Viz and Teheran listed as top trade candidates

[nsacpi]

who is worth buying nxt yr? One of the many 30+ ok catchers, Freese, and Prado? Huge risk to to put big money into Chapman?

My preferred option at catcher is Castro. There are a couple other options on the FA market and some trade options will likely be available as well.

At third, Prado would be my first choice. Others on the FA market include Desmond, Turner, Freese, Walker (who has mainly played second but could probably play third). Trade options at third should be available as well.

I think we'll go for an established reliever either to close if we trade Viz or pitch the eighth. It won't be someone very expensive like Chapman.

All told I think we'll spend 30-35M on those three areas and keep about 10M available for late spring training and mid-season moves.

 

[striker42]

I just can't see any situation where a team is going to get Teheran without pay through the nose for him. People can cite Wren getting guys without giving up top prospects but that doesn't really apply much here.

Wren often targeted guys who were getting too expensive for their team or close to free agency. Guys like Uggla and Justin Upton. That gives you a little extra leverage in that the other team is motivated to trade that player. That's not the case here. There is absolutely no reason for us to trade Julio. The only reason will be that some team is offering us a package we can't refuse.

The front office is playing this right. This isn't a situation where you get offers for Julio and pick the best. The front office is taking a default position that Julio is staying in Atlanta. If a package of players is offered that improves our team moving forward, you take it. If not, we keep him.

 

[Enscheff]

who is worth buying nxt yr? One of the many 30+ ok catchers, Freese, and Prado? Huge risk to to put big money into Chapman?

If were running the ship, and I was trying to compete next year, I would make the following additions (with estimated contract values):

C - Castro 3/30 (career .761 OPS vs RHers, excellent platoon partner with Flowers)

3B - Prado 3/30 or Freese 2/15

LF - Cespedes 5/110 or Desmond 4/75

Maybe Ces and Desmond for LF and 3B if the money is there, but it probably won't be

Trade for Moore/Smyly from the Rays to fill out the rotation. Move Jenkins and ManBan to the BP permanently.

 

[Chico]

who is worth buying nxt yr? One of the many 30+ ok catchers, Freese, and Prado? Huge risk to to put big money into Chapman?

We will most definitely spend some money this offseason. We've spent the last 2 years building the foundation, This offseason will be "spackle and paint" for the casual fans who want to come out to the game and see a "name" player. That is after all how they're going to make their money. We're going to have anywhere from 50-75 million to spend next offseason depending on if Markakis, Julio, and Arodys are traded as I expect they will be. Ender and Paco Rodriguez would be the only arbitration eligible players receiving raises.

I'm not sure why we're discussing Wren so much. Dombrowski is in charge and he traded 2 top 50 prospects, plus two mid-level pitching prospects for 3 years of Kimbrel.

 

[Chico]

If were running the ship, and I was trying to compete next year, I would make the following additions (with estimated contract values):

C - Castro 3/30 (career .761 OPS vs RHers, excellent platoon partner with Flowers)
3B - Prado 3/30 or Freese 2/15
LF - Cespedes 5/110 or Desmond 4/75
Maybe Ces and Desmond for LF and 3B if the money is there, but it probably won't be

Trade for Moore/Smyly from the Rays to fill out the rotation. Move Jenkins and ManBan to the BP permanently.

If I had to bet on it I'd say Prado and Cespedes are pretty good bets. If we're going to have two rookies up the middle Prado's leadership on the infield will be important. There's a good chance Cespedes will not be worth the contract in his final year or two, but the team would make their money back off of his marketability and importance of balancing the lineup the first few years that it would not matter.

 

[nsacpi]

Don't want to be paying Cespedes 20M+ into his ages 34 and 35 season. At about that time (the 2020-2021 seasons), some of our top young players (Swanson, Albies, Wisler, Smith, Acuna, Soroka, Allard and others) will likely be making their first big push for a championship and I'd rather have the flexibility to complement them as necessary. The other consideration is that some of those same players will have entered their arb years and start to get more expensive. So I'd rather not commit that 20M+ to a player who by that time might be turning into another Dan Uggla.

 

[Enscheff]

Don't want to be paying Cespedes 20M+ into his ages 34 and 35 season. At about that time (the 2020-2021 seasons), some of our top young players (Swanson, Albies, Wisler, Smith, Acuna, Soroka, Allard and others) will likely be making their first big push for a championship and I'd rather have the flexibility to complement them as necessary. The other consideration is that some of those same players will have entered their arb years and start to get more expensive. So I'd rather not commit that 20M+ to a player who by that time might be turning into another Dan Uggla.

Comparing Ces to Uggla has to be one of the most unfair players comps I've seen. By all accounts and available statistics, Ces is twice the athlete Uggla was. He also has a career OPS+ that is almost as good as Uggla's best 2 single season OPS+. Cespedes is quite literally twice the player Uggla ever was.

Yes, Ces will likely decline and be unworthy of $20M the last 1-2 years of his deal, but comparing him to Dan Uggla?

Come on man, seriously...

 

[nsacpi]

Comparing Ces to Uggla has to be one of the most unfair players comps I've seen. By all accounts and available statistics, Ces is twice the athlete Uggla was. He also has a career OPS+ that is almost as good as Uggla's best 2 single season OPS+. Cespedes is quite literally twice the player Uggla ever was.

Yes, Ces will likely decline and be unworthy of $20M the last 1-2 years of his deal, but comparing him to Dan Uggla?

Come on man, seriously...

Twice the player, twice as far to drop. Although you are correct that athletic players usually age better. Not always. See Andruw Jones. Is that a less "unfair" comparison?

 

[Enscheff]

Twice the player, twice as far to drop. Although you are correct that athletic players usually age better. Not always (see Andruw Jones).

Andruw was one of the laziest MLB players I have ever read about. He is clearly the exception to how athletic players typically age. I'm quite certain you fully understand Andruw's aging curve was highly irregular for an athletic player, just like I'm certain you know Uggla was an equally bad comp for Cespedes.

I think we can all agree that last year's 6 WAR was Cespedes' career year at age 29. He posted 4 WAR at age 28 and 26, and is on pace for 4 WAR this season, so I think it's safe to say he is a 4 WAR guy at his peak. Assuming the typical aging curve for athletic position players, he will likely post between 12-17 WAR over the next 5 years (depending on when his decline starts), which would be worth between $96M-$136M.

Giving Cespedes $100M+ is a solid move, especially when you consider it signals to the fans that the rebuild is over. Cespedes would be to the Braves what Werth was to the Nationals.

 

[Chico]

Don't want to be paying Cespedes 20M+ into his ages 34 and 35 season. At about that time (the 2020-2021 seasons), some of our top young players (Swanson, Albies, Wisler, Smith, Acuna, Soroka, Allard and others) will likely be making their first big push for a championship and I'd rather have the flexibility to complement them as necessary. The other consideration is that some of those same players will have entered their arb years and start to get more expensive. So I'd rather not commit that 20M+ to a player who by that time might be turning into another Dan Uggla.

None of those players will be expensive by then and Wisler could just be flipped if he is as we should have the conga line of pitchers coming up. I do think he'd be overpaid the last couple of seasons, but the idea for Liberty and the Braves is to make a ROI now and the only way to do that is to sell tickets. Fans likes HR's and we'll need some of that going in to the new ballpark. If he has 3 good seasons he'd have paid for his entire contract via the revenue gained at the complex.

 

[Russ2dollas]

I think Cespedes or Desmond makes a lot of sense....IF they are not going to cause us to lose a top 10 second round pick.

In general I like the idea of Desmond and Prado b/c both can play a lot of spots. Could allow you some line up flexibility and maybe play prado at 2b to keep albies service time down.

I just assume both guys will get a QO and we won't go there.

I like Castro.

I know we'll spend some money, but I don't see a lot of needle movers.

Ideally I'd overpay for next year if we could get some team friendly team options on the back end. We have so much money next year go ahead a pay so you have flexibility and trade chips later. If you are willing to give Prado 3/30 why not give him 20, 5 and 5? Desmond for 4/75, go 25, 20, 15, 15.

I still think we'll look for a trade for a guy like Wil Meyers over a signing and giving up picks.

 

[nsacpi]

Andruw was one of the laziest MLB players I have ever read about. He is clearly the exception to how athletic players typically age.

I think we can all agree that last year's 6 WAR was Cespedes' career year at age 29. He posted 4 WAR at age 28 and 26, and is on pace for 4 WAR this season, so I think it's safe to say he is a 4 WAR guy at his peak. Assuming the typical aging curve for athletic position players, he will likely post between 12-17 WAR over the next 5 years (depending on when his decline starts), which would be worth between $96M-$136M.

Giving Cespedes $100M+ is a solid move, especially when you consider it signals to the fans that the rebuild is over. Cespedes would be to the Braves what Werth was to the Nationals.

Kemp, Crawford and Ellsbury are additional fairly athletic players who declined rapidly in their early 30s. Maybe they were lazy too. It is true they suffered injuries, but that is part of the game. And in any case, I believe the injuries they suffered were for the most part (a possible exception being Kemp's shoulder injury) of the variety that would affect their defense more than their hitting.

 

[Enscheff]

Kemp, Crawford and Ellsbury are additional fairly athletic players who declined rapidly in their early 30s. Maybe they were lazy too. It is true they suffered injuries, but that is part of the game. And in any case, I believe the injuries they suffered were for the most part (a possible exception being Kemp's shoulder injury) of the variety that would affect their defense more than their hitting.

Shall I come up with 3 athletic players in their 30s that aged as expected? Then come up with 3 athletic players who aged better than expected?

You know just as well as I do that the expected aging curve for Cespedes makes him likely to post 12-17 WAR over the next 5 years. And you also know the value of those projected wins is over $100M.

Your point about not wanting to pay for wins in 2017, and instead would rather pay for wins in 2020 is a valid point. Some contrived argument about Ces not aging well is something I would expect to read from some of the other lesser posters.

 

[weso1]

Of all the attainable OF RH sluggers, I am still most interested in Soler. Cheap, the bat speed is real and still reasonable expectation of ability to hit at the MLB level.

 

[Enscheff]

I still think we'll look for a trade for a guy like Wil Meyers over a signing and giving up picks.

Never understood this line of thinking. Why is it OK to trade prospects for Wil Meyer, but not OK to trade a draft pick, who will become a prospect, for Cespedes or Desmond? Obviously the cost of losing the pick has to be factored into a Ces or Desmond contract valuation (if the draft pick penalty even exists under the new CBA), but draft picks are equally valuable as current prospects.

 

[Tapate50]

Of all the attainable OF RH sluggers, I am still most interested in Soler. Cheap, the bat speed is real and still reasonable expectation of ability to hit at the MLB level.

I think Ian Happ fits our timeline pretty well. Not sure where he projects or if he is expected to finish with more power, but playing very well at AA

 

[weso1]

I think Ian Happ fits our timeline the best.

Bring me young Ian Happ.

 

[yeezus]

I think Ian Happ fits our timeline pretty well. Not sure where he projects or if he is expected to finish with more power, but playing very well at AA

I'm pretty torn on Happ. He started great at high-A, then slumped pretty hard and was striking out way too much for a college player in high-A. however, he turned it around really nicely before his promotion and has been raking in the SSS at AA. I would certainly take him, though. Not sure at what cost.

 

[Carp]

who is worth buying nxt yr? One of the many 30+ ok catchers, Freese, and Prado? Huge risk to to put big money into Chapman?

Justin Turner for one. He has some injury concerns, but he's been a 4 WAR for the last 2 years and is well on his way to another 4 WAR season this year. And he plays a position of need.

Josh Reddick, Cespedes, Ian Desmond, Bautista... lots of pretty good bats available actually, and nearly all of the quality hitters play a position of need for us.

 

[Chico]

Justin Turner for one. He has some injury concerns, but he's been a 4 WAR for the last 2 years and is well on his way to another 4 WAR season this year. And he plays a position of need.

Josh Reddick, Cespedes, Ian Desmond, Bautista... lots of pretty good bats available actually, and nearly all of the quality hitters play a position of need for us.

I think Reddick makes a lot of sense as he's probably going to be traded and not cost a pick.