Arizona Fall League

BremanFan88 said:
Both the outs were line outs.
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Ridiculous. I don't know why we are looking for a second baseman this offseason. Just deal with Uggla as a sunk cost or try to save 2-3 million per year and just roll with LaStella. If you want to get a backup as a caddy on the right side then fine but LaStella should be the guy.
 
thethe said:
Ridiculous. I don't know why we are looking for a second baseman this offseason. Just deal with Uggla as a sunk cost or try to save 2-3 million per year and just roll with LaStella. If you want to get a backup as a caddy on the right side then fine but LaStella should be the guy.
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I could not agree more.
 
rico43 said:
The Braves are out there in force. They see the same things we're seeing, and if his defense holds up, then this could be a happy ending for everyone but Uggla.
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I bet they liked Northcraft last night. He is going under the radar by many. He has 3/4 starter written all over him. That's great value.
 
thethe said:
Ridiculous. I don't know why we are looking for a second baseman this offseason. Just deal with Uggla as a sunk cost or try to save 2-3 million per year and just roll with LaStella. If you want to get a backup as a caddy on the right side then fine but LaStella should be the guy.
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Don't need someone for the rightside with Pastor and Pena

This is what I'd do if I was the Braves this offseason in about the most realistic way

Offer Mac a qualifying offer, if he takes it awesome, if not cool. I presume he won't and we get a sandwich pick.

Trade Uggla for as much salary relief as possible.

Re-sign Huddy

Sign a guy like Madson or Marmol as a gambling reliever

Sign Omar to a 3 year 15 M deal. He may get a better offer than that elsewhere.

Turn down Reed's option

Cut guys like Elliot Johnson and Ernesto Mejia.

So our 25 man will be

2B - Tommy
RF - Jason
LF - Justin
1B - Freeman
C - Gattis
3B - CJ
CF - Bossman
SS - Simmons

Bench

Bethancourt (Laird is trade bait)
Omar (platoon type with Tommy, defensive replacement for CJ)
Schafer
Terds
Pena/Pastor/Georgie

Rotation

Minor
Medlen
Julio
Hudson
Wood

Pen

Kimbrel
Walden
Madson/Marmol
Avilan
Carpenter

So on so forth.
 
Kubitza is quietly having a solid AFL showing. Hopefully he will be able to handle AA this year.
 
I'm really curious about Tommy's defense. This guy's bat is ridiculous. He's not going to hit a lot of home runs, but honestly, that would be something I would welcome to this line up. The Braves are too reliant upon the home run to score runs as it is. They need another bat that can control the bat and not strike out in this line up.

It seems Tommy's detractors talk about his lack of power and lack of tools as a reason he won't be able to replicate what he's done to this point. Defense is also brought up a lot. I haven't found a website that keeps up with minor league defensive metrics yet, but with his defense, are we talking about Matt Carpenter type average defense with 0 DRS or are we talking about Dan Uggla type defense with a -19 DRS? Because if his defense is at least passable, this guy's bat is very valuable.
 
I'm not completely sold on Tommy but no reason Uggla should be on the team next year.

I think Frank is a good GM but the Uggla deal was a disaster, admit your mistakes and move on even if he has to eat most of the deal.

We have too many easy outs in the lineup with Uggla.

If we cant sign a stop-gap like Infante, i'd be cool with Gattis, FF, Tommy, Simba, CJ, JUp, BJ, Heyward position wise.

Not sure what the lineup 1-8 could be though.

Assuming Mac gets a huge offer elsewhere.
 
Assuming Mac bolts, here is my near 25 for now.

I dont think we'll do much, nor do we need too.

We were 1 game from having the best record in the NL despite a ridiculous amount of injuries.

Bring back Huddy on a 1-yr deal.

Find a way to trade Uggla at all costs, just no reason he should be on the team anymore.

Sign EOF to a 1 yr deal, tender Venters, and see if both are ready sometime down the line, if both are healthy, our pen would be ridiculous.

Trade Laird, make CB the backup C.

Gattis
FF
Tommy
Simba
CJ
JUp
BJ
Heyward

Huddy
Medlen
Minor
Julio
Wood/Beachy (only thing here is it would be tough to send one down unless one would be in the pen?)

Could go Beachy/Wood if Huddy isnt brought back.

Kimbrel
Walden
Carpenter
Avilan
FA (we'll have some money to play with)
Two of Hale/Varvaro/Gearrin/Graham, etc.

Bench:

CB/Laird
Terdo
Schafer
Pastor
FA

Infante would be perfect but he'll probably get a big deal elsewhere.
 
His MLE for the Braves is .279/.344/.376

And we all know how often MLE is wrong as far as using this season's numbers to predict the next step.

MLE is a good reminder that results in AA don't equal results in the majors. But that's all they are since they don't factor in growth or factors that aren't easily calculated like someone's swing. Someday when minor league stats are more indepth I'll put more weight into MLE but we're not at even 90% accuracy with major league projections I have little faith anytime soon we'll see good minor league to major league projections.
 
zitothebrave said:
His MLE for the Braves is .279/.344/.376

And we all know how often MLE is wrong as far as using this season's numbers to predict the next step.

MLE is a good reminder that results in AA don't equal results in the majors. But that's all they are since they don't factor in growth or factors that aren't easily calculated like someone's swing. Someday when minor league stats are more indepth I'll put more weight into MLE but we're not at even 90% accuracy with major league projections I have little faith anytime soon we'll see good minor league to major league projections.
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I believe it is estimated so that about half will do better than their MLEs and half worse. Anyone care to make the case for La Stella being part of the group that overperforms or underperforms their MLEs?
 
Heyward said:
Infante would be perfect but he'll probably get a big deal elsewhere.
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I don't know for sure but I'm betting Infante doesn't sign for big bucks. He last signed a 2/8 deal. I expect he gets a raise from that which is why I think he gets around a 3/15 deal which I think we can offer for him. He'd get enough work spelling CJ, Tommy and Co. to be worth that. And he wouldn't hamper our long term goals of keeping Jason, Freddie, and Justin.
 
I think Infante will get 8-10M/yr.

As a player he is somewhere between Scutaro (6M/yr) and Prado (11M/yr for the 3 free agency years in his contract).
 
Braves have money for the next two years. Sign Infante for 2 years 7-9 million per year.
 
nsacpi said:
I believe it is estimated so that about half will do better than their MLEs and half worse. Anyone care to make the case for La Stella being part of the group that overperforms or underperforms their MLEs?
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I would say over. Especially if we're going off last season. MLE has his iso under .100 and I'm fairly sure that he's got more power than that. I think he winds up in the .130 range maybe a little lower as a rookie though but who knows cause Tommy has shown good power other seasons. I don't think his average really can be much worse than .280 unless he either starts striking out way more often or he stops hitting line drives. Guys who don't strike out and hit line drives have high averages. Heck even if he doesn't hit a ton of linedrives, the guys with the 30 lowest K% (qualified) only 13 were below .280, only 8 below .270 so I'd consider Tommy a pretty comfortable bet to meet his average and OBP and he should beat his slugging.
 
nsacpi said:
I think Infante will get 8-10M/yr.

As a player he is somewhere between Scutaro (6M/yr) and Prado (11M/yr for the 3 free agency years in his contract).
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Infante is much more Scutaro than Prado.

With only about 4 years of experience as a starter (I'm using that term pretty loosely since he was more of a super sub for us his last year than a pure starter) his fWAR has been 2.1 2.1 2.9 (fluke defensive year) and 3.1 (fluke offensive year) I think most teams will see past the smoke and mirrors and see him as a valuable but not invaluable piece. I liken Infante to Polanco and Scutaro, those guys have never made more than 6M and Infante doesn't have their defensive reps.

I think most will see in Infante a guy who's league average with the bat or worse and league average with the glove depending on position. There's certainly some value to that but I highly doubt teams go much over 6 million for him. Could be wrong of course but I think if a team goes high with him it's on a 2 year deal tops.
 
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