Braves Sign Will Smith

Tapate50 said:
Just to recap the offseason so far :

Cut Julio
Added Will Smith aka the best closer available
Signed O Day to a cheap deal
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I'm a fan so far. Absolutely have to capitalize on the cheap years from our young talent. The time to go all in on free agency is now.
 
clvclv said:
Going to be beyond interesting to see some folks' ramblings when AA goes out and signs both Donaldson and Bumgarner,
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Even if he does, that doesn't mean it's a smart move. The Phillies spent "stupid money" last off-season and look where that got them?
 
Super said:
i for one am not looking forward to the Will Smith jokes all year.
i can only imagine how *he* feels.
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He might not like it at first, but by mid-season I imagine he'll be jiggy with it.

May be we'll resign Martin. Have them Bad Boys stacked up to finish off games.
 
Here are the 3 year contracts doled out to BP arms last year along with their 2019 xwOBA:

Kimbrel 3/43 (Cubs) - .399
Britton 3/39 (Yanks) - .273
Familia 3/30 (Mets) - .328
Ottavino 3/27 (Yanks) - .269
Kelly 3/25 (Dodgers) - .283
Iglesias 3/24 (Reds) - .282

Here are the big contracts handed out 2 years ago to BP arms along with their 2018-2019 xwOBA:

Davis 3/52 (Rockies) - .296
Chatwood 3/38 (Cubs) - .347
Shaw 3/27 (Rockies) - .341
McGee 3/27 (Rockies) - .333

For reference, Luke Jackson posted an xwOBA of .267 and performed better than all the big ticket BP arms signed last year.

I can't overstate how disappointing this move was, especially giving up the pick to do it. They very rarely work out, and now the Braves have one of them.
 
Enscheff said:
Here are the 3 year contracts doled out to BP arms last year along with their 2019 xwOBA:

Kimbrel 3/43 (Cubs) - .399
Britton 3/39 (Yanks) - .273
Familia 3/30 (Mets) - .328
Ottavino 3/27 (Yanks) - .269
Kelly 3/25 (Dodgers) - .283
Iglesias 3/24 (Reds) - .282

Here are the big contracts handed out 2 years ago to BP arms along with their 2018-2019 xwOBA:

Davis 3/52 (Rockies) - .296
Chatwood 3/38 (Cubs) - .347
Shaw 3/27 (Rockies) - .341
McGee 3/27 (Rockies) - .333

For reference, Luke Jackson posted an xwOBA of .267 and performed better than all the big ticket BP arms signed last year.

I can't overstate how disappointing this move was, especially giving up the pick to do it. They very rarely work out, and now the Braves have one of them.
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What was the xwOBA of those relievers in the two years before they signed the deal in comparison to what Will Smith's was? That might help make your case.
 
Enscheff said:
Here are the 3 year contracts doled out to BP arms last year along with their 2019 xwOBA:

Kimbrel 3/43 (Cubs) - .399
Britton 3/39 (Yanks) - .273
Familia 3/30 (Mets) - .328
Ottavino 3/27 (Yanks) - .269
Kelly 3/25 (Dodgers) - .283
Iglesias 3/24 (Reds) - .282

Here are the big contracts handed out 2 years ago to BP arms along with their 2018-2019 xwOBA:

Davis 3/52 (Rockies) - .296
Chatwood 3/38 (Cubs) - .347
Shaw 3/27 (Rockies) - .341
McGee 3/27 (Rockies) - .333

For reference, Luke Jackson posted an xwOBA of .267 and performed better than all the big ticket BP arms signed last year.

I can't overstate how disappointing this move was, especially giving up the pick to do it. They very rarely work out, and now the Braves have one of them.
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Of that top list, Britton, Kelly, and Iglesias saw their wxOBA go down.

Of the bottom list, Davis saw his wxOBA go up 3 points and Chatwood 14 points. So it's not like those guys were significantly worse than their FA year.

I think the real problem with a lot of the guys who didn't work out is that they weren't that great when they got these deals. I think that might be a factor at teams getting better at identifying players worth extending and those that it's better to let walk.

I think Smith has a pretty good chance of continuing to be effective. Will he stay as effective as he has been the last few years? Hard to say.

Fangraphs appears to like the signing though:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/wild-wild-east-the-braves-sign-will-smith/
 
striker42 said:
Of that top list, Britton, Kelly, and Iglesias saw their wxOBA go down.

Of the bottom list, Davis saw his wxOBA go up 3 points and Chatwood 14 points. So it's not like those guys were significantly worse than their FA year.

I think the real problem with a lot of the guys who didn't work out is that they weren't that great when they got these deals. I think that might be a factor at teams getting better at identifying players worth extending and those that it's better to let walk.

I think Smith has a pretty good chance of continuing to be effective. Will he stay as effective as he has been the last few years? Hard to say.

Fangraphs appears to like the signing though:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/wild-wild-east-the-braves-sign-will-smith/
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His Highness will be SO disappointed - wonder what kind of names he has for those hacks at that website???
 
I'm not a fan of paying Melancon and Smith 27 million, but I am a huge fan that I won't be watching ball games this year with a sorry pen.

Lefty, 30 yrs old, 34 saves last year. I will choose to give AA a thumbs up for this one.
 
Enscheff said:
Here are the 3 year contracts doled out to BP arms last year along with their 2019 xwOBA:

Kimbrel 3/43 (Cubs) - .399
Britton 3/39 (Yanks) - .273
Familia 3/30 (Mets) - .328
Ottavino 3/27 (Yanks) - .269
Kelly 3/25 (Dodgers) - .283
Iglesias 3/24 (Reds) - .282

Here are the big contracts handed out 2 years ago to BP arms along with their 2018-2019 xwOBA:

Davis 3/52 (Rockies) - .296
Chatwood 3/38 (Cubs) - .347
Shaw 3/27 (Rockies) - .341
McGee 3/27 (Rockies) - .333

For reference, Luke Jackson posted an xwOBA of .267 and performed better than all the big ticket BP arms signed last year.

I can't overstate how disappointing this move was, especially giving up the pick to do it. They very rarely work out, and now the Braves have one of them.
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I agree with your overall premise, and I know what xwOBA says, but Jackson was extremely volatile last year. Started out the year great, but quickly became unreliable as the season went on (ERA over 5.00 in the 2nd half, BB rate and HR rates sky rocketed). I know RPs in general are volatile, but I don't see how you can say with a straight face that you'd be more comfortable with Jackson over Iglesias, Ottavino, or Britton. I mean AA thought so little of Jackson that he went out and got 2 new relievers with closing experience and another reliever that we relied on way more often than Jackson.

Certainly I don't agree with signing Smith for 3 years and giving up a pick. I'd rather have let Melancon continue to close, bring back Martin, and sign another solid piece like Clippard or Diekman.
 
The pick is not as bad if the plan is to sign multiple comp eligible FA. I think there are a lot of signs that point to the Braves making a statement after the embarrassment of October 9th 2019..
 
i like it

obviously risk but so be it

i don't give a **** what stat Jackson has to show him being good. i don't trust him (seriously the only player that i can't overlook what i saw from him vs stats lol )

i really don't care about the pick or what it could turn into 5 or 6 years from now. i want to ****ing win, tried of just being ok/good
 
Carp said:
I agree with your overall premise, and I know what xwOBA says, but Jackson was extremely volatile last year. Started out the year great, but quickly became unreliable as the season went on (ERA over 5.00 in the 2nd half, BB rate and HR rates sky rocketed). I know RPs in general are volatile, but I don't see how you can say with a straight face that you'd be more comfortable with Jackson over Iglesias, Ottavino, or Britton. I mean AA thought so little of Jackson that he went out and got 2 new relievers with closing experience and another reliever that we relied on way more often than Jackson.

Certainly I don't agree with signing Smith for 3 years and giving up a pick. I'd rather have let Melancon continue to close, bring back Martin, and sign another solid piece like Clippard or Diekman.
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Jackson's xwOBA was included to illustrate these BP arms were all below elite level guys. The market at the time dictated those guys were worth 3 years, and almost none of them are turning out to be good contracts. The market today dictated Smith was worth 3 years, just like those guys. Folks can attempt to talk themselves into this being a good contract, but history suggests 3 year deals for BP arms in their 30s almost never work out unless they are truly elite...and usually not even then.

Teams with $180M+ payroll can afford to give out these types of contracts to stabilize the BP in the short term at the expense of losing payroll flexibility in the long term. Teams like the Braves with $130M payrolls probably shouldn't, especially when they have a ton of arms capable of becoming the next Will Smith for league minimum.

That list is populated by filthy rich teams, and not-rich teams too stupid to know any better. Which group do the Braves fall into? AA just spent 2 years not being stupid, and this move is completely out of character based on what we've seen.

And we aren't even discussing the fact the Braves gave up what is now reportedly their 2nd highest pick to make this deal happen, and will only be getting a pick in the 70s back when/if they lose JD.

All around a terrible signing (I'm being overly dramatic, I know)...unless payroll suddenly jumps to levels we never imagined and they can easily cover a BP splurge like this.
 
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goldfly said:
i like it

obviously risk but so be it

i don't give a **** what stat Jackson has to show him being good. i don't trust him (seriously the only player that i can't overlook what i saw from him vs stats lol )

i really don't care about the pick or what it could turn into 5 or 6 years from now. i want to ****ing win, tried of just being ok/good
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That philosophy is short sighted. One you should always care about draft picks and who they turn out to be. Two. No one cares about losing the pick per se. it is about choosing to lose the pick on a reliever that was going to accept the QO. If AA signs another QO bat then this signing is a good deal imo.
 
So, let's pretend for a moment the Braves payroll is getting a 30 million opening day bump up to 150 million and that's why we splurged on Wilson. Would the elite FA's now become a possibility for us? I assume still no, but Rendon is pretty much the perfect fit for our needs and makes a division rival weaker in the process. Would still leave us with roughly 20 million to find a catcher, a SP, and possibly another OFer.
 
Flags fly forever! Who cares about future seasons? Win now!!

Dombrowski just lost his job 1 year after winning the World Series because the Red Sox got tired of looking at that flag in less than 1 year...and all he did was exactly what everyone wanted him to do...

Maddon lost his job after the Cubs failed to win another WS, just a few short years after being the genius that guided them to their first title in forever. I guess the Cubs got tired of staring at a flag too.

But yeah...flags fly forever...too bad the jobs of the guys who won those flags don't last even a few years.
 
Enscheff said:
Jackson's xwOBA was included to illustrate these BP arms were all below elite level guys. The market at the time dictated those guys were worth 3 years, and almost none of them are turning out to be good contracts. The market today dictated Smith was worth 3 years, just like those guys. Folks can attempt to talk themselves into this being a good contract, but history suggests 3 year deals for BP arms in their 30s almost never work out unless they are truly elite...and usually not even then.

Teams with $180M+ payroll can afford to give out these types of contracts to stabilize the BP in the short term at the expense of losing payroll flexibility in the long term. Teams like the Braves with $130M payrolls probably shouldn't, especially when they have a ton of arms capable of becoming the next Will Smith for league minimum.

That list is populated by filthy rich teams, and not-rich teams too stupid to know any better. Which group do the Braves fall into? AA just spent 2 years not being stupid, and this move is completely out of character based on what we've seen.

And we aren't even discussing the fact the Braves gave up what is now reportedly their 2nd highest pick to make this deal happen, and will only be getting a pick in the 70s back when/if they lose JD.

All around a terrible signing...unless payroll suddenly jumps to levels we never imagined and they can easily cover a BP splurge like this.
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One advantage AA has over these super rich teams are the 10 years of elite production from 2 roster spots for pennies on the dollar. That coupled with a payroll bump to 150ish will let us compete with the big dogs a little bit. Our payroll obligations for 2021 is less than 50 million
 
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