GDT: 7/31/13 Rockies at Braves

BRule, who has said he's Felix 2.0?

Anyone or you making up stuff again.
 
There's a bunch of them:

Here is one....

When the Mariners drafted a high school basketball player from California in the sandwich round of the 2010 draft, there were quite a few heads scratched. The team had seemed to reach on a bunch of draft picks the year before. That guy has become the Taijuan Walker that none of us still know, but that we know about, and that we’re growing to love!

Walker is a guy who throws in the mid-high 90s, is supposed to have a plus-curveball. I have a soft spot in my heart for fastball-curveball guys. I think that the curve ball is the most amazing pitch in baseball. A lot of players have moved to sliders because they’re easier to throw for called strikes (perhaps because curveballs generally have a more vertical break, and it is harder for umpires to see). I used to be a fastball-curveball guy. I still try to be a fastball-curveball guy. Taijuan Walker is a fastball-curveball guy, and I’m growing love Taijuan Walker!

He’ll probably need a third pitch, and supposedly he’s working on a change up, but because a curveball comes at a much lower velocity than a fastball it works to upset a hitter’s timing, it should remain effective against lefties. It does this in addition to changing the angle and quality of contact, the main function of the slider.

At one time, Felix Hernandez was a fastball-curveball guy. He had one hell of a curveball. Now Hernandez has a changeup that is one of the most underappreciated pitches in baseball (Damn, Felix is sooo good), but there was a time when his changeup and slider were little more than show-me offerings. They didn’t have to be much more than that because his other two pitches were so good. He’s become much more balanced now, but he was a very good pitcher even without the four plus pitches he possesses today.

But don’t you remember how Felix was so good at such a young age? Taijuan Walker will be 19 next year. Taijuan Walker hasn’t had a legal drink in his entire life, and he’s still already struck out more than 100 professional hitters. He has also yielded 50.2 percent ground balls on all of his batted balls. That’s pretty damn good. Felix was also that good, and Walker may be a lot closer to Felix than we think.

This is a comparison of rate stats from both pitchers’ respective age 18 seasons.

Walker Felix

K/9 10.5 - 10.4

BB/9 3.6 - 2.8

K/BB 2.9 - 3.66

Let’s not go totally crazy. Felix pitched about 50 more innings and did it all at either Advanced A ball or Double A. Walker pitched in Clinton, which is the Mariners A ball affiliate.

However, while Felix pitched in the much-dreaded pitcher purgatory that is the California League, he didn’t do so for the High Desert Mavericks, who play in hitter’s heaven (isn’t alliteration fun!) Adelanto, California. Instead, he played in San Bernadino, for the Inland Empire 66ers, also perhaps the most pitcher-friendly park for a power pitcher in the entire California League.

It’s entirely possible that the Mariners would have put Walker at Inland Empire were the team still affiliated with the Mariners. He’ll probably never step foot in Adelanto. Good pitchers usually don’t (James Paxton skipped High Desert last year).

Worth noting though, is that Felix Hernandez’s age 18 season was actually his second full season of professional baseball. He’d been signed in 2002 and pitched a full season in Everett and Wisconsin, the Mariners two other A ball affiliates (low and standard A ball).

Walker’s well ahead of the curve for a pitcher of his age, or for a pitcher with his level of experience. He’s almost on par with Felix Hernandez, and if you consider some of the circumstances at work, he may be closer than his league-level indicates.

It’s not to say that Walker is going to be as good as Felix. He’s a prospect. He’s a really good one. And maybe better than I thought he was.
 
There's a bunch of them:

Here is one....

When the Mariners drafted a high school basketball player from California in the sandwich round of the 2010 draft, there were quite a few heads scratched. The team had seemed to reach on a bunch of draft picks the year before. That guy has become the Taijuan Walker that none of us still know, but that we know about, and that we’re growing to love!

Walker is a guy who throws in the mid-high 90s, is supposed to have a plus-curveball. I have a soft spot in my heart for fastball-curveball guys. I think that the curve ball is the most amazing pitch in baseball. A lot of players have moved to sliders because they’re easier to throw for called strikes (perhaps because curveballs generally have a more vertical break, and it is harder for umpires to see). I used to be a fastball-curveball guy. I still try to be a fastball-curveball guy. Taijuan Walker is a fastball-curveball guy, and I’m growing love Taijuan Walker!

He’ll probably need a third pitch, and supposedly he’s working on a change up, but because a curveball comes at a much lower velocity than a fastball it works to upset a hitter’s timing, it should remain effective against lefties. It does this in addition to changing the angle and quality of contact, the main function of the slider.

At one time, Felix Hernandez was a fastball-curveball guy. He had one hell of a curveball. Now Hernandez has a changeup that is one of the most underappreciated pitches in baseball (Damn, Felix is sooo good), but there was a time when his changeup and slider were little more than show-me offerings. They didn’t have to be much more than that because his other two pitches were so good. He’s become much more balanced now, but he was a very good pitcher even without the four plus pitches he possesses today.

But don’t you remember how Felix was so good at such a young age? Taijuan Walker will be 19 next year. Taijuan Walker hasn’t had a legal drink in his entire life, and he’s still already struck out more than 100 professional hitters. He has also yielded 50.2 percent ground balls on all of his batted balls. That’s pretty damn good. Felix was also that good, and Walker may be a lot closer to Felix than we think.

This is a comparison of rate stats from both pitchers’ respective age 18 seasons.

Walker Felix
K/9 10.5 - 10.4
BB/9 3.6 - 2.8
K/BB 2.9 - 3.66

Let’s not go totally crazy. Felix pitched about 50 more innings and did it all at either Advanced A ball or Double A. Walker pitched in Clinton, which is the Mariners A ball affiliate.

However, while Felix pitched in the much-dreaded pitcher purgatory that is the California League, he didn’t do so for the High Desert Mavericks, who play in hitter’s heaven (isn’t alliteration fun!) Adelanto, California. Instead, he played in San Bernadino, for the Inland Empire 66ers, also perhaps the most pitcher-friendly park for a power pitcher in the entire California League.

It’s entirely possible that the Mariners would have put Walker at Inland Empire were the team still affiliated with the Mariners. He’ll probably never step foot in Adelanto. Good pitchers usually don’t (James Paxton skipped High Desert last year).

Worth noting though, is that Felix Hernandez’s age 18 season was actually his second full season of professional baseball. He’d been signed in 2002 and pitched a full season in Everett and Wisconsin, the Mariners two other A ball affiliates (low and standard A ball).

Walker’s well ahead of the curve for a pitcher of his age, or for a pitcher with his level of experience. He’s almost on par with Felix Hernandez, and if you consider some of the circumstances at work, he may be closer than his league-level indicates.

It’s not to say that Walker is going to be as good as Felix. He’s a prospect. He’s a really good one. And maybe better than I thought he was.

That does absolutely nothing to say that Walker could be like Felix. All they are doing is comparing stats.

Wow.
 
In the 2010 draft, we knew that there was a once-in-a-decade hitting prospect and an absolutely stunning high school pitching prospect. There was no question that the Nationals were going to take the hitter, Bryce Harper, and sure enough two years later at the age of 19 he has seen success in the major leagues.

And what about the absolutely stunning pitching prospect? While Jameson Taillon has been very successful this season, one would have to question whether or not he would still be drafted ahead of the high school pitcher that was taken 41 picks after him: Taijuan Walker.

The Seattle Mariners were without a first round pick that season, having to surrender it to the hated Angels because of Chone Figgins, but was it a blessing in disguise that there was no fly in the ointment that could have prevented their destiny of drafting Walker in the supplemental first round? Even without a first rounder, the front office worked magic in order to get possibly the second best player in the draft.

Walker was drafted after: Taillon, Drew Pomeranz, Barret Loux, Matt Harvey, Karsten Whitson, Deck McGuire, Chris Sale, Dylan Covey, Hayden Simpson, Kaleb Cowart (by those Angels!), Michael Foltynewicz, Alex Wimmers, Jesse Biddle, Zach Lee, Cameron Bedrosian, Cito Culver, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, Anthony Ranaudo, and Asher Wojciechowski.

He was the 21st pitcher taken overall, the 13th high school pitcher, and went after players like Loux and Whitson that did not sign. And this isn't hindsight of five years that we are talking about here... it only took a year for us to really realize that the Mariners had an amazing steal in the prior draft, much like the steal that the Angels had with Mike Trout except that Walker was taken significantly later and yet are people really talking about what Walker has done and what he could be?

Perhaps it's the fact that Walker is not alone as a "top prospect" for Seattle, with much of the attention being shined on his AA Jackson Generals teammates Danny Hultzen and James Paxton. For a guy that is only 19-years-old, we can't really quantify how valuable it may be for him to not be "the guy" but simply be "one of the guys."

There is no pressure on Walker to perform right now or even this year, but eventually people are going to take notice. Eventually I believe you'll hear a lot of people say these words: "Taijuan Walker is the best pitching prospect in baseball."

The last time that those words were said about a Seattle Mariner, it was another teenage phenom that took the city by storm and encapsulated the Pacific Northwest with his charm and devastatingly effective repertoire of pitches. In fact, August will be the 7th Anniversary of Felix Hernandez making his debut for the Seattle Mariners and he did it at just 19 years of age. And boy, was he good.

Here is what King Felix did in his 2-4th start when he was only a teenager in the bigs: 24 innings, 26 K, 2 BB, 3 ER. Of course, people have sort of forgotten that it really took about four or five seasons for Felix to be dominant but he's been very good from the first time he stepped on a major league mound. But the King might be getting company in that spotlight soon with Walker.

Because while Hultzen could be great and Paxton could be very good, Taijuan Walker could be devastatingly effective and amazing, just like Felix has been. Walker is that special.

Skipping past his seven inning debut as a 17-year-old in 2010, let's get to last year when he made his full season debut in the minors as an 18-year-old in A-ball: 18 starts, 96.2 innings, 113 K, 39 BB, 2.89 ERA, 69 H, 4 HR allowed, 55% groundballs, 2.86 FIP.

This is in the Midwest League where all but ten hitters were under the age of twenty. Facing batters that were almost all more experienced than him, and as fans only knowing that he was "a raw work in progress that could be very good some day" and being the youngest pitcher in the league by nearly a full year, Walker dominated. He was fifth in the league in hits allowed per nine innings among starters, sixth in strikeouts per nine innings, and though his 3.6 walks per nine wasn't among the league leaders it was still pretty good, considering.

Baseball America noticed his efforts and put him at 20th overall after not having him on the top 100 the year prior, because nobody really knew much about him. That made him the 10th best pitching prospect in baseball, one spot ahead of his teammate Hultzen.

Now that we are a month into the season, is it too early to say that he's the best left in the minors? Let's discuss:

First of all, what has Walker done this season?

6 starts, 31.2 innings, 32 K, 10 BB, 25 H, 1.71 ERA, 1 HR allowed, 2.57 FIP, 48% groundballs. Walker has reduced his walk% per plate appearance from 10.2% to 7.9% and his probably coming off of his worst start of the season: 4 innings, 4 H, 2 doubles, 2 ER, 4 K, 2 BB. Which isn't terrible. Especially when you consider that Walker has skipped High-A.

Yes, that means that you don't take those numbers with a grain of salt. You take them with a grain of sugar? Whatever the opposite of "grain of salt" is. Because at age 19, he's the youngest player in the league. In fact, he is the only teenager in the Southern League. And on top of that, there is only one pitcher and one hitter besides Walker that are under the legal drinking age of 21.

He's that much younger than everyone else, and he's posting a 1.71 ERA.

Second of all, who could be better than him? He was the 10th best pitching prospect by BA, as I said, so how are the other nine doing?

1. Matt Moore - No longer a prospect. Hasn't been very good in the majors yet.

2. Yu Darvish - Never should have been considered a prospect.

3. Julio Teheran - At age 21 in AAA, 25.2 innings, 20 K/11 BB, 2.81 ERA. Very solid efforts.

4. Shelby Miller - 21 in AAA, 28.1 innings, 37 K, 15 BB, 4.45 ERA. He's giving up 11.1 hits per nine and 4.8 BB/9. Of course, the strikeouts are beautiful and him and Teheran are both very young for AAA.

5. Trevor Bauer - 21 at AA, 41.1 innings, 51 K, 25 BB, 1.96 ERA. Also pitches in the Southern League but two years older than Walker and needs to refine his command but has otherwise been great.

6. Dylan Bundy - 19 at A, 20 innings, 33 K, 2 BB, 0.00 ERA, 2 hits allowed. Okay fine, Bundy is ridiculous. Absolutely stupid. He's proper age for the league but really should be moved, even though the O's won't let him go past his pitch or innings limit for good reason. Bundy is special.

7. Gerrit Cole - 21 at High-A, 28 innings, 34 K, 10 BB, 3.54 ERA. It's good. It's definitely not bad. Would like to see him in AA though.

8. Tyler Skaggs - 20 at AA, 32.1 innings, 43 K, 7 BB, 3.06 ERA. Skaggs is also the same league as Walker (obviously as he is Diamondbacks buddies with Bauer) and is running a ridiculous 6.14 K/BB ratio.

9. Jameson Taillon - 20 at High-A, 30.2 innings, 33 K, 6 BB, 1.76 ERA, 19 hits allowed. Lower level than Walker and a year older.

So has he skipped past any of these guys?

Well obviously Moore and Darvish are out. What about the other seven?

Teheran is not running a good K/BB ratio, but I still think he's a very good prospect and will be a great pitcher. But he's two years older than Walker and I think Taijuan could post similar or better numbers in AAA. Some people thought that Miller should be the top pitching prospect in baseball and he's been good but he's still adjusting to AAA as well. I know people love Bauer, but in the same league as Walker he hasn't necessarily been that much more dominant (if at all) and is two years older, has a lower ceiling.

Cole is "meh." He was meh at the draft, he's meh now, but he could be a solid or great #2, or even a #1. But we haven't seen it yet and he needs to move up.

Skaggs has been great. Taillon has been great but I think that at best you say that him and Walker are "even" and because of the advanced level of Walker I would give him the edge.

That only leaves Dylan Bundy.

I think that arguments can be made for pretty much all of these guys and certainly different opinions on guys like Miller, Teheran, and Bauer are going to yield different results, but for my money the only guy that is really driving his price up right now like Walker is, would be Bundy.

He's unhittable. The O's might hold him back but what are his end-of-season numbers going to look like? There will be regression right? RIGHT?!

Right now, Walker has two plus-plus pitches with his high-90s fastball and dropneck curve. Those two pitches are what's going to make Walker an elite starter in the majors (if all goes well) but there are only two other aspects of his game left to work on that could make him one of the best in the business: the change-up and his command.

Walker has already reduced walks to start the year and if he can continue it, he will only get better with his other pitches as he gets older. The most important thing to note is the age at which he is doing this, because at this pace if he were to start next season in AAA, he'd still be younger than what Miller and Teheran are in AAA right now by a full year. He'd be one of the few 20-year-olds to really get a taste of AAA and I highly doubt that he would do badly.

At this point, he might just continue to dominate and he might get there as soon as this season. Even on an innings limit, the Mariners are going to have to advance him if he keeps going at this rate.

In 2005, Felix Hernandez got his first taste of AAA and he was only 19 years of age. He threw 88 innings, struck out 100 batters, walked 48, and had a 2.25 ERA. Certainly, you can see where his control was an issue but he was working on a devastating collection of pitches that would one day make him one of the top five starters in baseball. Eventually, the control and the command take care of themselves if you work hard at it, and Walker has also been praised for his work ethic.

When you look at Walker and what he's done at each level for such a young age, you can see the comparisons to Felix. There is no telling what his future holds but when I look at it from where I'm sitting I certainly see one of the best, if not the best, pitching prospect in all of baseball.

What say you?
 
The trade was Walker + Ramirez for Freeman.....no idea how it morphed into Minor for Walker.

That's still an awful trade.

Both of those prospects could easily bust or not turn out as good as hyped to be.
 
Again, these are just statistical comparisons. Its not comparing stuff/command/control. Nobody is saying Walker is the next Felix.
 
Ok BRule.

Should the Cardinals trade Allen Craig for that same deal.

They have Matt Adams waiting in the wings to play first.

And they need another top notch starter.
 
Again, these are just statistical comparisons. Its not comparing stuff/command/control. Nobody is saying Walker is the next Felix.

Are you blind?

When you look at Walker and what he's done at each level for such a young age, you can see the comparisons to Felix.
 
Are you blind?

When you look at Walker and what he's done at each level for such a young age, you can see the comparisons to Felix.

That is NOT a comparison of the pitchers projection or repertoire at all. Its taking the performance at one level of two players and comparing it. Minor league numbers aren't as important as major league numbers. You can't compare the stuff of the two. Felix has once in a generational stuff.

Also, please link your sources.
 
Are you blind?

When you look at Walker and what he's done at each level for such a young age, you can see the comparisons to Felix.

Felix is one of the best pitchers in the game. And will probably be in the HOF provided he stays healthy, he's not the next Felix. There is only one Felix.

There's a 5% chance he comes near Felix.
 
Don't even bother on linking Brule. Those two articles were exactly what I thought. Pieces written by Mariner people for their own websites. Those are not scouting opinions AT ALL.

BRULE FAIL!
 
Don't even bother on linking Brule. Those two articles were exactly what I thought. Pieces written by Mariner people for their own websites. Those are not scouting opinions AT ALL.

BRULE FAIL!

So a guy who covers minor league baseball for a living doesn't count? Cool, good to know.
 
Ok BRule.

Should the Cardinals trade Allen Craig for that same deal.

They have Matt Adams waiting in the wings to play first.

And they need another top notch starter.

The Cardinals have 2 aces, and a 3rd and 4th in the minors. What are you talking about
 
So a guy who covers minor league baseball for a living doesn't count? Cool, good to know.

Did you say that you would take the opinion of a guy who covers minor league baseball for a living over yours?

Everyones best friend Bill covered minor league baseball for a living but you couldn't give two poops about what he used to say.

So now you are just being selective. I'm not saying that this person doesn't have a valid reason for thinking what they do. I'm sure he has seen him pitch several times. But the fact of the matter is there is no independent scouts who have ever compared Walker to Felix. You know why? Because Felix Hernandez is going to go down as one of the best pitchers of the last 50 years.
 
Did you say that you would take the opinion of a guy who covers minor league baseball for a living over yours?

Everyones best friend Bill covered minor league baseball for a living but you couldn't give two poops about what he used to say.

So now you are just being selective. I'm not saying that this person doesn't have a valid reason for thinking what they do. I'm sure he has seen him pitch several times. But the fact of the matter is there is no independent scouts who have ever compared Walker to Felix. You know why? Because Felix Hernandez is going to go down as one of the best pitchers of the last 50 years.

Did I EVER say he WAS or IS Felix? You two are so dense that you can't comprehend anything....

You take the 1b, I'll take the high end pitching prospect.
 
Did I EVER say he WAS or IS Felix? You two are so dense that you can't comprehend anything....

You take the 1b, I'll take the high end pitching prospect.

I'll take the proven 1B whose proven to be one of the best hitters in baseball. And has gotten better every year.

You take the next Felix which he won't become close too.
 
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