to be competing for anything in 2015 and maybe not 2016 either. I sure don't want to take a chance and trade for a guy that could be declining and have to pay him close to $10MM per year for the next three years. Let's say he does rebound. So maybe he nets us an additional win or two. What good would that do, maybe we go from 70 to 72 wins? All that does is worsen our draft position. That's not to mention what it would cost to acquire him.
My hope is that we deal from our newly acquired high end pitching prospect depth to acquire a high end corner outfield prospect. That would make much more sense.
My hope is that we deal from our newly acquired high end pitching prospect depth to acquire a high end corner outfield prospect. That would make much more sense.
blueagleace1
Playing the Waiting Game
Again, where/whom can we acquire (that's available) that fits that criteria and who is under club control thru 2017?
That I do not know, that is for Hart and company to decipher. But we are a club that is looking to contend in 2-3 years. Surely we can acquire someone in the next year that fits that profile. Perhaps with either our 15th or 29th selection in the upcoming draft we take an outfielder that could be ready by then.
blueagleace1
Playing the Waiting Game
How can we take an outfielder in the 2015 draft with them being ready to contribute by 2017 at the absolute latest and possibly by 2016. It's rare enough to see a pitcher make it to the Majors that quick but it's next to impossible that a bat will be ready that quick.
Sometimes college position players are advanced enough that they only need a couple years in the minors. I have no idea if such a player exists in the current draft, so who knows.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
He just isn't very good, so that's why we won't be interested.
He'd be better than any outfielder we currently have on our Major League roster, perhaps save Markakis.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
So what? We're not trying to compete this year, so he'd be pointless.
So ... what's to lose in acquiring him, provided the cost is reasonable? Joey T. at bats? Come on.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
Rights to a player that we may actually use in the future?
If they're giving him away for free, fine. They won't, not after last season.
He would be a .650 OPS player here. No thanks.
I think last season is exactly why Craig could be obtained for a pittance should a team actually be interested in making a deal.
That logic didn't work with Markakis.
BoSox cover ~75% of remaining salary obligations, be willing to take a fringe prospect in return.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
Markakis is a safer bet than Blackmon by a mile.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
I thought we were talking about Blackmon.
I'm not against Craig, and sure, at that price, which is basically nothing at all, I'd do it.
Don't think we could get him that low.