HRC

bravesnumberone said:
Rasmussen has Trump back ahead now fwiw. I keep thinking it will depend on how the church crowd votes and if they show up.
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I read Rasmussen daily, but one has to remember they are a conservative outfit and their polls tend to tip that way. That said, I think this thing is still close and it's going to end up being decided in the same swing states (Ohio and Florida) as always.
 
57Brave said:
But that was when he was running against "Lil Marco" and "Lyin' Ted"
Neither of which did any oppo or stood up to Trump.

If anything post (R) convention we've learned Trump can't take a punch

Leaving me and 3/4 of the country wondering why these things are coming out now rather than Dec - Jan or Feb
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He out-performed polls to get to 30% in some places. He has to hit the high-40s% with a wider electorate. Not saying it can't be done, but one has to remember that primary turnout is low compared to the general election. As I said in my post above, that may not mean anything in the presidential race. Trump is going to bring a number of people who have been sporadic voters in the past into the system. Those voters are hard to track.

As per why things are coming out now, the Republicans wanted to ride the anger that was fueling Trump while not having Trump win the nomination. Trump, for whatever foibles he has, has great instincts. Once Jeb went down, he had no problem picking off the relative political dwarves that remained.
 
The ( D) strategy has been to create a Trump ceiling. It appears effective.

My reading shows no signs hIm getting above 45.

With HRC probability numbers mid to high 80's , can't see how he makes up that much ground.

As far as Rassmussen, didn't they have Romney by 6 or something ridiculous ?
 
50PoundHead said:
He out-performed polls to get to 30% in some places. He has to hit the high-40s% with a wider electorate. Not saying it can't be done, but one has to remember that primary turnout is low compared to the general election. As I said in my post above, that may not mean anything in the presidential race. Trump is going to bring a number of people who have been sporadic voters in the past into the system. Those voters are hard to track.

As per why things are coming out now, the Republicans wanted to ride the anger that was fueling Trump while not having Trump win the nomination. Trump, for whatever foibles he has, has great instincts. Once Jeb went down, he had no problem picking off the relative political dwarves that remained.
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My take is Trump has great instincts as long as he doesn't have to play defense.

Say what you will about HRC, she is not easily thrown off her game
 
57Brave said:
The ( D) strategy has been to create a Trump ceiling. It appears effective.
My reading shows no signs hIm getting above 45.
With HRC probability numbers mid to high 80's , can't see how he makes up that much ground.

As far as Rassmussen, didn't they have Romney by 6 or something ridiculous ?
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It tends to swing back and forth. Clinton was up 7 the other day in the immediate aftermath of the debate, though that also included pre-debate polling.

It's hard to find a way he can get to 270, which is what matters.

We know he has to win all of Romney's states to be at 206. Then he has to get Ohio and Florida to get to 253. He's been ahead in Iowa so that's 259. Pennsylvania seems out of the question now, as does Wisconsin. He really need Ryan to boost him up there. So if Virginia and Colorado are also likely Clinton (I'm not entirely convinced on Virginia), then Trump needs to win Nevada and New Hampshire to get to 269 and grab that proportional vote in Maine to reach 270.

How great would that be if the proportional vote in Maine (or Nebraska for that matter) decided the race? There would be endless bitching from the losing side.
 
bravesnumberone said:
It tends to swing back and forth. Clinton was up 7 the other day in the immediate aftermath of the debate, though that also included pre-debate polling.

It's hard to find a way he can get to 270, which is what matters.

We know he has to win all of Romney's states to be at 206. Then he has to get Ohio and Florida to get to 253. He's been ahead in Iowa so that's 259. Pennsylvania seems out of the question now, as does Wisconsin. He really need Ryan to boost him up there. So if Virginia and Colorado are also likely Clinton (I'm not entirely convinced on Virginia), then Trump needs to win Nevada and New Hampshire to get to 269 and grab that proportional vote in Maine to reach 270.

How great would that be if the proportional vote in Maine (or Nebraska for that matter) decided the race? There would be endless bitching from the losing side.
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I think McMullin in Utah could throw a wrench into things as well. One of the things that may turn out to be ironic is that the Republican vote suppression machine which tries to thwart things like same day voter registration could backfire on them here, as a lot of Trump supporters may not get to vote when the get to the polls.

I do follow Rasmussen and some of their work is valuable. But what I've seen from them over the years is that they are all about the horse race aspect of things up until the last few days, when they seem to side up to the winner. They did get Obama/McCain right on the money and were one of the few polling outfits to be that close.
 
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50PoundHead said:
I think McMullin in Utah could throw a wrench into things as well. One of the things that may turn out to be ironic is that the Republican vote suppression machine which tries to thwart things like same day voter registration could backfire on them here, as a lot of Trump supporters may not get to vote when the get to the polls.

I do follow Rasmussen and some of their work is valuable. But what I've seen from them over the years is that they are all about the horse race aspect of things up until the last few days, when they seem to side up to the winner. They did get Obama/McCain right on the money and were one of the few polling outfits to be that close.
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Yeah, seems like Trump could benefit strongly from "busing" people to the polls or transporting them via church vans on Election Day if that option was available.
 
VA is changing for the better in my opinion. There is more tolerance and more open minded folks. Its more of a live and let live thing. The Repubs doomed their party the minute that they tied their wagon to the religious zelots like Jerry Falwell and such. Its funny that Barry Goldwater predicted this very outcome when the preachers and politics got in cahoots in the '80s. They have absolutely made themselves into this mess and its only going to get worse for them because the next generation will be even more open to the democratic philosophy than the majority is now. We are getting ready to elect our 3rd Democrat in the last 24 years with the stolen 2000 election and the weak candidate that was Kerry in 2004 that should jolt the right into two realizations. First never sign stupid pledges and if a candidate refuses vetting they need to run. Second, this is not a conservative country anymore and the sooner they figure that out the better they will be. They can take their time as far as I am concerned.
 
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