Around Baseball Offseason Thread

Step one: Sure up the catching situation (Lucroy please... lol)
Step two: fix the bullpen.
Step three: USE MONEY and sign a long term pitcher.
Step four: use assets for offense.
Step five: Success

This may take some time, but it's a good plan. The bullpen is still the most important thing right now in my opinion. Killed us last year!
 
Would imagine we'll be kicking the tires on Chad Qualls and possibly even Andrew Bailey as pen options at the right price. Both hit the market today.

Have to figure we'd have claimed Dan Otero if the Phillies had passed.
 
Otero would've been great. Good move by the Phillies.

Wouldn't mind throwing a deal at Lee if he would agree to a "cheap" option for 2017.
 
Right-Handed Relievers

David Aardsma (34
Matt Albers (33)
Burke Badenhop (33)
Matt Belisle (36)
Joaquin Benoit (38) – $8MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
Rafael Betancourt (41)
Joe Blanton (35)
Blaine Boyer (34)
Jonathan Broxton (32)
Trevor Cahill (28)
Joba Chamberlain (30)
Tyler Clippard (31)
Wade Davis (30) — $8MM club option
Justin De Fratus (28)
Jason Frasor (38)
Ernesto Frieri (30)
David Hernandez (31)
Roberto Hernandez (35)
Tommy Hunter (29)
Edwin Jackson (32)
Casey Janssen (34)
Jim Johnson (33)
Shawn Kelley (32)
Mark Lowe (33)
Ryan Madson (36)
Nick Masset (34)
Jason Motte (34)
Edward Mujica (32)
Joe Nathan (41) – $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Darren O’Day (33)
Bobby Parnell (31)
Joel Peralta (40) – $2.5MM club option (no buyout)
Fernando Rodney (39)
Joakim Soria (32)
Tim Stauffer (33)
Dale Thayer (35)
Chad Qualls (37) – $3.25MM club option with a $250K buyout
Carlos Villanueva (32)
Ryan Webb (30)
Brad Ziegler (36) – $5.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Left-Handed Relievers

Antonio Bastardo (30)
Joe Beimel (39)
Jerry Blevins (32)
Craig Breslow (35)
Chris Capuano (37)
Neal Cotts (36)
Randy Choate (40)
Ross Detwiler (30)
Brian Duensing (33)
Jeff Francis (35)
Tom Gorzelanny (33)
J.P. Howell (33) – $6.25MM player option
Sean Marshall (33)
Franklin Morales (30)
Eric O’Flaherty (31)
Manny Parra (33)
Oliver Perez (34)
James Russell (30)
Tony Sipp (32)
Joe Thatcher (34)
Matt Thornton (39)
 
Greg Holland (will be out for most, if not all of 16 though)
Darren O'Day
Shawn Kelley
Ryan Madson
Tyler Clippard
 
Olivera to play some LF in Winter ball. More interestingly, the FO thinks he'll eventually end up in LF. I wonder if we'll at least evaluate the 3B market this offseason. I'm more bullish on Olivera's bat than a lot of folks here, but his defense is a big concern.

Update on Hector Olivera after 4 Winter League games in Puerto Rico. Has played 2 games as a DH and 2 games in LF. Nice start offensively: 7 for 17 with two 2Bs, no Ks, and no BBs.
 
Otero would've been great. Good move by the Phillies.

Wouldn't mind throwing a deal at Lee if he would agree to a "cheap" option for 2017.

Cliff Lee lives here in Little Rock in the offseason. I don't know him personally, but we have mutual acquaintances through youth baseball. In fact, one of the teams I coached in the past wore Phillies (spit) jerseys generously provided by Cliff and his wife.

I was told mid-season last year that Cliff wouldn't be playing again, that he was basically retired already due to the injury. Would love to see the Braves take a flyer on him, but I don't see it happening. I think he's about ready to spend time with the family and watch the kids grow up.
 
Just can't possibly see Freddie being dealt at this point. The problem with dealing Freeman is that this is the last season you have him for below market value ($12 million) - he makes $20+ per starting in 2017. JMO, but the only team that appears to be a 1B away from being a contender is Pittsburgh, and they're not able to pay what he's owed after this season. Someone would absolutely have to "sell out" and overpay to get him (much like Simmons), and I don't see anyone that will. The Pirates NEED a 1B, but they're not going to deal what it would take to get him and then try to turn around and trade him next winter to replace some of those prospects when everyone else knows they have to move him.

Don't get me wrong - Freddie would be great for a lot of teams, but not likely any of them that he fits as that final puzzle piece, The problem with Pittsburgh is the contract. The problem with Cleveland is that he's probably not enough - by himself - to push them past the Royals or Tigers. I'm sure Baltimore would love to have him replace Davis, but I don't think they have the pieces to get him (Jomar Reyes and Chance Sisco would have to be part of the package I'd guess) - even if they did, why unload the farm AND pay Freeman $118.5 million (what's left on his contract) when they could just re-sign Davis? Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, Angels, White Sox, Marlins, Gnats, Mutts, Giants, Reds, Cardinals, Phillies, Diamondbacks, A's, Rangers, and Rockies are all likely "no's" - and Milwaukee, Seattle, and San Diego likely don't have what it would take to get him.

The Red Sox COULD be a "maybe" IMO, but I doubt Dombrowski would give up what Coppy & Co. would want - probably Devers and Margot and possibly more. An interesting proposal for them might be Miller or Teheran and Freeman for Jackie Bradey, Devers, Margot, Anderson Espinoza, and Sam Travis. That's a deal I don't think the Braves could possibly say no to, but is so far out there it's scary to imagine (as well as one that could get Dombrowski chased out of town in a hurry). They have enough money that they might be able to buy down a little bit of Hanley's contract and pawn him off on someone else for a prospect or two like the Dodgers did with Kemp, and could still go out and get one of the "Aces" and be right back in the mix in a hurry.

2016 Red Sox

CF- Betts, 2B- Pedroia, 1B- Freeman, DH- Ortiz, SS- Bogaerts, 3B- Sandoval, C- Swihart, RF- Holt (with Moncada and Benintendi coming), LF- Castillo

Rotation: "Ace", Teheran, Porcello, Miley, Eduardo Rodriguez (with Henry Owens, Brian Johnson, Steven Wright, and Joe Kelly for depth).

Again, just daydreaming, but that sure would be a *ell of an exclamation point on the rebuild. Our organizational depth chart would be ridiculous when looking at it a year from now with ALL of the long-term commitments (of any consequence) off the books unless you sign Miller to an extension...

SPs - Miller (or Teheran), Minor (if kept and healthy), Wisler, Folty, Banuelos, Williams Perez, Weber, Jenkins, Sims, Gant, Thurman, Allard, Toussaint, Fried, Espinoza, Sanchez, Soroka, Minter

C- Bethancourt, Herbert, Jonathon Morales

1B- Travis, Ruiz, Dustin Peterson, Riley, Juan Yepez, Jonathon Morales



2B- Peterson, Ciriaco, Albies, Dykstra

SS- Castro, Ciriaco, Albies,

3B- Olivera, Garcia, Ruiz, Devers, Riley

LF- Olivera, Garcia, Lien, Peterson, Riley, Ronald Acuna

CF- Bradley, Smith, Lien, Randy Ventura

RF- Markakis, Bradley, Lien, Davidson



and that's before going nuts on international signings this winter adding Maitan and others plus next year's #3 pick and others. You want the best farm system in baseball? You've got it.

I see Cleveland as a definite destination for Freeman, especially if you also send Maybin. They culled payroll and should have room for both, but depending on the return, I could see the Braves sending some cash or taking back some salary (not Johnson). They have the pitching and have minor league pitching depth where they could trade 1-2 existing ML starters AFTER 2016 to clear any payroll necessary to keep paying Freeman. Maybin gives them their CF bridge to Zimmer. Freeman fills a gaping 1B hole. Both combined provide them with at least 4 net WAR. Cleveland is likely already ahead of Detroit and could easily surpass KC since KC stands to lose quite a bit and are built without much margin of error. A Freeman, Maybin trade for Frazier, Naquin, Bradley and Mejia trade makes sense for both teams because it brings needed value to the Braves and provides the middle of the order bat that Cleveland needs without detracting from their minor league pitching depth which they will need as their rotation ages and gets more expensive.

Pittsburgh also makes sense because they have been cloooose so often but can't quite push forward. They are shedding some payroll with Burnett and Ramirez out the door and maybe Happ. The Braves could take back 2B Walker and 1B/OF Morse or they could release Alvarez. Maybe do a Freeman, Peterson for Walker, Meadows and Bell. Then the Braves move Walker for talent if possible (or Pirates do that, as rumored, to another team but have to include another piece to the Braves such as Wily Garcia). The Pirates have a top prospect for 2B ready to go in Allen Hanson and they are on the clock to make something happen as McCutchen is gone after 2018.

Boston probably goes pitching but really needs a guy like Freeman. The Braves might have to take a bad contract back and I'm not sure they want to do that. Maybe Freeman & Maybin for Ramirez (play him at 1B hopefully), Moncada and Guerra. Neither team likely does it. Braves would have to get a lot back to take on the risk of the Ramirez contract.
 
The deeper we get in this rebuild/retool or whatever, the more I am in on trading bigger names.. Not saying I would be upset if we didn't trade Freeman/Julio/Miller, but not saying I would be upset if we DID trade one or more of them. Attach Maybin to one of them and get a nice haul of minor league hitters.. Simmons is about the only one I wouldn't want to trade. His Defense is insane, his contract is friendly through the life of it, and I still think he gets better as a hitter. I am willing to be bad again next year if we continue to build the farm to an elite level.
 
The deeper we get in this rebuild/retool or whatever, the more I am in on trading bigger names.. Not saying I would be upset if we didn't trade Freeman/Julio/Miller, but not saying I would be upset if we DID trade one or more of them. Attach Maybin to one of them and get a nice haul of minor league hitters.. Simmons is about the only one I wouldn't want to trade. His Defense is insane, his contract is friendly through the life of it, and I still think he gets better as a hitter. I am willing to be bad again next year if we continue to build the farm to an elite level.

I agree. I certainly DON'T advocate a fire sale which is the ejection of expensive talent in effort to save money. Instead, I refer to it as churning the talent and the money. If you can trade Freeman, Maybin, Miller, Teheran, Markakis for good, young, controllable near ready ML talent where you are addressing needs that can't be addressed internally (OF, 3B, C) or easily bought through FA and THEN turn around and bring in FA talent using the money saved from the trades, then that is the most effective way to rebuild.

It does require patience and it does require that you can trust your scouts to target the right prospects coming back. But, there is a certain risk in prospects no matter what you do which is why you want both quantity as well as quality.

The idea of using existing minor league talent to trade for established ML players is inefficient and should generally only be done to bring in the final pieces of a real contender. Guys like Lucroy might make a lot of sense for a team that believes it has real chances in 2016 but his age and contract says that he is a short term solution at best, not what a rebuild needs.
 
The idea of using existing minor league talent to trade for established ML players is inefficient and should generally only be done to bring in the final pieces of a real contender.

I agree. And yet your strategy seems to be based on the idea that a team like Cleveland is going to do that. Occasionally you get lucky and have a deal like the Kimbrel trade last year. If you can do it you should. But as a repeatable strategy I'm not so sure.
 
I agree. And yet your strategy seems to be based on the idea that a team like Cleveland is going to do that. Occasionally you get lucky and have a deal like the Kimbrel trade last year. If you can do it you should. But as a repeatable strategy I'm not so sure.

Cleveland IS close to being a real contender IF they can address a few holes which Freeman and Maybin certainly would do. Also, Freeman is different from your typical player that a team trades prospects for because he is: 1. a demonstrated consistently good player. 2. Still young 3. Signed long term to a very favorable contract given his production and expected future production.

Those qualities are what makes it a difficult decision for the Braves to do but it also sets his value as a trade piece. I know there are those who will say, why not just keep him? The reason is that the team needs a lot of talent moving forward, specifically bats and there are few options available that are good long term options via FA and NO OPTIONS available that fit that bill through trade.

When you trade I think you have to look for need by the other team and then fit then return. Outside of a team making a push to compete it could also be with a team that has some local conditions that forces it to acquire veterans through trade as opposed to FA signings. This could be financial (Oakland), environmental (Colorado) or location (Toronto).

Colorado certainly needs pitching and has very bad luck developing their own and has absolutely no luck in getting FA pitching there. Because of that, I could see a Miller (who has three years of control left) to Colorado for a package of McMahon, Dahl and maybe Forest Wall or C Dom Nunez. They could afford to part with ALL those players since they have current young players in place at the ML level at those positions. What they don't have enough of and can't get in any other way is good SP.
 
The latest from Bowman suggests that putting Olivera in LF has gone from being Plan B to being Plan A.

As I reported last week, Olivera will play both left field and third base as he spends the next few weeks playing in Puerto Rico. But there is no doubt that the Braves are hoping that he proves comfortable enough in left field to give them the confidence that he can fill that position at the start of next season.

http://m.braves.mlb.com/news/article/156463260/what-position-will-hector-olivera-play

Also, here are the best available 3B free agents . . . all two of them. I've included contract guesstimates from the just-released Fangraph's Contract Crowdsourcing project:

David Freese (33): 2 yr / $18m
Juan Uribe (37): 2 yr / $16m

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-crowd-the-top-82-free-agents/
 
Maybe we can flip Bourn and Swisher back to the Indians for a 3rd baseman. I believe they have one to spare.
 
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