Cool Trade Simulation Website

B

BeanieAntics

Arbitration Eligible
I know people always love to post trade ideas on here. Some good, some that are so bad that they become memes that last years and years.

I'm reluctant to post this since I enjoy some of the ridiculous proposals, but here is a website that uses the FV model to simulate whether or not a trade would make sense. It seems to have factored in everything except for a contender's premium, but this should help some people who may want to put together more coherent trade ideas. Plus its pretty fun to play around with:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
 
Individual-1 said:
If only murph3 where here to see this.
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here's a look at his reaction

internet-o-face-samberg-295x300.jpeg
 
Russ2dollas said:
I got bumgarder and smith for Inciarte....I think trades are more than just a math problem.
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Obviously you have to take into account the needs of the other team, but from a value perspective that probably isn't too far off. Maybe the site isn't accounting for (or hasn't updated) Ender's injury and pre-injury slump properly, but before the year started Ender was a 3 win outfielder controlled cheaply for 4 years. The only ridiculous thing about that trade is the notion that the Giants would only want back a major league piece.

Two 20 million dollar trade assets might not be created equal. There are a few externalities that have to be considered separately from the SV model. But there is a reason that you can look back on trades from the past 10+ years and find a very high correlation between the average value of those trades and the SV model.
 
So,

I got Samardzija, Smith and $10M for Allard, Duvall and Teheran and the program said that the Braves only "maybe" do it.

I'm thinking the formula is missing something.
 
The other thing about FV trades is that while yes, a Bumgarner may be worth 1 or 2 wins for last 2 months
.. but those wins are worth 0 to SF before he leaves. So I don't believe it has to be a equal value trade, it just has to be the best offer

If that makes sense
 
sturg33 said:
The other thing about FV trades is that while yes, a Bumgarner may be worth 1 or 2 wins for last 2 months
.. but those wins are worth 0 to SF before he leaves. So I don't believe it has to be a equal value trade, it just has to be the best offer

If that makes sense
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yeah but contenders are willing to pay a premium in those situations in part because they expect him to be pitching in the post-season
 
It’s a fun little site, but has some valuation issues for sure. I got Lance Lynn for Gohara straight up.
 
mqt said:
It’s a fun little site, but has some valuation issues for sure. I got Lance Lynn for Gohara straight up.
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Seems fair, actually—though selling short of Gohara’s potential for a starter in his 30s with a solid contract that has two more years on it.
 
mqt said:
It’s a fun little site, but has some valuation issues for sure. I got Lance Lynn for Gohara straight up.
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I think the main issue with the valuations is they don't seem to be updated regularly enough. They still have Acuna as controllable for 5.5 years even though he signed the 10 year deal. If they updated the contract situations and industry consensus prospect rankings/valuations then it would be fine.
 
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