Preparing for the Cards in the NLDS

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
It's looking like the Cards are going to be the Braves opponent in the NLDS beginning October 3rd. They are much closer in true talent to the Braves than their actual records indicate. The Braves have been about 7-8 wins "lucky" this year based on higher order winning percentages, while the Cards have had pretty much neutral luck. If the Braves are a true talent 90-91 win team, the Cards are a true talent 89-90 win team. This should be a very evenly matched series.

Due to the parity of this series, the Braves must be gunning for every small advantage they can get.

The first step is to look for advantages against the Cards' offense. Luckily this is a team that starts the same RHH-heavy lineup everyday regardless of opposing pitcher (xwOBA vs RHP/LHP):

RF Fowler (S): .342/.320
2B Wong (L): .308/.295
1B Goldy (R): .347/.441
LF Ozuna (R): .377/.373
SS DeJong (R): .329/.310
C Molina (R): .306/.346
3B Edman (S): .312/.321
CF Bader (R): .327/.296

BN Martinez (R): .330/.414
BN Carpenter (L): .323/.344

Overall: .316/.330

First thing to note is the Cards insist on putting a terrible hitter in the 2 spot like dinosaurs, so that's nice for the Braves. Dealing with Wong should not be a major issue for planning purposes.

The issues that immediately jump off the page are that Goldy should never face a LHP in a high leverage situation, and Ozuna should probably be pitched around in almost all important situations.

Martinez looms on the bench as a LHP killer, so he can not be allowed to bat with the platoon advantage ever. He is the Cards trump card, so his presence must be accounted for in every pitching move the Braves make. They will undoubtedly be looking to get him a PA late in the game with men on base vs one of the Braves many RHP in the BP.

The Cards don't really present a good option for an opener or piggy backing opposite handed SPs, so the Braves should just throw their best SPs at them and be mindful of pulling them early (assuming DK, Soroka, Fried, Folty in some order, but I can see the argument for getting Teheran in there).

For example, it may not make sense to let DK or Fried face Goldy even a 2nd time in a high leverage situation. If Goldy comes up for his 2nd PA in a low leverage spot, they can probably allow DK/Fried to face him and then hopefully also get through Fowler/Wong a 3rd time if the pitch counts are low. If Molina comes up for his 2nd PA in a high leverage spot, the Braves probably need to go to a RHP out of the BP.

Folty and Soroka should be allowed to go through the order 2x, and should be replaced if Fowler comes up a 3rd time in a high leverage spot. This is where Blevins and/or Newk are going to earn their postseason roster spots...getting out Fowler in key situations and neutralizing Martinez' impact off the bench.

In all, the Braves should be able to platoon match up their way through this lineup, and then hope Goldy/Ozuna don't take over a game all by themselves. The Braves seem to have much more potent offensive weapons, so if they step up I like their chances in this series.
 
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We do have a favorable platoon matchup against the Cards. Especially all the right handed relievers in our pen. We have a little bit of a weakness when it comes to lefty relievers. But that should not be an issue in this series.

The Cards pen also is a bit short in terms of lefty relievers. I think one thing we have to try be careful about is going Markakis, Joyce, McCann. If they bring in Andrew Miller (or their other lefty Tyler Webb) in a high leverage situation, I know Snit will let Markakis hit and possibly pinch hit for Joyce. I hope he will be proactive in using Duvall in those situations.
 
nsacpi said:
We do have a favorable platoon matchup against the Cards. Especially all the right handed relievers in our pen. We have a little bit of a weakness when it comes to lefty relievers. But that should not be an issue in this series.

The Cards pen also is a bit short in terms of lefty relievers. I think one thing we have to try be careful about is going Markakis, Joyce, McCann. If they bring in Andrew Miller (or their other lefty Tyler Webb) in a high leverage situation, I know Snit will let Markakis hit and possibly pinch hit for Joyce. I hope he will be proactive in using Duvall in those situations.
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That's exactly what the Cards will do to the Braves since every starting lineup will have Freeman, Markakis, Joyce and Mac somewhere 3-8. They will be able to castrate the middle of the Braves order 2 innings every game with Miller, and the only counter the Braves will have is Duvall and one of Flowers/Cervelli...maybe Riley.

When Miller comes in to face all those LHHs, Snit must be ready to counter with Duvall/Flowers/Cervelli as a PHer, and possibly Hamilton as a PRer if a catcher gets on base. JD and Swanson getting on vs Miller to create one of those high leverage PAs for Duvall/Flowers/Cervelli could very well be a key to one or more of the games.
 
I'm curious to see how our lineup will be constructed, and how our catchers are deployed in the series since all of their starters are righty.

We know what the batting order 1-5 will be. But will Snit move Swanson up in the order to break up all of the lefties in a row?
 
Super said:
such a shame Snit will insist on markakis every day and batting him 5th. it will cost them
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yeah...that's another thing, and upstairs is not going to fight this either. Markakis will bat 5th and he will be treated like Freddie vs LHP, never being removed. Joyce will get taken down, but with Snitker, it's too far for him to understand that while Nick is great in the clubhouse, he can get taken down vs LHP instead of him continuing to play and fight to the death.
 
Fortunately Miller is not the Miller of a few years ago. But it is still likely that Snit will have to make some decisions when they go to a lefty.
 
You guys are way overthinking this. Every game we play comes down to 5 guys - the first 4 guys in the lineup and the SP. If those guys are going, we will win, and if not, we probably won't. It's kind of a shame they don't have a lefty starter, it turns our 2-hole hitter from an .800 OPS guy to 1.000.
 
Folks are basing Hech over Swanson based on 63 PAs where Hech's .350 BABIP is 50 points over his career mark, and his wOBA/xwOBA delta of .033 is tied with Flowers for 2nd luckiest on the team since he joined the team (Joyce with a crazy lucky .048 mark).

Meanwhile, Swanson has been bad, but his -.082 is the unluckiest mark on the team over that span by a very large margin. His BABIP in September is unsustainable in a good way at .216.

Competent teams don't make lineup decisions based on 60-70 PA sample sizes. If Swanson is healthy, he is the SS for the Atlanta Braves.
 
Enscheff said:
Folks are basing Hech over Swanson based on 63 PAs where Hech's .350 BABIP is 50 points over his career mark, and his wOBA/xwOBA delta of .033 is tied with Flowers for 2nd luckiest on the team since he joined the team (Joyce with a crazy lucky .048 mark).

Meanwhile, Swanson has been bad, but his -.082 is the unluckiest mark on the team over that span by a very large margin. His BABIP in September is unsustainable in a good way at .216.

Competent teams don't make lineup decisions based on 60-70 PA sample sizes. If Swanson is healthy, he is the SS for the Atlanta Braves.
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you got baited
 
Nerfherders said:
You guys are way overthinking this. Every game we play comes down to 5 guys - the first 4 guys in the lineup and the SP. If those guys are going, we will win, and if not, we probably won't. It's kind of a shame they don't have a lefty starter, it turns our 2-hole hitter from an .800 OPS guy to 1.000.
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Mark Lemke and Francisco Cabrera say hi. So does Lonnie Smith.
 
There's a chance that Dansby doesn't start if he doesn't have a good week this week. He's better than Hech, but he might simply not be himself (even if his luck has been porous). Shouldn't have rushed him back from injury.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
There's a chance that Dansby doesn't start if he doesn't have a good week this week. He's better than Hech, but he might simply not be himself (even if his luck has been porous). Shouldn't have rushed him back from injury.
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I think there is a zero percent chance Bae sits for Hech.
 
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