not even sure it's bad luck. he's been injury-prone his entire career. which is why it made even more sense to trade him coming off a healthy, big season. they didn't, and they're paying the price.
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not even sure it's bad luck. he's been injury-prone his entire career. which is why it made even more sense to trade him coming off a healthy, big season. they didn't, and they're paying the price.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Dude... a ruptured testicle is bad luck no matter what way you analyze it. This injury he just had is related to the testicle incident... an abdominal sports hernia trying to work out too hard too early. So yeah, his entire "injury prone" problem is all because he fouled a ball off his sack. That's bad luck.
Southcack77
Well-known member
It's difficult to trade a 4.5 win player with a minimum salary and 4 years of control remaining for a package commensurate with his value.
Very few organizations even have that much surplus value to offer.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
That's when you call the Padres.
he had been injury prone his entire career. sure, the testicle issue was bad luck, but his track record is what it is.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
If we trade for him we should make sure to buy him an umbrella so he doesn't have to worry about falling pianos or anvils.
he was a 27-year old who put up 4.5 WAR one time which was fairly luck driven.
their FO is dumb and thought they could compete. they couldn't. and now his value is probably less than half what it was. valuing him at 4.5 WAR for 4 years would be silly.
CrazyTrain
Well-known member
I'd say so, yes.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
I’m sure it’s been a bust.
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BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Yeah if he were traded last offseason I would have valued him at around ~12 wins over his remaining 4 seasons, so minus the ~25-30 million he'd be owed in arbitration (assuming 9 wins over that time) and he'd still be worth a great deal of surplus value at that number. Definitely could have netted the Mariners an extremely attractive prospect package, but definitely more feasible than valuing him at 18 wins over that time frame.
the Mariners were probably over-valuing him and asking for too much...which is why they're dumb.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I can't really seem to find any significant injury problems before this ruptured testicle fiasco.
Played full healthy seasons in the majors and/or minors in 2013 (his first full year in organized professional baseball - 365 plate appearances), 2014 (317 PA), 2015 (400 PA), 2016 (671 PA), 2017 (458 PA), and 2018 (683 PA)
That doesn't seem like an injury prone guy before he got hit in the sack. The 2014 and 2015 number of plate appearances are right in line with what you'd expect of a new pro ramping up stamina. That's a pretty strong health record up until his testicle turned into an ovary.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
So what would we value him today. 3 season left. I would say maybe 2 this year with a core injury and the unknown with that. And that might be generous. I guess 2 for each year after that. So 6 wins total less the 10-15 million earned. So around 30 mill surplus. Seems like a lot still. What am I missing here.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
The year before in his rookie year he had nearly 300 less plate appearances and still put up 2.5 fWAR... so its really a two year track record as the metrics and numbers were about the exact same extrapolated out. I mean if it was fueled by luck it wasn't a huge boost... he had a .336 BABIP compared with a career average of .317 (and that's with a .257 BABIP in limited playing time in 2019)... his rookie year was right in line with a .338 BABIP
I mean even with all his unlucky testicle problems and recovery issues in 2019, dude still put up a 106 wRC+ even with a .257 BABIP
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i've followed his career for a while. he's consistently had nagging injuries.
in 2014 he missed over a month, and then 3 weeks later in the year.
2015 he missed 3 weeks at the end of the season
healthy 2016, but then was out for a month and half in 2017.
i consider averaging around/over a month missing 3 out of 4 years as injury-prone, but perhaps you don't.
he also consistently carried a high BABIP in the minors. i'm not sure how many players consistently carry a .335+ mark in the majors, tho, and i don't know if his batted ball profile supports that. i'd still side with saying he wouldn't maintain a .336 consistently.
he still has solid value. it's just not what it was after 2018.
Yeah that's around the number i was thinking. Roughly 80-90 million is surplus value. Now, he might have 40-50 million if they're lucky.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Thus far the data shows he's likely to be much closer to a .335 BABIP player than a .257 BABIP... That's really not that ludicrous of a BABIP and suggests he's probably close to a wRC+ of around 120 on average. So 20% above the average hitter with room for more. And that's with average to slightly above average defense
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Some career BABIPs from other players on the Braves:
Freeman: .340
Acuna: .343
Swanson: .301
Albies: .307
Markakis: .316
A Haniger BABIP between .310 and .330 is perfectly reasonable.
Freeman: .340
Acuna: .343
Swanson: .301
Albies: .307
Markakis: .316
A Haniger BABIP between .310 and .330 is perfectly reasonable.