Chris Johnson - NL Batting Leader

Good analysis.

Guess we'll see. He is an anomaly with the K's. he just looks like a nice hitter to me. He squares so many balls, you'd think he wouldn't K as much.
 
Johnson Ks so much cause he swings at everything.

He swings at 53.7% of all pitches he faces, but the thing is that he swings at 38.1% of the pitches he sees that are out of the strike zone. He makes contact very well, but he goes fishing too often and it's hard to put balls in play out of the zone. He's basically got similar swing in terms to total swing and contact numbers as Freeman, but Freddie swings at less offerings out of the zone. The guys with the lower K% for the most part on the team are guys like Mac and Heyward who're more selective and rarely swing out of the zone. They make about the same contact as Freeman and Johnson but everything they hit is in the zone.
 
What % do Freeman and Heyward swing at out of the zone?

I couldn't help but notice last night with his streak on the line, he walked his last two at bats. He isn't Francoeur.
 
Freeman swings out of the zone around 33% of the time, Heyward around 28% Uggla is the lowest but he also has the lowest z contact% of anyone on the team. Johnson puts anything he swings at in the zone in play, that's probably the biggest reason why he is hitting for as high of an average as he is. He's not swinging through balls just making solid contact.
 
zitothebrave said:
That makes sense. Maybe his recognition is improving, too, which would make more of this stupifying year sustainable. Is that 38% better than prior years? How's that trend?

Scoutheads and Statheads can get along. And even though he was a Scouthead, I still thought Bill was a puke.
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Russ2dollas said:
Agree. Maybe it's b/c most of the baseball I have seen recently is with an older Chipper. Maybe if I saw Machado everyday I'd know the difference.

But CJ looks like an avg 3B to me with below avg range. Not awful range. And overall not an awful defender.

And the numbers don't factor in how he fits in our line up. He moves the order along. We have plenty of power, we don't need it from him. He is exactly what we need (at least right now). IMO we really need another high avg hitter to really get the offense to sing.

I've seen JUp look stupid on a handful of plays this year. Uggla too. I don't see CJ looking like a moron out there.
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I agree.

I'd like to see us deal Uggla this winter and move LaStella in the lineu everyday. If possible even with eating some of the contract. Not trade Johnson who has been pretty solid.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
That makes sense. Maybe his recognition is improving, too, which would make more of this stupifying year sustainable. Is that 38% better than prior years? How's that trend?

Scoutheads and Statheads can get along. And even though he was a Scouthead, I still thought Bill was a puke.
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38% out of the zone is basically what he did last year. It's below his career but his career is up cause he was in the 40s for 2010 and 2011. His swing rate is largely on par with his career norms. What's outlier for him this year is his LD%, his career average is 25% (which is why he will be a high BABIP guy) but this year he's above and beyond that at 29%.
 
This was from John Sickels scouting book in 2010:

Chris Johnson has some pop in his bat, but his unimpressive strike zone judgment holds his offense back. His OPS was just +3 percent in the Pacific Coast League last year, and he looked overmatched in his major league time, granted a 22 at-bat sample is tiny. On the positive side, he's a solid defender at third base, with decent range and a very strong throwing arm. I think Johnson can hit .250 with 15 homers as season in the majors, but his OBP would be below average and his overall production would be substandard for a corner player. Unless his plate discipline takes a huge leap forward, I think he's destined to bounce between Triple-A and the major league bench jobs. Grade C.
 
Olney just said that CJ told him that when the Braves acquired him they told him to just focus on hitting line drives and not on hitting homers anymore. That makes a lot of sense with his line drive % at an all time high and his homer rate nearly cut in half. Really smart by the Braves considering how many home run hitters we have on the team.
 
cajunrevenge said:
Olney just said that CJ told him that when the Braves acquired him they told him to just focus on hitting line drives and not on hitting homers anymore. That makes a lot of sense with his line drive % at an all time high and his homer rate nearly cut in half. Really smart by the Braves considering how many home run hitters we have on the team.
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He hit 25% LD's on his career. He's also hitting more grounders than before. Now I'll admit he's done well improving BABIP numbers but his HR/FB took a dip.
 
Again, maybe Johnson has such poor defensive stats because he never has gotten this much everyday play in his career.
 
thethe said:
Again, maybe Johnson has such poor defensive stats because he never has gotten this much everyday play in his career.
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Johnson played 1000 innings at 3B last year. He had 2700 innings at 3B in the previous 3 seasons. Hardly a part time player.
 
zitothebrave said:
Johnson played 1000 innings at 3B last year. He had 2700 innings at 3B in the previous 3 seasons. Hardly a part time player.
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Its still not an everyday player. Its just an assumption but I would imagine that players get into a rhythm not only at the plate but in the field.
 
He play 123 games there. How is that not everyday? Ok no he didn't play 1397 innings there last year like Headley but I severely doubt given the scope of his career he would have saved 10 runs in those 300 more innings. Stop trying to attempt to explain away Johnson sucking. If you want to delude yourself into thinking he's not a liability with the glove that's your perogative. I'm here to deal facts not argue opinions.
 
zitothebrave said:
He play 123 games there. How is that not everyday? Ok no he didn't play 1397 innings there last year like Headley but I severely doubt given the scope of his career he would have saved 10 runs in those 300 more innings. Stop trying to attempt to explain away Johnson sucking. If you want to delude yourself into thinking he's not a liability with the glove that's your perogative. I'm here to deal facts not argue opinions.
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Your facts are not facts though...Thats what you fail to understand. Its data based on conjecture.
 
zitothebrave said:
How is it based on conjecture? By that standard everything in the universe is based on conjecture.
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No, because assumptions are being made about defensive statistics. Its not a direct observable input such as how many balls go over the fence. There is a distinction here Zito.
 
zitothebrave said:
He hit 25% LD's on his career. He's also hitting more grounders than before. Now I'll admit he's done well improving BABIP numbers but his HR/FB took a dip.
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4% improvement in line drive % is a big deal. I would say that his increased groundball rate is a result of him attempting to hit more line drives and not trying to get loft on the balls to hit homers. Groundballs result in hits more often than fly balls but they are far less likely to be extra base hits. If he maintains his approach I think he can hit .300, but not .330 in the future.
 
cajunrevenge said:
Olney just said that CJ told him that when the Braves acquired him they told him to just focus on hitting line drives and not on hitting homers anymore. That makes a lot of sense with his line drive % at an all time high and his homer rate nearly cut in half. Really smart by the Braves considering how many home run hitters we have on the team.
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Good to CJ to listen to the coaches. We have lots of power. IF BJ listens like CJ then that contract might end up ok.
 
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