rico43
<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
Any Cub who is on the team that wins the series will have a special Touched by God surcharge.
Tigers possibly pushing to trade Upton
- Thread starter bravesfanforlife88
- Start date
Any Cub who is on the team that wins the series will have a special Touched by God surcharge.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
To me its close to a wash in terms of trade value. That's why I suggested it. I think we'd come out slightly ahead, but not much.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
They aren't playing him. I know what you're saying. If they lose they'll want a scape goat.
I'm not a huge heyward guy and the contract is large. But he's someone that might be had in a salary dump and still has upside.
They're playing him most of the time, they just didn't against Kershaw. He'll play against the Indians starters since they throw right-handed.
Assuming Chicago would eat some of the salary, I agree it'd be smart to buy low on him since there's a decent chance he rebounds next year, but he has a full no-trade clause and I doubt he wants to return to Atlanta.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
Yeah, no way. But, I do look into trading for JUP. Someone mentioned it earlier, but I'd be all about a large-scale trade for Upton and Verlander.
Inciarte CF
Swanson SS
Freeman 1B
JUP LF
Kemp RF
Flowers/McCann/Ramos? Whoever C
Ruiz/Garcia 3B
Verlander RHP
Albies 2B
Verlander, Teheran, Folty, Wisler, Newcomb.
Upton's BB rate is dropping while his K rate is climbing. That has meant that his BA and OBP are dropping while his pop remains about the same. No thanks. I don't want any part of that, especially since his defense is now consistently mediocre to bad.
I'd much rather just run Mallex out there.
I'd much rather just run Mallex out there.
Nerfherders
Well-known member
No to Upton. Too many ice-cold streaks in his game. And they get longer every season.
Verlander makes some sense as a trade target, but he just put up a 6+ WAR season. His "terrible" seasons were 1 and 2 WAR, and he is still a 200+ inning workhorse. He will not come cheap in terms of prospects, so I seriously doubt the Braves part with the talent required to acquire him.
JUp makes zero sense as a trade target to anyone who has been paying attention to the Braves over the last 3 years.
JUp makes zero sense as a trade target to anyone who has been paying attention to the Braves over the last 3 years.
Not to mention that we're committed to Kemp for a shorter period in the event J-Up chooses NOT to opt out - then we'd get the inevitable bad years at the end.
Also, depending on the development of Ruiz, Peterson, Demeritte, Riley, Maitan, and several others we're potentially going to have several other 3B/corner OF options knocking on the door before Kemp's deal is even up - they can't all play 3B, and I'm pretty sure 1B, 2B, and SS are spoken for for the foreseeable future. If they do target a 3B "answer" (that's not in the system) this winter or next, there could be quite a few options to replace Kemp for less than $20 million per.
The real wildcard in all this (to me) is Maitan. If he's really as good as advertised and rockets through the system like some of the recent international signings (Moncada, etc.), he's probably got plenty of arm to step in for Markakis when his deal ends - assuming 3B is being handled capably. If he becomes our version of Betts or Moncada, that leaves a lot of guys battling for ABs at 3B and LF within a couple years.
(For those slobbering all over themselves waiting in the weeds to pounce - yes those are big IFs, but they're also possibilities. Since Callis already has him potentially becoming a Top 10 prospect by the end of next season, there's really no reason he can't be at least discussed in future plans.)
Why?
the only reason a team should have to trade for Verlander is if he is the missing piece to compete for a championship next year. Sorry to tell you the Braves are not there yet. I still do not see this team as a real threat till 2019 at the earliest. After that the rest of the NL better watch out.
Yeah, his 2 hot months are usually staggered too.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
I agree. But, pretending to compete hurts your ability to maximize talent acquisition for when you really should be able to compete. I'm OK with competing in 2017 if it happens organically without diminishing a maximum effort to bring in young talent, but I don't think that's what we'll see. I think we will see some "play pretend" moves for the masses and some moves not done that should be also for the masses so the illusion of competitive baseball can be presented.
Will that have a long term negative effect? It's hard to say because you can't see the future. After all, what good is an early draft pick if the player chosen is a flop? What good is a 1 for 3 talent trade if the net value of the three never develops to be better than the net value of the 1?
But, I point to Chicago. The Cubs had been building in a reloading fashion under Hendry, essentially win the Division, be horrible for 2-3 years, win the Division, be horrible...never getting close to the big prize. So they brought in Epstein in late 2011 to rebuild and build for the long term. The Cubs finished 5th in their Division in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 then jumped to 3rd in 2015 and finished 1st and are on the edge of a WS Championship in 2016. AND, they are positioned to be good for a while. And it hasn't been by them simply spending their way there. They have made some good use of their cash adding Lester, Lackey and bringing back Hammel but have also made some dumb moves by splurging on Heyward.
The real core of their team came from some shrewd trades, excellent drafting (especially at the premium picks) and some hole filling FA signings. And it wasn't done overnight, was not a reload in any way. They took the team to the metal and built it back up over the span of about 5 years.
Too look at some of their moves:
Montero: before 2015 season in trade for Jeferson Mejia and Zach Goldy who have never been heard from again.
Rizzo: from SD for Kyung Min Na???, and Andrew Cashner
Zobrist, Fowler, Heyward: Added as FA entering 2016 because the core was in place and these FA were considered what was needed to finish the team.
Russell: came with McKinney and Straily for Hammel andSamardzija (they then re-signed Hammel).
Bryant: 1st Rd, 2nd pick, 2013
Baez: 1/9/2011
Schwarber: 1/4/2014
Almora: 1/6/2012
Soler: Int FA signing from Cuba 2012
Contreras: Int FA 2009
Ross: FA 2015
Lester: FA 2015
Hendricks: FA 2015
Arrieta: came with Strop in 2013 from Baltimore for Clevenger and Feldman
Lackey: FA 2016
Rondon: 2013 Rule 5 from Cleveland
Chapman: 2016 in season trade with Yanks
It took them a while, but they were patient and are now positioned well to be good for several more years
They've made some really good moves, but everyone's a little generous when they proclaim Theo and Jed as "miracle workers", and most act like they've made no mistakes. The only point I'm making is that to get to where they are today, Cubs' fans had to put up with losing 464 games between 2010 and 2014 - ~93 per season. Lots of people who are still Braves fans are already teetering as it is - as fickle as the Atlanta fanbase has typically been, I'm afraid a five year stretch like that would send attendance levels back to where they were in the 80s. It's far easier to be patient when it's been so long since you've been relevant - fans are much more willing to buy into "give us five more years to turn this thing around".
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
I don't get where your bolded response means anything in regards to what the Cubs did. It seems you are confused that I am saying that the Braves should have done what the Cubs did, when they did it. but that's not the case at all. My point was that the Cubs chose a path and stuck with it and did fairly well and after 5 years they are in the WS AND look poised to be back several more times. Have they made mistakes? Sure. To me, the biggest was the Heyward signing which appear to be a matter of luxury purchase - hey, we have the money, let's get Heyward, bring his value to RF and screw the Cards while we are at it. They would have been much better with Soler in RF all year on a cost per performance basis. But, that one bad move didn't send them back to the drawing board. They built a team that was talented AND deep because they didn't cut corners to get where they wanted to go. Even as a ML club and having shipped out some talent for what they considered the final piece in making them a WS contender in Chapman, they still have a relatively strong farm and have young talent all over the field at the ML level that will be under control for several years.
OTOH, Arizona tried to short circuit their rebuild and it failed miserably and now they are back at the drawing board. They went big for their ACE (probably OK) and traded for another arm with young talent that they REALLY couldn't afford to give up.
As for the Braves and their fans, I think it's more about the businesses and the funders of the new stadium being appeased. If the Braves get off to a slow start next year, attendance will fall. But the novelty of the new stadium will be it's own draw for a while. What will really be a disaster is if three years into the new stadium the Braves suddenly find themselves struggling for .500 with a projected future of another rebuild. That's the risk you take when you try to cut corners on a rebuild.
Not confused at all, and I'm not disagreeing with your point in the least - mainly just trying to point out the fact that EVERY rebuild/retool/whatever someone wants to call it is always entirely different and that you're right (IMO) about needing the commitment and discipline to stick with it "no matter what".
You'll never get an argument from me about Heyward being a luxury, I've been beating that drum since the day he was traded. He just happened to be one the Braves couldn't afford (and one the Cards chose not to). It still amazes me how many people around here want to spin that into being a "Heyward Hater" (depending on who makes that point). My only point about him has been that that's a *elluva lot of money to pay someone that doesn't bring a whole lot more to the table than other fourth OFs. Is he better on defense than a lot of those guys? Sure. But $150 million better?
The main point I was making about the picks was the philosophy at the time - I don't condemn Wren for his philosophy UNLESS he was told that the salary "cap" he was given was set in stone and non-negotiable. He did a great job of building a "contender" when he was here (and you could make the argument that neither the Uggla nor the Melvin signings were worse than the Cubs' Heyward signing). The thing is, if he was told that the money wasn't there to keep that contender in place beyond their contracts at the time, his draft strategy really was awful - even though the team never got high picks. They should've been looking for high-upside "replacements" rather than looking for players who might be bit players within a couple seasons.
JMO, but we're pretty much saying the same thing about Arizona's chasing an "Ace" - that's something the vast majority of teams have to do when they get their chance (no matter where their rebuild schedule stands). If you have the chance to go get a Lester/Greinke/whomever, you pretty much have to get them when circumstances allow. If the Braves could have landed Lester when he wasn't going to cost them a pick, they should have done everything they could to get him since those chances just don't come along very often. Just as you mention, the really bad move was giving up all that talent to land a #2 (and a not very proven one at that) - if adding Greinke while taking him away from the Dodgers wasn't going to get them past L. A., they probably weren't going to get past them anyway.
The differences in what we're saying (to me, anyway) are pretty minor. As a Cubs' fan, I'd have no problem with giving up Torres to get Chapman. Thing is, many folks around here go nuts when you talk about giving up high-level prospects to get that big piece (Teixeira deal, every time anyone's mentioned wanting to finally go get an "Ace" or big bat, etc.). I just think it's interesting to see people call that a "great move" when it hasn't paid off yet. If they happen to lose to Cleveland, there will be Cubs fans coming out of the woodwork to scream that they sure would have been better off if they'd kept Torres to use in a trade to replace Arrieta if he walks.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
I think we agree on just about everything.
I would say that what the Cubs did was wait on major FA signings (and expensive trades like Chapman) until there was no doubt that they were contenders. They knew they had the building blocks in place with young talent at the ML level in most places, and had ANOTHER wave very close in the minors, before they brought the checkbook out. When they brought out the checkbook, they did it with a vengeance. But, Epstein didn't come in late 2011 and immediately start throwing money around. He didn't in 2012 or 2013 either. It was before the 2015 season when they started spending the cash.
I would say that what the Cubs did was wait on major FA signings (and expensive trades like Chapman) until there was no doubt that they were contenders. They knew they had the building blocks in place with young talent at the ML level in most places, and had ANOTHER wave very close in the minors, before they brought the checkbook out. When they brought out the checkbook, they did it with a vengeance. But, Epstein didn't come in late 2011 and immediately start throwing money around. He didn't in 2012 or 2013 either. It was before the 2015 season when they started spending the cash.