Peraza debuts for Dodgers

[Russ2dollas]

A lot of people see a lot of value in Olivera at about $5.5MM per year. Non-Braves homers, even. So are they just delusional homers, too?

Of course there is value. I have seen several sources say that Olivera is the best player or best prospect in the deal.

But you have to judge the trade now. You judge it based on the information you have at the time of the trade. That's the information the two GMs had.

The true impact of the trade will take time. If Olivera is a stud that changes things. If Olivera or Wood blows out that changes things. If Bird puts all his potential together than that changes things. If we draft Mike Trout or Kurt Brown that changes things.

If Olivera isn't an impact bat from Day 1 we lost. The question will be how bad we lost unless the pick of Bird reaches max value. Just b/c Wood blows out or Peraza stinks, doesn't mean we made a good decision.

 

[sturg33]

You are the worst at redirecting an argument.

Would you have made the same deal for Turner? I wouldn't have.

 

[zbhargrove]

Would you have made the same deal for Turner? I wouldn't have.

Only because I don't like his peripherals and splits... I think his success is an illusion.

 

[smootness]

100%.

Shields just passed waivers (I think I saw that)... Wood would have never

Yes, he did. Because he's 33, posting an ERA of 3.75 and FIP of 4.21, and will cost $63 million over the next 3 years. And he was never an ace. San Diego is really stupid.

Arguing that Shields has more value than Wood is asinine. At 24, Shields was a rookie posting a 4.84 ERA. He then had 2 pretty good years at 25 and 26 (though still only better in number of IP than any season Wood has yet had). He then posted 2 years with a 4+ ERA at 27 and 28 before turning himself into a good, not great, pitcher for the next 4 years.

But yes, he has more value than Alex Wood.

 

[smootness]

He was most certainly blocked with the log jam that the Dodgers had with Kendrick/Turner/Seager/Guerrero... hell even the guy some call the top prospect in baseball (Seager) can't even break in for his chance. I'm not a supporter of this trade for the record... I didn't like it at all, but let's not delude ourselves by saying Olivera wasn't blocked. That's ludicrous.

If the Dodgers don't believe Olivera could play 2B, then it didn't make sense to keep him because of what Turner is doing now and having Seager coming (though if they view Seager as a SS, then he wasn't even blocked at 3B for very long). But if they really believe Olivera was blocked by either Kendrick or Guerrero, that doesn't bode well for their view of Olivera's talent. Kendrick is OPS'ing at .758, has put up an OPS of .800 once in his career (.802) and has been worth barely over 1 WAR so far this year. Guerrero is replacement-level at best; I have no idea why people keep mentioning him as though he's worth something.

 

[sturg33]

If the Dodgers don't believe Olivera could play 2B, then it didn't make sense to keep him because of what Turner is doing now and having Seager coming (though if they view Seager as a SS, then he wasn't even blocked at 3B for very long). But if they really believe Olivera was blocked by either Kendrick or Guerrero, that doesn't bode well for their view of Olivera's talent. Kendrick is OPS'ing at .758, has put up an OPS of .800 once in his career (.802) and has been worth barely over 1 WAR so far this year. Guerrero is replacement-level at best; I have no idea why people keep mentioning him as though he's worth something.

I think best case, Olivera turns into Kendrick with the bat

 

[smootness]

By the way, Alex Guerrero's Cuban numbers:

19 years old: .293/.365/.414

20 years old: .296/.391/.504

21 years old: .338/.408/.641

22 years old: .343/.414/.583

23 years old: .310/.401/.599

24 years old: .290/.402/.576

Pretty good walk rates, never struck out more than 44 times (in 376 AB). In AAA, his BB rate was 3.9% and his K rate was 17.1%. In over 200 major league PAs, he has a BB rate of 2.5% and a K rate of 26.1%. He is hitting under .240 with an OBP under .270.

As a 20-year-old, Olivera posted a .262/.351/.361 line in Cuba. At 23 and 24, he posted lines of .346/.444/.590 and .322/.415/.565. Overall in Cuba, he had slightly higher averages and higher OBPs than Guerrero, though with less power and at older ages.

Olivera's BB rate and K rate in the minors this year (in an admittedly SSS) were 6.8% and 12.2%, his overall line was not as good as Guerrero's. Guerrero is also younger and without the injury issues. So why are we so convinced Olivera will be very good? And how in the world is that worth Wood and Peraza?

 

[Chico]

I don't really have an opinion on this since we haven't seen Olivera yet but, by all accounts Olivera is supposed to be a star player. So let's compare him to another 30 yr old Cuban star in Cespedes. Cespedes wins in the power, but Olviera beats him in the OBP (which looks video gamish) and defense at a more prime position. Cespedes is about to get around 5/100M. We have Olivera for 5/32. We don't know what a first round pick is "worth". We paid 6.5M for Minter, and 10M for Touki. The pick will probably be in the high 20's, but in a very deep draft, so let's say it's worth 8M. That's 76 Million in value that we got for Wood and Peraza. This is pure speculation, but it is another way to look at it, since the team is looking to avoid the FA pitfalls.

 

[Chico]

I think best case, Olivera turns into Kendrick with the bat

I'm thinking Matt Carpenter or Manny Machado (but not his elite defense)

 

[Deester11]

I don't really have an opinion on this since we haven't seen Olivera yet but, by all accounts Olivera is supposed to be a star player. So let's compare him to another 30 yr old Cuban star in Cespedes. Cespedes wins in the power, but Olviera beats him in the OBP (which looks video gamish) and defense at a more prime position. Cespedes is about to get around 5/100M. We have Olivera for 5/32. We don't know what a first round pick is "worth". We paid 6.5M for Minter, and 10M for Touki. The pick will probably be in the high 20's, but in a very deep draft, so let's say it's worth 8M. That's 76 Million in value that we got for Wood and Peraza. This is pure speculation, but it is another way to look at it, since the team is looking to avoid the FA pitfalls.

Pretty good thoughts Chico. Good way of looking at it.

 

[nsacpi]

I don't really have an opinion on this since we haven't seen Olivera yet but, by all accounts Olivera is supposed to be a star player. So let's compare him to another 30 yr old Cuban star in Cespedes. Cespedes wins in the power, but Olviera beats him in the OBP (which looks video gamish) and defense at a more prime position. Cespedes is about to get around 5/100M. We have Olivera for 5/32. We don't know what a first round pick is "worth". We paid 6.5M for Minter, and 10M for Touki. The pick will probably be in the high 20's, but in a very deep draft, so let's say it's worth 8M. That's 76 Million in value that we got for Wood and Peraza. This is pure speculation, but it is another way to look at it, since the team is looking to avoid the FA pitfalls.

So far so good. Keep going and give us an estimated dollar value for Wood and Peraza.

 

[Chico]

So far so good. Keep going and give us an estimated dollar value for Wood and Peraza.

Good question. Let's say 60% of what one of the "exaggerators" posts here shortly.

 

[smootness]

I don't really have an opinion on this since we haven't seen Olivera yet but, by all accounts Olivera is supposed to be a star player. So let's compare him to another 30 yr old Cuban star in Cespedes. Cespedes wins in the power, but Olviera beats him in the OBP (which looks video gamish) and defense at a more prime position. Cespedes is about to get around 5/100M. We have Olivera for 5/32. We don't know what a first round pick is "worth". We paid 6.5M for Minter, and 10M for Touki. The pick will probably be in the high 20's, but in a very deep draft, so let's say it's worth 8M. That's 76 Million in value that we got for Wood and Peraza. This is pure speculation, but it is another way to look at it, since the team is looking to avoid the FA pitfalls.

First, how do you know Olivera's defense is better than Cespedes'? Cespedes has been above-average defensively; I haven't seen anyone say Olivera will clearly be that. In fact, there are questions about Olivera's defense, especially his arm given his elbow issues.

Second, Olivera put up a better OBP than Cespedes, but not by much. Cespedes put up a .442 OBP at 19, then .411, .426, and .424 at 22-24. His overall OBP in Cuba (ages 17-24) was around .010 worse than the OBP Olivera put up from 18-28.

And Cespedes' power, especially given his age, was far better than Olivera's. Considering that Cespedes' OBP in the majors has been below-average and the only reason he has value offensively is his power, I don't know that that's a ringing endorsement of Olivera.

Olivera is about 6 months older than Cespedes, without the major league track record, and with far more injury concerns. I have no idea how you can say Olivera's value is similar to Cespedes'.

Even ignoring all this, we already know what Olivera's value on the market is. He was just on the market. Why in the world would you use a comparison to a speculation on what someone else will make when we already know how Olivera was valued.

Olivera was given $62 million. Considering we're still paying $32 million of that, I'm going to assign the value saved to us at $30, not $68. Even using the $8 million valuation of the pick, that $38 million doesn't come close to what Wood and Peraza would bring, combined, on the market.

 

[thethe]

Can you send me anyone who is calling this trade a win for the Braves?

Olivera at $5.5M is fine. The issue is, he's not a prospect, so we're paying for two of those years before we really need them. So then we have to hope that he is productive at 32 onward, and he's already an injury nightmare.

Additionally - Olivera at $5.5M is a fine deal. But we paid Wood and Peraza too.

So by that logic then we really only traded 2 years of wood at expensive rates and 5 years of Peraza?

 

[thethe]

Kendrick is a FA... and they just managed to find room for Peraza

Kendrick is banged up.

 

[smootness]

Kendrick is banged up.

If you think Kendrick is blocking Olivera, that is not a good sign for Olivera's value.

 

[Chico]

First, how do you know Olivera's defense is better than Cespedes'? Cespedes has been above-average defensively; I haven't seen anyone say Olivera will clearly be that. In fact, there are questions about Olivera's defense, especially his arm given his elbow issues.

Second, Olivera put up a better OBP than Cespedes, but not by much. Cespedes put up a .442 OBP at 19, then .411, .426, and .424 at 22-24. His overall OBP in Cuba (ages 17-24) was around .010 worse than the OBP Olivera put up from 18-28.

And Cespedes' power, especially given his age, was far better than Olivera's. Considering that Cespedes' OBP in the majors has been below-average and the only reason he has value offensively is his power, I don't know that that's a ringing endorsement of Olivera.

Olivera is about 6 months older than Cespedes, without the major league track record, and with far more injury concerns. I have no idea how you can say Olivera's value is similar to Cespedes'.

Even ignoring all this, we already know what Olivera's value on the market is. He was just on the market. Why in the world would you use a comparison to a speculation on what someone else will make when we already know how Olivera was valued.

Olivera was given $62 million. Considering we're still paying $32 million of that, I'm going to assign the value saved to us at $30, not $68. Even using the $8 million valuation of the pick, that $38 million doesn't come close to what Wood and Peraza would bring, combined, on the market.

I used the $100M, because there have been people suggesting we go spend that on Cepsedes which I cannot agree with. We're looking for bats, and clearly do not want to go that route. So we had to get a little more creative.

 

[smootness]

I used the $100M, because there have been people suggesting we go spend that on Cepsedes which I cannot agree with. We're looking for bats, and clearly do not want to go that route. So we had to get a little more creative.

That...makes no sense. You used Cespedes as a comparison and used the potential $68 million in contracts as value we gained on our side of the equation in the Wood deal. So you were, in fact, saying they are basically the same player overall and basically have the same value.

If we are accounting for the difference in contract, then we have to also account for the difference in talent and injury concerns that Olivera brings...which was accounted for when he was on the market 6 months ago. So that is not savings as value; it is just the different cost of two different players. The difference in money may allow us to go get someone else, but that is not the same as saying 'we got a $100 million player for $32 million,' which is what you initially said.

This is like saying, 'We only paid Markakis $44 million over 4 years, and Cespedes will make $80 million over the same span, so we got an extra $36 million in value there.' It doesn't make sense. It's just the different cost for a player not as valuable as another.

 

[thethe]

If you think Kendrick is blocking Olivera, that is not a good sign for Olivera's value.

Is Olivera a second baseman though? I was responding to how Peraza got playing time.

 

[Chico]

That...makes no sense. You used Cespedes as a comparison and used the potential $68 million in contracts as value we gained on our side of the equation in the Wood deal. So you were, in fact, saying they are basically the same player overall and basically have the same value.

If we are accounting for the difference in contract, then we have to also account for the difference in talent and injury concerns that Olivera brings...which was accounted for when he was on the market 6 months ago. So that is not savings as value; it is just the different cost of two different players. The difference in money may allow us to go get someone else, but that is not the same as saying 'we got a $100 million player for $32 million,' which is what you initially said.

This is like saying, 'We only paid Markakis $44 million over 4 years, and Cespedes will make $80 million over the same span, so we got an extra $36 million in value there.' It doesn't make sense. It's just the different cost for a player not as valuable as another.

Cespedes got 4/36 when he came over Olivera got 6/62. So obviously there are some who have factored in talent and like Olivera more. The fact is we do not know Olivera's true value since we have not seen him. We're all just guessing, but Braves fans are the only ones who are devaluing him, which leads me to believe it's more of an emotional thing than logic.