More than the number he's had this year with that BABIP. We'd have to see at least well into next year just to see if this slight uptick in power is legit as well.
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More than the number he's had this year with that BABIP. We'd have to see at least well into next year just to see if this slight uptick in power is legit as well.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Yes. This is a point worth keeping in mind. If Camargo proves to be worthy of holding down a spot as a regular, we do have an opening at third. We have enough openings in the infield to accommodate all three of Camargo, Swanson and Albies. So this is not necessarily a question of one or the other. Each of them has to prove himself independently of what the others are doing. I think what some of us are exercised about are the hints that some sort of preliminary decision has been made about which to keep and which to trade. Maybe we are misreading the smoke signals and making something out of nothing.
The power spike he's had is likely real. However it should be obvious his 360 BABIP is not. As it stands he profiles as a below average hitter. How much is going to be determined by where his K rate ends up. If it's low he could be a candidate to be a regular at 3B since he plays good defense there.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Cool answer. So.... how many?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
If the K rate stays above 20%, he's likely not good enough (in the sense of offsetting that with power, defense or a high BABIP) to remain a regular. If he gets it down to the 15-20% range (and maintains his current ISO) he is a marginal regular. If he gets it below 15% (which maintaining the current ISO) he's a pretty valuable player. Of course the ISO itself could change over time. But I agree with you that his power has ticked up and it is reasonable to project his current ISO gets sustained.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Ew. Gross.
About a year and a half of AB's for everything to stabilize. And that's mainly for his BABIP. We will know where his power, K%, and BB% stand well before that. In fact we are likely at that point already regarding those stats.
msstate7
Well-known member
Haha... maybe so, but this season is over. Why not let em audition for SS? Maybe Albies proves to the best and he's locked into 2b
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Defensively, I've been impressed with Albies at second. Less so with Swanson and Camargo at short. Camargo has been good at third. I think it is an open question which one of the 3 should be playing short.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Why do yo u need an exact number? But yes. After 750 ABS we will know whether Camargo has a special ability to live in the 350+ BABIP range.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Remember Chris Johnson in 2005? Almost .400 BABIP in almost 550 PAs.
I actually don't think we needed 700+ plate appearances to know his BABIP was going to regress.
Yeah. Johnson already had an established level as well for his BABIP which was in the ~350 range.. And it was no surprise to most of that he went right back to that level in his next two seasons either.
Tapate50
Well-known member
OK. thanks.
Because I want to be educated as to when someone is doing it for real heaters, or just in the world of make believe heaters.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
btw Swanson had a .383 BABIP last year in 145 PAs.
I think the probability is fairly high (based on minor league and major league data) that both Swanson and Camargo will settle at a .310-.330 BABIP in the majors.
I think Albies will be higher, somewhere in the .330-.350 range.
In any given year anything can happen with BABIP. I'm talking about an average over three years (say 2018-2020).
I think the probability is fairly high (based on minor league and major league data) that both Swanson and Camargo will settle at a .310-.330 BABIP in the majors.
I think Albies will be higher, somewhere in the .330-.350 range.
In any given year anything can happen with BABIP. I'm talking about an average over three years (say 2018-2020).
You don't need a set number. I've shown how to normalize stats manually based on a .300-.320 BABIP.
He can get lucky and keep a .400 BABIP over 500+ PAs...we've seen players like CJ do it before.
Problem is, we are looking at Camargo as a player for 2000 PAs, not 500. The reason it was dumb to extend CJ is the same reason it's dumb to make Camargo the every day SS.
That exact "play the hot hand" false logic is beloved by the current front office haha.
There is no way to predict when a player is about to get hot or get cold. He is as likely to turn into a pumpkin tomorrow as stay hot