Let's be real about Newcomb

msstate7 said:
Interesting point... if you throw out Newcomb's best bb game (6.0 ip and 1 bb, which he's done 3 times) and his worst bb game (4.2 ip and 7 bb, which he's done 1 time), then his bb/9 is 4.7. 4.7 isn't good, but it's better and a more accurate representation of his performance so far this season.
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It also removes him from the 5+ BB query, which instantly makes his odds go way up.
 
So let's try this again...how likely is Newk to improve his command?

Here is a list For single seasons, From 1997 to 2017, Age at or above 24, From 1st season to 2nd season, For any choice in Season Totals, (requiring GS >= 10 and BBp9 >= 5), as well as their resultant career BB/9 rate:

Aaron Harang 2.8
Brandon Webb 3
Eric Gagne 3.2
Joe Nathan 3.4
Aaron Heilman 3.7
Joaquin Benoit 3.7
Octavio Dotel 3.9
Doug Davis 4.1
Angel Guzman 4.2
Daisuke Matsuzaka 4.4
Joel Hanrahan 4.4
Paul Rigdon 4.4
Justin Miller 4.5
Scott Eyre 4.6
Micah Bowie 4.7
Russ Ortiz 4.7
Ryan Glynn 4.7
Jesus Sanchez 4.8
Blake Snell 5
Randy Keisler 5
Scott Williamson 5
Sean Newcomb 5.1
Victor Zambrano 5.1
Blake Stein 5.3
J.D. Durbin 5.3
Seth McClung 5.3
Tony Saunders 5.3
Kazuhisa Ishii 5.6
Radhames Liz 5.9
Andy Larkin 6.4

Of those 30 names, 7 got their career BB/9 under 4.0 (23%). You will be hard pressed to find a legit SP with a walk rate above 4.0.

Only 4 of those 30 (13%) got their career BB/9 to 3.5 or less, which is about where a good SP needs to be.

Any way you slice it, it is not likely Newk "figures it out".

I find it interesting the Top 4 guys on this list are pretty much the best 4 players on it.
 
Enscheff said:
So let's try this again...how likely is Newk to improve his command?

Here is a list For single seasons, From 1997 to 2017, Age at or above 24, From 1st season to 2nd season, For any choice in Season Totals, (requiring GS >= 10 and BBp9 >= 5), as well as their resultant career BB/9 rate:

Aaron Harang 2.8
Brandon Webb 3
Eric Gagne 3.2
Joe Nathan 3.4
Aaron Heilman 3.7
Joaquin Benoit 3.7
Octavio Dotel 3.9
Doug Davis 4.1
Angel Guzman 4.2
Daisuke Matsuzaka 4.4
Joel Hanrahan 4.4
Paul Rigdon 4.4
Justin Miller 4.5
Scott Eyre 4.6
Micah Bowie 4.7
Russ Ortiz 4.7
Ryan Glynn 4.7
Jesus Sanchez 4.8
Blake Snell 5
Randy Keisler 5
Scott Williamson 5
Sean Newcomb 5.1
Victor Zambrano 5.1
Blake Stein 5.3
J.D. Durbin 5.3
Seth McClung 5.3
Tony Saunders 5.3
Kazuhisa Ishii 5.6
Radhames Liz 5.9
Andy Larkin 6.4

Of those 30 names, 7 got their career BB/9 under 4.0 (23%). You will be hard pressed to find a legit SP with a walk rate above 4.0.

Only 4 of those 30 (13%) got their career BB/9 to 3.5 or less, which is about where a good SP needs to be.

Any way you slice it, it is not likely Newk "figures it out".

I find it interesting the Top 4 guys on this list are pretty much the best 4 players on it.
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I still don't totally know what your overall goal is in this. I think pretty much everyone agrees with you. Yes, his success will likely be tied very closely to his BB rate, since his other numbers are already very good. No, it is not extremely likely his BB rate improves drastically.

But he's been roughly a 2ish WAR pitcher so far in his first 11 starts. If he just maintains this, he's a guy we can have in our rotation while he's cheap. If he improves slightly, cool. If he improves more than that, awesome.

You seem hell-bent on proving that Newcomb is unlikely to become a really good major league starter and shoving that into someone's face. Who, I don't know. But you seem serious about it.
 
Enscheff said:
Then do I get to throw out the worst game of every pitcher in the data set as well?
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Only if that worst game is an outlier in a pretty small sample size. I think 7 is an outlier in Newk's case, and the MLB Sample size is still really small.
 
Let's take that original list and create an upper bound on BB rate. Let's make it all the guys between 5 and 5.5 BBs, since if the guys at 4.5 don't count, the guys over 5.5 don't, either. They're both too far away to mean much.

Now Newcomb has a 67% chance of becoming Aaron Harang or Octavio Dotel. Boom.
 
smootness said:
Let's take that original list and create an upper bound on BB rate. Let's make it all the guys between 5 and 5.5 BBs, since if the guys at 4.5 don't count, the guys over 5.5 don't, either. They're both too far away to mean much.

Now Newcomb has a 67% chance of becoming Aaron Harang or Octavio Dotel. Boom.
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Agreed.

I'll run the query when I get back from the gym.
 
Enscheff said:
So let's try this again...how likely is Newk to improve his command?

Here is a list For single seasons, From 1997 to 2017, Age at or above 24, From 1st season to 2nd season, For any choice in Season Totals, (requiring GS >= 10 and BBp9 >= 5), as well as their resultant career BB/9 rate:

Aaron Harang 2.8
Brandon Webb 3
Eric Gagne 3.2
Joe Nathan 3.4
Aaron Heilman 3.7
Joaquin Benoit 3.7
Octavio Dotel 3.9
Doug Davis 4.1
Angel Guzman 4.2
Daisuke Matsuzaka 4.4
Joel Hanrahan 4.4
Paul Rigdon 4.4
Justin Miller 4.5
Scott Eyre 4.6
Micah Bowie 4.7
Russ Ortiz 4.7
Ryan Glynn 4.7
Jesus Sanchez 4.8
Blake Snell 5
Randy Keisler 5
Scott Williamson 5
Sean Newcomb 5.1
Victor Zambrano 5.1
Blake Stein 5.3
J.D. Durbin 5.3
Seth McClung 5.3
Tony Saunders 5.3
Kazuhisa Ishii 5.6
Radhames Liz 5.9
Andy Larkin 6.4

Of those 30 names, 7 got their career BB/9 under 4.0 (23%). You will be hard pressed to find a legit SP with a walk rate above 4.0.

Only 4 of those 30 (13%) got their career BB/9 to 3.5 or less, which is about where a good SP needs to be.

Any way you slice it, it is not likely Newk "figures it out".

I find it interesting the Top 4 guys on this list are pretty much the best 4 players on it.
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It's very difficult to be successful with a mid-4s BB rate. However, it's not impossible. If you walk guys at that rate you have to strike out more guys than average so you can strand runners. You need to give up fewer hits than normal. And you can't let HRs bite you. If you do that you can be successful with a mid-4s. It's just very rare because it's rare to K a bunch of guys, give up few hits, and few HRs.

As for successful pitchers with a BB/9 over 4 who are successful? Someone is doing it this year. Robbie Ray. He has a 4.40 BB/9 and a 3.89 FIP. I'd say that's successful. He's not a bad comp for Newk either.
 
Enscheff said:
Agreed.

I'll run the query when I get back from the gym.
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I mean, we already know what it will return. And like I said, once that is done, Harang and Dotel become 2 of the 3 guys left. So his odds of becoming that level SP have drastically risen without him even pitching another game.

Funny what numbers can do.
 
smootness said:
I mean, we already know what it will return. And like I said, once that is done, Harang and Dotel become 2 of the 3 guys left. So his odds of becoming that level SP have drastically risen without him even pitching another game.

Funny what numbers can do.
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Umm...not finishing pitch? Spinning off to the glove side? Always wild high and away? Doesn't spray the ball? Mechanical issue, fixable and monitor?

Or 5.x BB/9, 2 pitchers over 24 have ever had a career after starting with this bad a control, he sucks, bring on next prospect to dissect...

Isn't it interesting to anyone to discuss the baseball side rather than the statistical analysis and odds that he'll make it? They're long, because he walks too many and has bad command. Did you know?
 
smootness said:
I mean, we already know what it will return. And like I said, once that is done, Harang and Dotel become 2 of the 3 guys left. So his odds of becoming that level SP have drastically risen without him even pitching another game.

Funny what numbers can do.
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Huh? No idea what kind of pseudo-math you're using there, but here is a list For single seasons, From 1997 to 2017, Age at or above 24, From 1st season to 2nd season, For any choice in Season Totals, (requiring GS >= 10, BBp9 >= 5 and BBp9
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Umm...not finishing pitch? Spinning off to the glove side? Always wild high and away? Doesn't spray the ball? Mechanical issue, fixable and monitor?

Or 5.x BB/9, 2 pitchers over 24 have ever had a career after starting with this bad a control, he sucks, bring on next prospect to dissect...

Isn't it interesting to anyone to discuss the baseball side rather than the statistical analysis and odds that he'll make it? They're long, because he walks too many and has bad command. Did you know?
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Yes, I'm sure watching your teenage kid pitch has made you an expert at identifying MLB pitcher mechanical flaws.
 
Regardless of everyone's thoughts on Newcomb this has been a very informative thread that hasn't devolve into name calling...I've thoroughly enjoyed reading it and thanks to everyone for posting the advanced stats, this is the best board in the biz because of threads such as this...you'd be hard pressed to find anyone on any other board discussing such things in depth
 
steveAKAslick said:
Regardless of everyone's thoughts on Newcomb this has been a very informative thread that hasn't devolve into name calling...I've thoroughly enjoyed reading it and thanks to everyone for posting the advanced stats, this is the best board in the biz because of threads such as this...you'd be hard pressed to find anyone on any other board discussing such things in depth
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Good stuff, no doubt. I was just suggesting we talk about the actual baseball in addition to the analysis.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
I was suggesting we all talk about it, not just me.
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My take on Newk's issue that I stated after seeing his first 5 MLB pitches is that he long arms the ball a bit from a 3/4 arm slot. I can see why any hiccup in timing results in losing the pitch up and away to RHers.

However, I have no solutions as to how to fix it, or even if I'm right, so I stick to what I know.
 
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