Braves Sign Will Smith
- Thread starter mqt
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MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
Here's the thing about "flags fly forever", as it relates to the Cubs: they possibly didn't need Chapman to win that World Series (and they lapped their division, so they certainly didn't need him in the regular season). Chapman pitched in five games in that series: two comfortable wins, a loss, a close game where he actually blew the save (game seven) and one close game where he was dominant (game five). He had an ERA closer to four than to three in the LCS and the World Series.
Of course, you don't usually want to get that granular with the analysis, and you can't look at game logs to say a given trade was good or bad. But it does illustrate just how tricky the win now/screw the future trades are. You trade Torres for Chapman knowing you'll likely "lose" the trade in terms of value acquired vs. value surrendered, but that's OK because you're prioritizing value in the present over value in the future. But when you're talking about such small sample sizes, especially with regards to relievers, you can't be sure you're actually in a position to get big-time present-day value. You're sacrificing the future without even knowing that you're getting the present in return.
In essence, the Cubs traded the career of Gleyber Torres, a great damn player, in exchange for game five of the World Series.
Of course, you don't usually want to get that granular with the analysis, and you can't look at game logs to say a given trade was good or bad. But it does illustrate just how tricky the win now/screw the future trades are. You trade Torres for Chapman knowing you'll likely "lose" the trade in terms of value acquired vs. value surrendered, but that's OK because you're prioritizing value in the present over value in the future. But when you're talking about such small sample sizes, especially with regards to relievers, you can't be sure you're actually in a position to get big-time present-day value. You're sacrificing the future without even knowing that you're getting the present in return.
In essence, the Cubs traded the career of Gleyber Torres, a great damn player, in exchange for game five of the World Series.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I had forgotten about Hamels. He's a bit older so he should be available on a 1-2 year deal. I love those kinds of deals for older players who are still productive.
It's unlikely the Cubs win without the Chapman trade, but whatever.
If I could absolutely guarantee a WS win in 2020, you bet your ass I'd take it. Clearly it can't be guaranteed it, so it's a moot point, and I certainly wouldn't make that trade otherwise.
But again, this isn't about supporting a Braves plan to follow the Sox/Cubs. The point is that making fun of the Sox/Cubs when they clearly received the desired benefits of such moves is dumb. They sold the future for a chance to win now and it worked.
It really breaks down into an example of a choice between 2 options:
1. 10 seasons with a 10% of winning a WS, or
2. 1 season with a guaranteed WS and 9 seasons of irrelevance.
The behavioral science behind wager games are built on #1 being far more preferable. The entire casino industry is literally founded in it.
Personally, I’d rather watch 10 exciting seasons than 1. Maybe I need more bull semen.
1. 10 seasons with a 10% of winning a WS, or
2. 1 season with a guaranteed WS and 9 seasons of irrelevance.
The behavioral science behind wager games are built on #1 being far more preferable. The entire casino industry is literally founded in it.
Personally, I’d rather watch 10 exciting seasons than 1. Maybe I need more bull semen.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
It is, as is being good year in and year out. Playoff baseball is unpredictable, selling out the future doesnt guarantee anything.
Yes, but I spent most of that season staring at pictures of the 1995 WS flag.
It was wonderful!!
NYCBrave
Well-known member
Two things to consider. Not sure if any correlation, but this really makes me feel like AA is pursuing a trade of Riley to whoever values him the highest to get a legit bat in return.
Also thinking of the valuation of relevers with the new rules going into place. Is AA trying to get ahead of the curve in a time when LOOGYs and ROOGYs will see their value diminished?
Also thinking of the valuation of relevers with the new rules going into place. Is AA trying to get ahead of the curve in a time when LOOGYs and ROOGYs will see their value diminished?
Your thought experiment is flawed because you only took the positive outcome to the extreme and neglected to take the negative outcome to the extreme as well.
Very common logical hole in the thought sequence of people who evaluate results over process.
This is a very good point that we (meaning I) glossed over.
2 year xwOBA of those pitchers prior to getting their big contract:
McGee: .323
Chatwood: .323
Kelly: .313
Britton: .304
Iglesias: .291
Davis: .278
Familia: .278
Shaw: .276
Ottavino: .275
Kimbrel: .253
Smith: .248
So yes, it is fair to say Will Smith is considerably better than all of those BP arms were except Kimbrel.
Given that data, signing Will Smith to a contract similar to the deal received by lesser (in some cases much lesser) BP arms should be considered a good value move.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
You just linked two articles from two individuals, not a poll of a fanbase. And one of the articles states plainly that Cubs fans are having regrets over the Chapman trade.
Would you rather have not won the 95 series? I suppose we could have kept Roberto Kelly instead of trading for Grissom. What might have been!!!!
LOL...
"And now that Torres is developed into a bonafide stud, and Chapman ended up back in New York, some fans are having regrets about the deal."
You literally just posted something that completely negates your position.
Logic...it's not for everyone...
Can't find a poll. But you're welcome to start one.
I linked that specific article because the Cubs that responded to the tweets all were for the trade.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
As someone very much in the “don’t pay relievers” camp, this context is at least encouraging and suggestive of a logic beyond panic.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It could be that later in the off-season another team will sign Ryu or Wheeler or Bumgarner on a similar value move. But I think any GM given a chance to sign Smith on those terms at this point in the off-season would have had to seriously consider doing so. It does mean less $$ to be spent on other areas of need. But value is value and we can spend some prospect capital if necessary to fill other areas of need.
Pacheaholic
Arizona Fall Leaguer
Imagine being dumb enough to make this douchebag a mod so no one can just ignore his retarded **** posts.