Official 2017 Trade Deadilne Thread

The Braves are finally at .500 late in the season, and there is buzz going among the casual fans about possible WC contention.

Nothing the Braves are going to get in return for any of the players they are willing to sell is worth more than that for a team coming out of a rebuild.

Stand pat, and maybe add a small piece to boost the MLB roster to show everyone they are "going for it". I have no idea where that piece would be added since the same casuals they are trying to appease with a WC chase also think the Freeman/Adams combo is good, and Kemp/Markakis combo in the corners is also good. Maybe a decent BP arm, just so they can say the Braves were "buyers" at the deadline?

If they have a catastrophic next 2 weeks they should flip to sellers, but we've been saying that all year, and here they are....at .500. Might as well take advantage of this good wave while they can.
 
thethe said:
What are you guys actually expecting for a return. The chance of getting a useful piece is extremely limited.
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This.

While I don't advocate buying, I'm not at the front of the line looking to sell of BP or Garcia either. Pretending that we are trying for the playoffs, for the ticket paying fan at least, probably has more long term value than whatever marginal prospect we may receive in a trade for a short term rental.
 
chop2chip said:
This.

While I don't advocate buying, I'm not at the front of the line looking to sell of BP or Garcia either. Pretending that we are trying for the playoffs, for the ticket paying fan at least, probably has more long term value than whatever marginal prospect we may receive in a trade for a short term rental.
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I don't feel I-Me is an actual contributor. Pitching is way over-valued right now and we could actually get something of interest for a I-Me + in a trade. I say trade him and start a rotating audition of Wisler/Blair/Meds/Albers... give it to the one that wants it bad enough..
 
chop2chip said:
This.

While I don't advocate buying, I'm not at the front of the line looking to sell of BP or Garcia either. Pretending that we are trying for the playoffs, for the ticket paying fan at least, probably has more long term value than whatever marginal prospect we may receive in a trade for a short term rental.
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People treat this like it's a video game. There are other factors than the binary decision of if braves are not good then sell.

It's more complicated than that.
 
thethe said:
People treat this like it's a video game. There are other factors than the binary decision of if braves are not good then sell.

It's more complicated than that.
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This is my biggest challenge with the spreadsheet mentality. The numbers are great and really useful. They should not be ignored. There are, however some things that don't show up there. Winning can be contagious. Team chemistry matters. Casual fans matter. There ought to be a balance between the two ways of looking at the team.

I don't think we need to jump all over anybody who moves that balance a little further one way or the other than we are personally comfortable with. That's why a place to discuss this stuff is so much fun.
 
mfree80 said:
This is my biggest challenge with the spreadsheet mentality. The numbers are great and really useful. They should not be ignored. There are, however some things that don't show up there. Winning can be contagious. Team chemistry matters. Casual fans matter. There ought to be a balance between the two ways of looking at the team.

I don't think we need to jump all over anybody who moves that balance a little further one way or the other than we are personally comfortable with. That's why a place to discuss this stuff is so much fun.
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Sure, I don't think those things don't matter; but should casual fans care about winning, if you build a long-term winner they will flock to you. I'm suggesting making moves that give the Braves a better chance long-term. That will attract the casual fans.

Chemisty matters, but I look at a team with Freeman/JT/Inciarte/Dickey/Swanson/Flowers/Markakis and don't see how trading Phillips causes this team to implode, lots of good chemistry guys still here.
 
If any of the casual fans/season ticket holders get mad about dealing Jaime Garcia, they're just looking for something to get mad at. There was an article yesterday with a scout calling him the best rental starting pitcher available. Not that I'm expecting a huge return or even close to it, but we need to be dealing guys like him. Especially with the injury history. This is a no-brainer.
 
thethe said:
What are you guys actually expecting for a return. The chance of getting a useful piece is extremely limited.
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That's not really the point, the point is you can get something to help long-term.

How much did TD cost to acquire? Wasn't he worth taking a chance on even if doesn't pan out? What if you got two more guys like TD this trading dealine by dealing Garcia/Phillips? Now you have three chances at that type of guy -- its all about giving yourself chances.

I'm not talking about trading for a AAAA 25 year old journeyman, you can acquire toolsy guys, or guys coming off injury --- all of which make way more sense going forward than letting Phillips or Garcia play out their contract and then losing them for nothing.
 
Let's get serious for a minute. The Nats and Dodgers have their divisions locked up. The Central will go to the Brewers or Cubs, and I'm going to go ahead and predict the Cubs take it.

That leaves the following teams fighting for the 2 WC spots, along with their projected wins:

Dbacks 87.8
Rockies 85.3
Brewers 82.7
Cards 81.8
Mets 79.2
Pirates 78.8
Braves 77.7

Holding out hope for the Braves to finish .500 and passed the Pirates and Mets is certainly a valid argument, especially if the Braves don't sell off any parts. A little more luck gets them past the Cards and Brewers.

But 85+ wins to get past the Rockies or DBacks? I don't see any rational argument to give the Braves 8 more wins than their current projections other than blind homerism.

FG has their playoff odds at 4.8%. Hopefully the FO doesn't decide to be buyers based on such a small chance.
 
Preacher said:
That's not really the point, the point is you can get something to help long-term.

How much did TD cost to acquire? Wasn't he worth taking a chance on even if doesn't pan out? What if you got two more guys like TD this trading dealine by dealing Garcia/Phillips? Now you have three chances at that type of guy -- its all about giving yourself chances.

I'm not talking about trading for a AAAA 25 year old journeyman, you can acquire toolsy guys, or guys coming off injury --- all of which make way more sense going forward than letting Phillips or Garcia play out their contract and then losing them for nothing.
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We were a terrible team with no chance of playing meaningful second half games. That's not the case anymore. Priorities change.
 
Enscheff said:
Let's get serious for a minute. The Nats and Dodgers have their divisions locked up. The Central will go to the Brewers or Cubs, and I'm going to go ahead and predict the Cubs take it.

That leaves the following teams fighting for the 2 WC spots, along with their projected wins:

Dbacks 87.8

Rockies 85.3

Brewers 82.7

Cards 81.8

Mets 79.2

Pirates 78.8

Braves 77.7

Holding out hope for the Braves to finish .500 and passed the Pirates and Mets is certainly a valid argument, especially if the Braves don't sell off any parts. A little more luck gets them past the Cards and Brewers.

But 85+ wins to get past the Rockies or DBacks? I don't see any rational argument to give the Braves 8 more wins than their current projections other than blind homerism.

FG has their playoff odds at 4.8%. Hopefully the FO doesn't decide to be buyers based on such a small chance.
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I'm not asking to be buyers. I just think we should consider holding on to out 1 year vets. No reason to push the chips all in until next year's deadline depending on who is available.
 
Enscheff said:
Let's get serious for a minute. The Nats and Dodgers have their divisions locked up. The Central will go to the Brewers or Cubs, and I'm going to go ahead and predict the Cubs take it.

That leaves the following teams fighting for the 2 WC spots, along with their projected wins:

Dbacks 87.8

Rockies 85.3

Brewers 82.7

Cards 81.8

Mets 79.2

Pirates 78.8

Braves 77.7

Holding out hope for the Braves to finish .500 and passed the Pirates and Mets is certainly a valid argument, especially if the Braves don't sell off any parts. A little more luck gets them past the Cards and Brewers.

But 85+ wins to get past the Rockies or DBacks? I don't see any rational argument to give the Braves 8 more wins than their current projections other than blind homerism.

FG has their playoff odds at 4.8%. Hopefully the FO doesn't decide to be buyers based on such a small chance.
Click to expand...

5% playoff odds sounds about right. To make the playoffs we will need luck in various forms. In particular, one of the Diamondbacks or Rockies or both need to implode.
 
thethe said:
We were a terrible team with no chance of playing meaningful second half games. That's not the case anymore. Priorities change.
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You are missing the point; you said "The chance of getting a useful piece is extremely limited."

I simply pointed out that you can get really toolsy guys for less than Garcia/Phillips -- we did it last year. Its a no brainer. We aren't going to the playoffs this year and Phillips/Garcia aren't part of the long-term... or even the short term plan. Why not try to get someone like a young Akeel Morris; a guy who can slot into our bullpen potentially for years to come.... IIRC we only traded Kelly Johnson for him.

I think we all agree we almost certainly aren't making the playoffs this year without a lot of luck right? We mostly agree that both Phillips and Garcia will be gone next year right? So deal them and get value for them, that's what smart organizations do.
 
Another point to consider.... as we get better as a team; we move further and further away from the easiest ways to add impact prospects... we aren't going to be getting top-5 picks, tons of slot money, or trading a lot of guys off at the deadlines. We are shifting into being a competitive team, this deadline might be our last for a while where we can reasonably be a seller to some degree and load up on some more prospect capital to move in the future.

But instead people want to hold onto semi-valuable chips so we can build momentum into 2018.
 
Preacher said:
Another point to consider.... as we get better as a team; we move further and further away from the easiest ways to add impact prospect... we aren't going to be getting top-5 picks, tons of slot money, or trading a lot of guys off at the deadlines. We are shifting into being a competitive team, this deadline might be our last for a while where we can reasonably be a seller to some degree and load up on some more prospect capital to move in the future.

But instead people want to hold onto semi-valuable chips so we can build momentum into 2018.
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Yeah. But let's not overstate what we might get at the deadline.
 
I don't think anyone here is arguing that the Braves SHOULD hold on to Phillips if they get a useful piece offered in return. I still want to add potential long term pieces, even if they are lottery tickets in exchange for a player who won't be here next season. We don't see this as a meaningful season in terms of competing, necessarily. However, what I'm saying is based on what the FO has been selling and the moves they have made just to make this team competitive and generate positive PR, they won't trade Phillips because he, in a way, represents what they want fans to buy into.

Now Garcia and Johnson, I can see get dealt because the it's easier to sell to the fans, as well as being players with value to contenders.
 
nsacpi said:
Yeah. But let's not overstate what we might get at the deadline.
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I don't think anyone is overstating it; I mentioned names like Akeel Morris and Travis Demerritte, who frankly were acquired for less than Jaime Garcia or Brandon Phillips.

Neither is really sexy, but TD was a toolsy INF with power/speed/defense that was/is a worthwhile risk and Akeel Morris is a good bullpen/potential arm with two above average pitches and years of control. I think you could do better than that for Garcia, why wouldn't you?
 
Enscheff said:
Let's get serious for a minute. The Nats and Dodgers have their divisions locked up. The Central will go to the Brewers or Cubs, and I'm going to go ahead and predict the Cubs take it.

That leaves the following teams fighting for the 2 WC spots, along with their projected wins:

Dbacks 87.8

Rockies 85.3

Brewers 82.7

Cards 81.8

Mets 79.2

Pirates 78.8

Braves 77.7

Holding out hope for the Braves to finish .500 and passed the Pirates and Mets is certainly a valid argument, especially if the Braves don't sell off any parts. A little more luck gets them past the Cards and Brewers.

But 85+ wins to get past the Rockies or DBacks? I don't see any rational argument to give the Braves 8 more wins than their current projections other than blind homerism.

FG has their playoff odds at 4.8%. Hopefully the FO doesn't decide to be buyers based on such a small chance.
Click to expand...

The only point in support is that Arizona and Colorado are both on horrible runs.
 
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