Baseball America Top 100

[nsacpi]

For the record, here is BA's top 30 for Atlanta (it was made before the Gohara trade), with their value assigned in parentheses (some of them seem out of order, but that's due to a higher risk):

1. Dansby Swanson (65)
2. Ozzie Albies (65)
3. Kolby Allard (60)
4. Mike Soroka (60)
5. Ian Anderson (65)
6. Ronald Acuna (60)
7. Kevin Maitan (65)
8. Sean Newcomb (55)
9. Patrick Weigel (60)
10. Max Fried (55)
11. Austin Riley (55)
12. Touki Toussaint (60)
13. Christian Pache (55)
14. Lucas Sims (50)
15. Joey Wentz (55)
16. Dustin Peterson (50)
17. Kyle Muller (55)
18. AJ Minter (55)
19. Travis Demerit (50)
20. Rio Ruiz (45)
21. Braxton Davidson (50)
22. Serian Cruz (55)
23. Brett Cumberland (50)
24. Drew Harrington (50)
25. Bryce Wilson (55)
26. Abrahan Gutierrez (50)
27. Ray-Patrick Didder (45)
28. Luke Jackson (45)
29. Alex Jackson (50)
30. Lucas Herbert (50)

It looks like they probably have Gohara around 12 or so, so you can bump everyone else down accordingly.

The fact that we have a guy with a 55 value at 25, and that 29 and 30 have a 50 value, is utterly absurd. The Diamondbacks, for example, have 12 guys in the system with a value of 50 or better, and just 2 with a value of 55; none higher.

Yepez is the big omission from their top 30.

 

[CJ9]

Yepez is the big omission from their top 30.

Really? I don't think he'll be in our top 30 on any site this offseason.

 

[thewupk]

I wonder how many guys are in the next 25. BA seemed bullish and some and bearish on others. I dont get the Fried omission at all.

injury concerns are real

 

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

Really? I don't think he'll be in our top 30 on any site this offseason.

They still have Davidson on there, might take him off and put Yepez at 30. Guess you have to make a spot for Gohara too. Hm...

injury concerns are real

Tommy John's is a big deal, I guess.

 

[thethe]

injury concerns are real

So how do you explain Giolitos ranking the last few years? Not saying Fried should be a top 10 prospect here.

 

[nsacpi]

So how do you explain Giolitos ranking the last few years? Not saying Fried should be a top 10 prospect here.

some of it reflects the level they pitched at last year, how much they've pitched since TJ, and pedigree (draft position, industry assessment of talent and upside)...there are significant differences

 

[thethe]

some of it reflects the level they pitched at last year, how much they've pitched since TJ, and pedigree (draft position, industry assessment of talent and upside)...there are significant differences

Wasn't Fried considered in that stratosphere prior to his injury?

 

[nsacpi]

Wasn't Fried considered in that stratosphere prior to his injury?

go back and read the scouting reports from high school

 

[GovClintonTyree]

I read an interesting Albies comp from Eno Sarris at Fangraphs, who has liked Albies for a while. He said Elvis Andrus with a little more pop.

Maybe my expectations are too high, but I feel like I'd be disappointed if Albies had the same offensive impact as andrus.

Can someone explain to me why seven years of an average wRC+ of 83 ('09-15), with negative runs above average all but one year until last year - -47 runs, to be exact - results in Andrus having a substantially positive oWAR (+18, in fact) during that time? Each year is positive, which makes no sense to me.

I'm asking because I don't understand the WAR derivation, not to be berated or talked down to. Thanks.

P.S. I hope Albies isn't Andrus with more pop. Maybe that's similar to the Freeman=Grace lazy comparison I remember from years back.

 

[Enscheff]

Can someone explain to me why seven years of an average wRC+ of 83 ('09-15), with negative runs above average all but one year until last year - -47 runs, to be exact - results in Andrus having a substantially positive oWAR (+18, in fact) during that time? Each year is positive, which makes no sense to me.

I'm asking because I don't understand the WAR derivation, not to be berated or talked down to. Thanks.

P.S. I hope Albies isn't Andrus with more pop. Maybe that's similar to the Freeman=Grace lazy comparison I remember from years back.

Positional adjustments, described here:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_position.shtml

 

[Oklahomabrave]

Positional adjustments, described here:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_position.shtml

Is base running calculated into wRC? Thought that might account for the discrepancy.

 

[mqt]

I read an interesting Albies comp from Eno Sarris at Fangraphs, who has liked Albies for a while. He said Elvis Andrus with a little more pop.

Maybe my expectations are too high, but I feel like I'd be disappointed if Albies had the same offensive impact as andrus.

To be fair, peak Andrus with some more power is about a 5 win player. I'd be happy with that.

 

[CJ9]

To be fair, peak Andrus with some more power is about a 5 win player. I'd be happy with that.

Largely because of his defense though, no? I was talking only about offensive production.

 

[thewupk]

Can someone explain to me why seven years of an average wRC+ of 83 ('09-15), with negative runs above average all but one year until last year - -47 runs, to be exact - results in Andrus having a substantially positive oWAR (+18, in fact) during that time? Each year is positive, which makes no sense to me.

I'm asking because I don't understand the WAR derivation, not to be berated or talked down to. Thanks.

P.S. I hope Albies isn't Andrus with more pop. Maybe that's similar to the Freeman=Grace lazy comparison I remember from years back.

As mentioned baseball ref adds position adjustments to their oWAR. Personally I am not a fan of this. IMO offense is offense and should be judged equally regardless of what position you play. I like fangraphs way of adding in position adjustments along with their runs saved to see where they rank defensively and just having offense and base running combined.

Position + offense has its purpose but doesn't really tell us anything too meaningful.

 

[thewupk]

Largely because of his defense though, no? I was talking only about offensive production.

Yes. Elvis (outside of 2016) is a poor hitter. He got his value from defense and base running. I would hope Albies and Swanson can do a lot better in that department.

 

[thewupk]

Is base running calculated into wRC? Thought that might account for the discrepancy.

Older versions of the stat did but it has been separated in fangraphs version. There is a separate base running stat that includes steals and taking extra bases, etc.

 

[mqt]

Largely because of his defense though, no? I was talking only about offensive production.

A hypothetical peak Andrus with a some added pop is probably a pretty good hitter. He had a couple years as a league average hitter pretty much from speed alone. If you combine that kind of speed with some genuine gap power, the average likely goes up, slugging percentage goes up and we're looking at a solid bat. Combine that with what projects to be fantastic defense and base running skills, and you have an all-star.

 

[NYCBrave]

I read an interesting Albies comp from Eno Sarris at Fangraphs, who has liked Albies for a while. He said Elvis Andrus with a little more pop.

Maybe my expectations are too high, but I feel like I'd be disappointed if Albies had the same offensive impact as andrus.

I don't know about that comp. Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Albies put up way better numbers in the minors than Andrus did? They pretty much were at the same levels at the same age.

 

[mqt]

I don't know about that comp. Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Albies put up way better numbers in the minors than Andrus did? They pretty much were at the same levels at the same age.

I would agree that Andrus isn't a particularly compelling comp for Albies, even if I disagree as to the rosiness of that projection.

 

[striker42]

I would put a Luis Castillo comp on Albies. Maybe a bit less speed and a bit more power.