BABIP Gods Smile on Braves
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Early in the season, I like to look at walk rates for pitchers and strikeout rates for the hitters to gauge what might be changing. At this point it is still too early for that to make sense. I will look at those numbers after the first month. But it might be useful to look at the team walk and strikeout rates.
Our pitchers have the 5th highest strikeout rate in the NL. Not bad. They have the highest walk rate in the majors. Which is a problem.
Our hitters have the 6th highest walk rate in the NL. Not bad. They have the second lowest strikeout rate in the NL. This would be a fantastic thing if they can sustain it.
Our pitchers have the 5th highest strikeout rate in the NL. Not bad. They have the highest walk rate in the majors. Which is a problem.
Our hitters have the 6th highest walk rate in the NL. Not bad. They have the second lowest strikeout rate in the NL. This would be a fantastic thing if they can sustain it.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Yeah, but as a team we have gotten a lot of BABIP pixie dust so far this season.
On the pitching side, the low BABIP given up has limited the damage from all those walks.
msstate7
Well-known member
Not arguing that, but we are 5-2 with hardly any pruduction from 3 positions we were really counting on... opening day they hit 1, 2, and 4. I think as Swanson, tucker, and FF cool off, albies, inciarte, catcher, and acuna will take up some slack. We will not avg 10 runs a game, but our pitching will get better soon just by adding gohara
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I have full confidence that chuckie will address the walks by his staff. He is a stickler about guys walking hitters.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Lot of confidence in Gohara.
I am not the most knowledgeable on all of the advanced stats but doesn't BABIP seem too easy?
What I mean is that what I hear most people saying is more of an excuse.
X player is doing well...but they have a high BABIP. (ex: Swanson 2018) He is just had lots of luck!
Y player is struggling...but they have a low BABIP. (ex: Swanson 2017) He has been really unlucky!
While luck can help, really what should be said ...
Swanson has a high BABIP because he is hitting well.
Swanson has a low BABIP because he is really struggling.
What I really want to know is more basic...
What is his LD rate?
What is his exit velocity?
What is his K rate?
When Swanson has a good eye...and makes good contact...and hits Line drives, he is much more likely to be successful. (No luck involved!)
Can he keep it up? Who knows, but it fun for right now.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Now you've done it.
There are two things in play here. One is just truly being lucky. For example if player X is hitting very few line drives with weak contact but it supporting a high BABIP then I feel most people will agree that he's just been extremely lucky. Then there is also sustainability. If player Y has a high LD% and also has a high BABIP then most people would agree that he's not lucky but just hitting very well. The question then becomes is that sustainable.
In almost all cases however players will hover around a 300 BABIP. That's average across all players and has been consistent for many years. Several factors will influence this to make it where if you are above or below that it's not really luck but just part of your hitting profile. LD%, speed, IFFB %, etc.
Right now Swanson seems to have both going for him. A 455 BABIP even over a weeks worth of games will almost always have some luck involved. Still, he's currently supporting a line drive percentage of 36%. That's amazing and he's hitting really well right now.
msstate7
Well-known member
You're certainly not wrong about looking at the underlying batted ball profile before assuming luck, but when an entire team's BABIP is so high, the odds are high that it'll normalize.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Actually, I tend to agree with you. I think people misuse the stat. Where I think it has some predictive value is where you have two guys hitting .280, one guy's BABIP is .300, the other is .340, the first is more likely to sustain, the second regress.
Not real helpful when the guy's hitting .420 and somebody points out he's unlikely to sustain because of his high BABIP. Hey, no ****.
Nerfherders
Well-known member
If this stretch had happened in June, it would just be a blip. There is no way this continues, but ride it while it does!
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
you're right...something called expected BABIP can be calculated based on line drive rate etc...but when a player has a BABIP over .400 you dont need any extra analysis to know he is benefiting from luck