I don't know what the surplus value numbers actually look like on this, but I would not do that. Syndergaard is on good value right now, but his K numbers have been slowly coming down and subsequently, he's not pitching nearly as well. He still has value, but I could see Pache coming in and being nearly equal in value right away and with much more control and cheaper.
2019 Trade Deadline Thread:
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I don't know what the surplus value numbers actually look like on this, but I would not do that. Syndergaard is on good value right now, but his K numbers have been slowly coming down and subsequently, he's not pitching nearly as well. He still has value, but I could see Pache coming in and being nearly equal in value right away and with much more control and cheaper.
DirkPiggler
Well-known member
This is how I figured the values, using the prospect valuation from Fangraphs from the link Enscheff posted in his forum, and the Fangraphs WAR projections through '21 for Syndegaard.
Pache: 60 FV, surplus value $53MM
Syndegaard:
2019: 1.9 fWAR, $2.0MM salary
2020: 4.2 fWAR, $12.0MM salary
2021: 4.1 fWAR, $18.0MM salary
10.2 fWAR @ $8MM = $81.6MM value
- 32.0MM salary
Total: $48.6MM surplus value
Like I said above, the arb salary estimates are guesses.
I don't know if I'd do that deal either. The fact that the Braves have Waters at AA along with Pache makes me kind of lean towards it, but I'd probably lead with an offer of Waters plus a lesser pitching prospect to see if the Mets would take it.
Tucker Davidson, Jasseel De La Cruz, and Daysbal Hernandez have all had good 1st halves and could be good sell high candidates IMO
I’m guessing the new leadership in SF will be too smart to fall for sell high candidates. They should be looking at the same data the Braves are when valuing these guys.
However, they may be looking to pull off a short rebuild that could make them value MLB ready guys more than they typically would. It will be very interesting to see what AA pulls off.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Syndegard has about 55m of surplus value, so maybe a trade package worth 82.5m.
That's more like Pache, Wilson/Touissant/Wentz, , plus something else interesting.
Mets would probably shoot for something Pache and Anderson/Wright.
I think Thor stands to make about 11m in 2020 and 16m in 2021, but not as sure about that arb4 number.
That's more like Pache, Wilson/Touissant/Wentz, , plus something else interesting.
Mets would probably shoot for something Pache and Anderson/Wright.
I think Thor stands to make about 11m in 2020 and 16m in 2021, but not as sure about that arb4 number.
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
I love to see more and more people here use data to drive discussion. Bravo
Having said that, I really hope the Braves don't trade any prospects from their top tier guys.
So just to get this straight. You guys want to give Pache (who could easily be a perennial all star), for a very talented pitcher who has a absolute horrible injury history.
I honestly don’t care who we give up on the farm EXCEPT for Pache and Waters. They are absolutely on the untouchable list. Having an out field of Acuna, Pache and Waters for years on the cheap is just too valuable.
You just don’t trade those guys...for anyone and especially not on an overpay trade deadline deal.
Interesting at least.
Not sure which way I'd lean, but wonder if the Mutts would make a trade like that within the division - even if AA would. Could you imagine what the New York press would be like if they were to make that kind of deal only to see Syndergaard front our rotation for three deep playoff runs if Pache didn't turn into an All-Star almost immediately?
I'm just not sure there's anyone out there that I'd trade Pache for at this point - given how inexpensively Acuna and Albies are locked up for, the likelihood that Freeman and Dansby would sign team-friendly extensions, our pitching depth (even if an "Ace" doesn't emerge from within), and the money coming off the books over the next couple of years, if Riley, Pache, and Waters develop into anything close to what we hope you could go out and spend big to sign Cole this winter if AA felt like he HAD to have that TOR guy and still have all this depth. I know no one likes those big contracts (especially for Pitchers) but if you still control all our offensive players other than Donaldson what do you do with the $48 million that Donaldson/Keuchel/Teheran made this year? That still leaves the $17 million that O'Day, Swarzak, and Duvall are making to spend on arbitration raises, and you could choose to trade Ender and/or trade Gausman or cut him loose if you needed more money.
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Pache has progressed pretty much along the best case scenario path. Count me as one who wouldn’t trade him for pretty much anything.
Like Paxton, Thor is the type of elite arm I could get behind acquiring, but it would have to be for a package centered around Riley, Waters, Anderson and/or Wright.
Like Paxton, Thor is the type of elite arm I could get behind acquiring, but it would have to be for a package centered around Riley, Waters, Anderson and/or Wright.
JohnAdcox
Brian Jordan's New BFF
Those two and Anderson for me.
Nerfherders
Well-known member
I wouldn't trade those three for any kind of pitcher that would be available.
After those three, I think Wright, the two Catchers, and Shewmake probably make up that extended "untouchable unless it's a MAJOR deal" list.
Just can't see them giving up on Wright this quickly - entirely too much upside there. Are we really so close that we can give up those kinds of pieces just yet?
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Southcack77
Well-known member
Shewmake? If we can flip him for something of value this soon, we should absolutely be open to that.
NYCBrave
Well-known member
Im hoping AA can convince a team to take what Baltimore did for Machado from LA. Quantity over Quality with no really standout prospects included.
Only included him because I think someone would love to have Camargo in a deal at the deadline - if Shewmake moves as fast as hoped you keep Culberson as your utility guy for 2020, and hope Shewmake is ready to fill that kind of role in 2021.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
I think I would do that. Very on the fence about it but having Acuna in CF is the reason I would make the deal. Surplus value is a joke though. Its only as good as your ability to predict future performance which might work with established MLB players but is about as effective as using voodoo when valuing prospects.
Deester11
Well-known member
This I like.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Doubt we look to unload Pache or Waters honestly. Even for a high end player.