Kimbrel/Melvin Trade Thread

Hawk said:
Chip Caray
@kapaya1234
FWIW Last 4 years SD lost TOTAL of 9 games when leading after 8. Did deal keep CK from LA??? Hat tip Joe Simpson
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If so, would be interesting to know what the Dodgers would've been willing to offer.
 
Hawk said:
O'Brien is still acting oblivious about the Maybin acquisition:

They had read and heard about the team coming together, getting along and being confident with a prove-the-skeptics-wrong chip on their shoulder. They know about Jace Peterson, one of those prospects who came from the Padres in the Justin Upton trade, emerging as a better-than-expected second baseman ready to step in right now and fill a gaping hole at that position and in the 2-hole behind Eric Young Jr., who surpassed expectations this spring after moving to center and the top of the order when Melvin/B.J. got hurt the first day of full-squad workouts. With Young and Peterson, the Braves finally have a more prototypical 1-2 combo at the the top of their order, both with speed.

http://atlantabraves.blog.ajc.com/2015/04/06/timing-of-kimbrel-trade-made-it-even-worse/
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So he's hyping a batting order lead by Eric Young and Jace Peterson?
 
Told you guys before, and this isn't "sour grapes" because Kimbrel is gone, as he was a favorite of mine too. It's been demonstrated that a championship team can be built without this type of elite, All World closer.

The amateur sabermetricians should attempt to actually do their own research, for once, instead of regurgitating Fangraphs or worshiping rock star, Billy Beane. Bet that the numbers of teams, who lead after 9 innings, like SD is more of trend than anybody else is willing to admit. (Sorry, have neither the time nor the inclination to do it myself.) Probably even many sub .500 teams still maintain their leads to a large extent, unless they have really poor bullpens.

One other point, and this is to be realistic. A couple of professional writers have been expecting this for weeks. For definitely '15 and probably '16, there wasn't going to be anything for Kimbrel to save. Why waste that talent? Everyone seems to agree that the return was excellent. As OP pointed out, start grooming Shae Simmons.
 
I'm laughing at a few folks in this thread saying losing Kimbrel takes us from 75 wins to 65 wins, or a "handful" of wins. My guess is, we lost 1, maybe 2 extra games. We'll see
 
David O'Brien
@DOBrienAJC
#Braves will designate for assignment Carlos Quentin, who has $8M salary. Hope that an AL team will show interest in picking up some $

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Now wouldn't that be a cherry on top?
 
You can win a world series without an elite closer. You just need the right closer to be hot. There have been a handful of elite closers, Wagner, Hoffman, and Rivera come to mind. Only Rivera won a ring of that group.
 
Hawk said:
David O'Brien
@DOBrienAJC
#Braves will designate for assignment Carlos Quentin, who has $8M salary. Hope that an AL team will show interest in picking up some $

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Now wouldn't that be a cherry on top?
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Not gonna happen... SD has presumably been trying to dump him all offseason
 
Knucksie said:
Told you guys before, and this isn't "sour grapes" because Kimbrel is gone, as he was a favorite of mine too. It's been demonstrated that a championship team can be built without this type of elite, All World closer.

The amateur sabermetricians should attempt to actually do their own research, for once, instead of regurgitating Fangraphs or worshiping rock star, Billy Beane. Bet that the numbers of teams, who lead after 9 innings, like SD is more of trend than anybody else is willing to admit. (Sorry, have neither the time nor the inclination to do it myself.) Probably even many sub .500 teams still maintain their leads to a large extent, unless they have really poor bullpens.

One other point, and this is to be realistic. A couple of professional writers have been expecting this for weeks. For definitely '15 and probably '16, there wasn't going to be anything for Kimbrel to save. Why waste that talent? Everyone seems to agree that the return was excellent. As OP pointed out, start grooming Shae Simmons.
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Im not even sure what you are arguing here.
 
I don't love this trade, but I don't hate it either. Players like CK don't come along everyday, but Upton is gone and that's the blessing here. And to be honest given the track record of the modern pitcher unless CK's UCL is longer than most it will probably fray and require attention at some point, hopefully not. The only thing I question is timing. I would have done this as part of the first Upton deal if I were willing to go all in like this. I know a few of you hate what Hart has done but he has basically done to the Padres what Texas did to us in the Tex trade, and maybe Miller will be our Wainwright revenge on the Cards. As much as I wish we had CK, Johnson and Grilli are not going to blow every save opprotunity. They will save 30-40 games between them. I still believe this will not lose 90-100 games.
 
sturg33 said:
I'm laughing at a few folks in this thread saying losing Kimbrel takes us from 75 wins to 65 wins, or a "handful" of wins. My guess is, we lost 1, maybe 2 extra games. We'll see
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We had 13 blown saves last year (4 from Kimbrel). I say we'll hit about 25-30 this year. Similar to 2006. I think that will add five or six losses.
 
zitothebrave said:
You can win a world series without an elite closer. You just need the right closer to be hot. There have been a handful of elite closers, Wagner, Hoffman, and Rivera come to mind. Only Rivera won a ring of that group.
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Take it a step further. Of recent WS-winning teams, who were their closers? Nobody who was was even in the same area code as the names you mentioned. Not that it's recommended that to attempt it with McMichael, Ligtenberg, Cather or Clontz...
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I agree completely. If you go look at the playoff teams and eventual WS winners for the last 30 years or so, almost every team has been league average or better hitting HR. Even last year, where power numbers were down across baseball this was true with the outlier being KC (who I think craters back to earth this year).

All the trades for pitching I understand as feeding the pitching part of the pitching/power equation. My wonder is where is the power going to come from? A team needs to be constructed like this imo:

1B- 30-40hr

2B- 10-20

SS- 5-15

3B- 20-30

RF- 20-30

LF- 20-30

CF- 5-15

C- 10-20

Bench-10-20

If you take the low end of that you end up with 130HR, the high end 220HR. 130HR would be likely the low end for typical league average in the NL (last year it was 135HR).

Right now, every position that the Braves have projects below the league minimum number that I gave above. So, unless someone goes all Brady Anderson OR the team pulls a KC, which is statistically very unlikely, then the Braves weren't going to win anything this year and probably not any time soon until they get some bats.

Now, I understand that HR aren't all there is to offense (part of the Braves problems in the near past have been that they have had power but way, way too many strike outs). But, I'm using it as a gauge of offensive potential and to compare to what historically good teams have done.
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It's useless to play this backwards, but what if both San Diego trades are done as one big blockbuster before Heyward was traded. We then have the resources to at least put together an offer he would likely entertain.

As it is, we have traded almost all of our power and that's something that is difficult to patch together. Power isn't all about HRs, but we don't seem to have much doubles power as the team is currently constructed. And as well as Kansas City did last year, succeeding with a team like that requires a lot of things to fall together almost seamlessly so I don't think building a team according to that model has much staying power.
 
We have likely already seen the best CK has to offer folks. I wish him luck, but this trade was VERY necessary.
 
HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE losing Kimbrel but I know it was the right trade to make. He was just so fun to watch, I think it's going to hit us this week how hard this year is going to be. We are going to be a frustrating team to watch. Kimbrel was one of the few players you want to turn the TV on to watch. Now we only have a couple. Freeman and our starting pitching, that's basically it.

All that being said I'm really excited about the future. Lots of payroll flexibility, lots of draft picks, lots of prospects. I can see what Hart is trying to do. I don't think even he wanted to do this though, I think Upton's contract forced him to. I think he would have preferred to keep Kimbrel. So as much as I hated Upton before we signed him, I hate him even more now. He basically forced us to trade Kimbrel.
 
ChapelHillMatt said:
He was just so fun to watch, I think it's going to hit us this week how hard this year is going to be. We are going to be a frustrating team to watch.
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Good. It'll give the youngster a small taste of what life was like during the 2nd half of the 80's. Only there are better pieces currently in place this time around.
 
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