Farewell to Wood, Peraza, Jimmy Johns, and Avilans.
- Thread starter CrimsonCowboy
- Start date
Tapate50
Well-known member
Toronto did instead
zbhargrove
Well-known member
ESPN sure has crapped the bed lately... I got phone updates that the Gomez/Mets trade and the Wood/Dodgers trade were done completed deals... whoops
We pretty much knew the Braves were going to convert young pitching plus Peraza into a controllable RHed impact bat at 3B, LF or C. This is that trade, and it gives the Braves their guy at 3B for around $5M per year (how good he will actually be at the MLB level is definitely a topic for debate). Such a low salary still makes it possible to make a huge addition in LF or C, and/or possibly that Ace everyone has been clamoring for Hart to sign. Guys that can put up an 800+ OPS and play 3B don't come easily (especially when they cost $5M per year), and we just saw the price is apparently a young proven SP and a light hitting up the middle prospect. Hart can only buy what's available, and bats like Olivera simply aren't available very often, which is why he cost $60M+ to sign in the first place.
The rest of the trade was a rental BP arm and a decent Loogy for a guy that should be much better than Avilan plus a pick that should acquire a player better than both JJ and Avilan, and possibly as good as the headliners (remember next year's draft class is loaded).
If the Braves "lost" the Olivera for Peraza/Wood portion of the trade, they "won" the JJ/Avilan for Paco/35th portion of it by a large margin.
The rest of the trade was a rental BP arm and a decent Loogy for a guy that should be much better than Avilan plus a pick that should acquire a player better than both JJ and Avilan, and possibly as good as the headliners (remember next year's draft class is loaded).
If the Braves "lost" the Olivera for Peraza/Wood portion of the trade, they "won" the JJ/Avilan for Paco/35th portion of it by a large margin.
Millwood1Hitter
Anytime Now Frankie...
So now what? Wood is now the best pitcher available on the market with Price gone?
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
Man, Toronto could be really good now. If they don't do it this year, that sucks. But man.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
Puig AND Olivera and I'm dying of happy.
Teheran/Carrasco
striker42
Well-known member
The potential reward better be a lot better than .270/.320/.450 for us to take on the risk of Olivera. If that's the likely payoff of a healthy Olivera, we're essentially trading for and older Kyle Seager with a lot more risk.
If Olivera were guaranteed to be that, trading Wood for him would be okay but I wouldn't even consider adding in Peraza. The risk attached to Olivera drains so much value from him.
I have a feeling the Braves are expecting to get a guy who will hit .320 with 25 HRs a year. Olivera wasn't even that guy in Cuba when he was younger. Why they would expect him to come to the majors and hit like that at age 30 is beyond me.
dak
Well-known member
Here's how I break it up:
Paco for Luis and Jim: Edge to Braves, but the least consequential part of deal.
Wood at 4 / $30m for Olivera at 6 / $34.5m: Most important part of deal, but only a slight edge to Dodgers. This is where many of you may disagree with me.
Peraza for Bird and 34th pick (assumes market value at ~$5m): 2nd most important part of deal, and clear edge to Dodgers.
Millwood1Hitter
Anytime Now Frankie...
Hopefully Hart's masterplan...wishful thinking I know.
Get the Dodger's tied up in a trade to acquire a top notch starter in Wood, allow the other best options on the market to go elsewhere (Price, Hamels, Cueto), decline the medicals on Olivera and restart negotiations and get someone maybe even the Dodgers to panic and give up significantly more, all the while driving up Tehran's value to the rival of the potential team that acquires Wood.
Fingers crossed.
LOOK WHat I did. Would you just look at that!
Cmon Hart, we know you're the master of spin.
But the gap between the first part is much bigger than the gap between the second part.
We have no idea if Olivera will be healthy, we have no idea that, if healthy, he can OPS at .800, and we thought 'young pitching' meant prospects, not Wood.
We paid about the value of a 28-year-old with no injury history already OPS'ing above .800. That's not even close to what Olivera is.
Good Post....I see it as Bird for JJ which we win, Paco for Avilan which we win, and Wood/Peraza for Olivera, #35 pick, and $28 million (which is the debate part). I think this may be a win for both in the end.
A 28 year old 3B OPSing above .800 would likely have a year away from being a FA or hitting the free agency and getting at least $15 million per year. We can't forget about the money. It's always about the money.
Based purely on stats and comparisons, I don't know why anyone would project better than that. We definitely are not getting a .300+ hitter. He may be able to put up 20 HR. May.
I'm saying even if years/money are the same. Even if you think the money is a good deal, that doesn't make up for the risk involved with Olivera.
dak
Well-known member
In a word, Yes.
I think Braves could have / should have made a better deal. Not a disaster, but a bad deal. I think this deal is less risky than some are suggesting though. I suspect there may be some that hate the risk in this deal but are foaming at the mouth to sign guys like Price and Upton to albatross deals. I think this deal is less harmful to the Braves future than some of the potential free agent signings folks are longing for.
striker42
Well-known member
I agree with the projection. I was thinking probably a .280 or so hitter myself, if he's healthy and can stave off age.
However, the only way this trade makes sense from the Braves perspective is if they think Olivera will be a .300+ hitter with 20+ HRs a year. With the risk associated with him, that would have to be the potential reward to turn this trade from a hatchet job into a simple loss for Atlanta.