Notes from today's AskCoppy event

[yeezus]

WAR is horrible at player evaluation yet the team with the highest WAR has the best record. No way it works.

Couple of things:

1). First and foremost, I LIKE WAR AND USE IT FREQUENTLY
2). One can think WAR works well when looking at teams overall but is less accurate on a player-by player basis.
3). There are plenty of examples of teams having lower/higher WAR than their records suggest.

Just saying, your statement doesn't really prove anything.

 

[chop2chip]

That's' why we traded away our two highest WAR players I guess. It's a great tool in grading a player's talents that's it. Many big home run hitters have terrible WARs, and many average offensive players have good WARs. Yet....home run hitters are in high demand. I'll be the first to say, I thought big ole Kemp would make very little difference. If you watch the games...it's really an impossible argument to say he hasn't. He has made a huge impact on the offense and has produced. Yes, I gulp every time a ball is hit out there...he is UGLY. He still (with very little style), makes the play on most balls hit his way. I would rather have Kemp making $30 mil the next THREE years hitting 30+ HR & 100+ RBI a year than Heyward making $24 mil a YEAR hitting 10 HR & 50 RBI with a nice big WAR. How about the GREAT WAR stud Andrelton Simmons for 10 mil a YEAR hitting 3 HR & 36 whooping RBI this year. If you want to argue that we took on Kemp to cover a mistake...I give you that no problem. This WAR shamokery crap has to end as the end all be all player measurement tool. It's only one of MANY ways to grade a player.

I'll never understand why this country hates math so much.

 

[chop2chip]

Couple of things:

1). First and foremost, I LIKE WAR AND USE IT FREQUENTLY
2). One can think WAR works well when looking at teams overall but is less accurate on a player-by player basis.
3). There are plenty of examples of teams having lower/higher WAR than their records suggest.

Just saying, your statement doesn't really prove anything.

There's a nuanced way to discuss the shortcomings of WAR and then there is TheBravos way of discussing WAR.

 

[yeezus]

There's a nuanced way to discuss the shortcomings of WAR and then there is TheBravos way of discussing WAR.

Won't disagree with that in the least.

 

[TheBravos]

Oh good Lord...I don't hate WAR and think it is great tool. One tool...of many. Some guys on here act like its the only way to evaluate a player...it's not. That is all. You would think this is a forum full of pro scouts and GM's the way major confidence and condescending views are delivered. We are all amateur fans...sorry to burst your "I work at the Piggly Wiggly but I still know more than most pro scouts) bubble. All I can tell you is that the GM of YOUR team (who does this for a living), doesn't think that highly of WAR or he would have NEVER traded Simmons who was young and signed long term on a reasonable contract. The End...I shall speak of it no more.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

WAR is horrible at player evaluation yet the team with the highest WAR has the best record. No way it works.

don't cherry pick.. the Giants have the 3rd best team WAR.. The twinkies are sitting at #20 ahead of the Yankees and just behind the Tigers. No one said War is completely useless... just there is a high margin for error...

 

[clvclv]

A noodle arm right fielder with no range hurts a team more than you think.

Little reason to pair him with a light-hitting 3B on a bad contract though.

Don't get me wrong, I love Prado as much as anybody. The problem is, the Marlins want him back and don't have any better options. Martin would add another 10 HR bat at a corner position. He just doesn't make sense IMO. Why guarantee Martin 3-4 years when you've got Garcia and Ruiz for $10-$12 million a year less who can be cast aside at any point if Riley happens to get on the fast track?

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Little reason to pair him with a light-hitting 3B on a bad contract though.

Don't get me wrong, I love Prado as much as anybody. The problem is, the Marlins want him back and don't have any better options. Martin would add another 10 HR bat at a corner position. He just doesn't make sense IMO. Why guarantee Martin 3-4 years when you've got Garcia and Ruiz for $10-$12 million a year less who can be cast aside at any point if Riley happens to get on the fast track?

I have said all along.. I would not be upset if we brought Prado back. He is super sub anyway and not just a 3B. But I would be fine using that 10 -15 million else where. I am meh on the whole Prado thing.

 

[chop2chip]

Oh good Lord...I don't hate WAR and think it is great tool. One tool...of many. Some guys on here act like its the only way to evaluate a player...it's not. That is all. You would think this is a forum full of pro scouts and GM's the way major confidence and condescending views are delivered. We are all amateur fans...sorry to burst your "I work at the Piggly Wiggly but I still know more than most pro scouts) bubble. All I can tell you is that the GM of YOUR team (who does this for a living), doesn't think that highly of WAR or he would have NEVER traded Simmons who was young and signed long term on a reasonable contract. The End...I shall speak of it no more.

I hope you didn't break your leg on the dismount

 

[thewupk]

don't cherry pick.. the Giants have the 3rd best team WAR.. The twinkies are sitting at #20 ahead of the Yankees and just behind the Tigers. No one said War is completely useless... just there is a high margin for error...

WAR correlates highly to run differential. Yes there are teams like the Rangers this year who are having a historic run in 1 run games so their record is vastly superior to what their run differential says it should be. Tell me if you would rather try to be that team or be the team who vastly outscores their opponent.

 

[TheBravos]

I hope you didn't break your leg on the dismount

Twisted an ankle, but ok outside of that.

 

[thewupk]

Couple of things:

1). First and foremost, I LIKE WAR AND USE IT FREQUENTLY
2). One can think WAR works well when looking at teams overall but is less accurate on a player-by player basis.
3). There are plenty of examples of teams having lower/higher WAR than their records suggest.

Just saying, your statement doesn't really prove anything.

But team WAR is made up of the individual parts. And yes there are plenty of teams with a higher WAR than their record suggests. Just like run differential records aren't 100% accurate neither is WAR. But WAR records and run differential records correlate highly together. Meaning the more team WAR you have (thus more players with a high WAR) the more you will be outscoring your opponent. Isn't that all you can ask out of your team? To score more runs than you give up? Generally if you do that that consistently you are going to be in a good spot.

 

[Knucksie]

Some guys on here act like its the only way to evaluate a player...it's not.

Back during the Scout days, OBP and walkes were in vogue because of Billy Beane. Then OPS was the flavor of the month. Now it just happens to be WAR. The joke is that none of them can explain the difference among the different versions. It's just seen as "cool" to anonymously post on a few different message boards and comments sections and posture. It compensates for the lack of an offline social life.

 

[thewupk]

Back during the Scout days, OBP and walkes were in vogue because of Billy Beane. Then OPS was the flavor of the month. Now it just happens to be WAR. The joke is that none of them can explain the difference among the different versions. It's just seen as "cool" to anonymously post on a few different message boards and comments sections and posture. It compensates for the lack of an offline social life.

Is that a joke you tell yourself at night while holding your scouts honor book while touching yourself?

 

[GovClintonTyree]

This is getting good. Need popcorn.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

Oh good Lord...I don't hate WAR and think it is great tool. One tool...of many. Some guys on here act like its the only way to evaluate a player...it's not. That is all. You would think this is a forum full of pro scouts and GM's the way major confidence and condescending views are delivered. We are all amateur fans...sorry to burst your "I work at the Piggly Wiggly but I still know more than most pro scouts) bubble. All I can tell you is that the GM of YOUR team (who does this for a living), doesn't think that highly of WAR or he would have NEVER traded Simmons who was young and signed long term on a reasonable contract. The End...I shall speak of it no more.

I hear you, Bravos. But dissent is frowned upon on this issue.

It's going to be funny ten years from now when the defensive side of WAR is better distilled and tamped down so that the attempt to capture RAR on defense is more precise and less impactful to the overall statistic, and folks will say, "of course. It's always been that way."

I think Kemp has been extraordinarily impactful on this ballclub. He's recovered his selectivity, which makes the oWAR snap into line pretty well. But he doesn't take good routes and dropped a fly ball, so his dWAR is atrocious. I just ignore that side, and I'm happier.

He makes the plays a LF needs to make and not much more. You might discount his oWAR a little for his wobbly defense, but like you, that means jack **** to me when the guy is raking in the middle of the lineup, particularly when he's taking his walks.

Heyward's been absolute **** all season and has a higher WAR than Kemp because of the defense component and that is ridiculous. And there are too many of those anomalies for me to take it seriously.

 

[Knucksie]

Is that a joke you tell yourself at night while holding your scouts honor book while touching yourself?

Also back during the Scout days, when everyone was hoping for better days ahead from Marte, I made the comment about some so-called "stathead" proclaiming that we were in for a "decade of Gold Gloves with Mike Schmidt power." Please note that I would have LOVED for this to have happened, but the comment was directed at nobody in particular. In fact, it would have been extemely difficult to recall who even made the comment. The very next day, somebody with intials PC expressed complete hurt, anger and disgust.

The moral of the story is that it's very telling that you would be the one to respond to another idle comment, which was directed at nobody in particular.

 

[thewupk]

Also back during the Scout days, when everyone was hoping for better days ahead from Marte, I made the comment about some so-called "stathead" proclaiming that we were in for a "decade of Gold Gloves with Mike Schmidt power." Please note that I would have LOVED for this to have happened, but the comment was directed at nobody in particular. In fact, it would have been extemely difficult to recall who even made the comment. The very next day, somebody with intials PC expressed complete hurt, anger and disgust.

The moral of the story is that it's very telling that you would be the one to respond to another idle comment, which was directed at nobody in particular.

So you don't deny touching yourself while holding that book?

 

[GovClintonTyree]

So you don't deny touching yourself while holding that book?

Hehehehe

 

[thewupk]

I hear you, Bravos. But dissent is frowned upon on this issue.

It's going to be funny ten years from now when the defensive side of WAR is better distilled and tamped down so that the attempt to capture RAR on defense is more precise and less impactful to the overall statistic, and folks will say, "of course. It's always been that way."

I think Kemp has been extraordinarily impactful on this ballclub. He's recovered his selectivity, which makes the oWAR snap into line pretty well. But he doesn't take good routes and dropped a fly ball, so his dWAR is atrocious. I just ignore that side, and I'm happier.

He makes the plays a LF needs to make and not much more. You might discount his oWAR a little for his wobbly defense, but like you, that means jack **** to me when the guy is raking in the middle of the lineup, particularly when he's taking his walks.

I think you will find most statheads are open to change more so than those that don't necessarily care about advanced stats. And you can ignore his bad defense all you want. Still doesn't mean it's not there and not costing the team runs. But if it makes you happier to ignore than then by all means go for it.