The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Leading disease forecasters, whose research the White House used to conclude 100,000 to 240,000 people will die nationwide from the coronavirus, were mystified when they saw the administration’s projection this week.
The experts said they don’t challenge the numbers’ validity but said they don’t know how the White House arrived at them.
White House officials have refused to explain how they generated the figure — a death toll bigger than the United States suffered in the Vietnam War or the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. They have not provided the underlying data so others can assess its reliability or provided long-term strategies to lower that death count.
Some of President Trump’s top advisers have expressed doubts about the estimate, according to three White House officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. There have been fierce debates inside the White House about its accuracy.
At a task force meeting this week, according to two officials with direct knowledge of it, Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told others there are too many variables at play in the pandemic to make the models reliable: “I’ve looked at all the models. I’ve spent a lot of time on the models. They don’t tell you anything. You can’t really rely upon models.”
Robert Redfield, director of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the vice president’s office have similarly voiced doubts about the projections’ accuracy, the three officials said.
Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University epidemiologist whose models were cited by the White House, said his own work on the pandemic doesn’t go far enough into the future to make predictions akin to the White House fatality forecast.
“We don’t have a sense of what’s going on in the here and now, and we don’t know what people will do in the future,” he said. “We don’t know if the virus is seasonal, as well.”
The estimate appeared to be a rushed affair, said Marc Lipsitch, a leading epidemiologist and director of Harvard University’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. “They contacted us, I think, on a Tuesday a week ago, and asked for answers and feedback by Thursday, basically 24 hours,” he said. “My initial response was we can’t do it that fast. But we ended up providing them some numbers responding to very specific scenarios.”
Other experts noted that the White House didn’t even explain the time period the death estimate supposedly captures — just the coming few months, or the year-plus it will take to deploy a vaccine.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...te-houses-240000-coronavirus-deaths-estimate/
The experts said they don’t challenge the numbers’ validity but said they don’t know how the White House arrived at them.
White House officials have refused to explain how they generated the figure — a death toll bigger than the United States suffered in the Vietnam War or the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. They have not provided the underlying data so others can assess its reliability or provided long-term strategies to lower that death count.
Some of President Trump’s top advisers have expressed doubts about the estimate, according to three White House officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. There have been fierce debates inside the White House about its accuracy.
At a task force meeting this week, according to two officials with direct knowledge of it, Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told others there are too many variables at play in the pandemic to make the models reliable: “I’ve looked at all the models. I’ve spent a lot of time on the models. They don’t tell you anything. You can’t really rely upon models.”
Robert Redfield, director of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the vice president’s office have similarly voiced doubts about the projections’ accuracy, the three officials said.
Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University epidemiologist whose models were cited by the White House, said his own work on the pandemic doesn’t go far enough into the future to make predictions akin to the White House fatality forecast.
“We don’t have a sense of what’s going on in the here and now, and we don’t know what people will do in the future,” he said. “We don’t know if the virus is seasonal, as well.”
The estimate appeared to be a rushed affair, said Marc Lipsitch, a leading epidemiologist and director of Harvard University’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. “They contacted us, I think, on a Tuesday a week ago, and asked for answers and feedback by Thursday, basically 24 hours,” he said. “My initial response was we can’t do it that fast. But we ended up providing them some numbers responding to very specific scenarios.”
Other experts noted that the White House didn’t even explain the time period the death estimate supposedly captures — just the coming few months, or the year-plus it will take to deploy a vaccine.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...te-houses-240000-coronavirus-deaths-estimate/
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
NY alone is already at 1/3 of that.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
Federalism doesn't mean = Federal government does nothing. Even a strong federalist will admit that the Federal Government explicitly exists to handle nationwide problems, but should leave stuff that can be handled locally to the states. If you don't see the difference between the fed. government being asked by the states to do exactly that and "fascism" then I understand why you have such a dumb take on most criticism of Trump.
sturg33
I
I think the states should be left to manage themselves, with the federal government as a last resort.
Not the first.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
If you think there aren't issues that by their very scope demand a national reaction, then you are delusional.
sturg33
I
I dont think Iowa and NYC should react the same to an epidemic.
Guess I'm delusional.
But it sure seems my skepticism has been closer to reality than the end of the worlders. Let's hope I'm right
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Fivethirtyeight has been conducting a weekly survey of experts.
For the specific question how many COVID-19 deaths in 2020 in the United States, the answers range from 71,000 to 1.7 million with an average of 263,000.
The survey has been done 3 times so far and the average number of deaths has gone up from 200,000 to 263,000.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...ase-coronavirus-forecasts-are-very-far-apart/
From the article:
This week, the survey also asked each expert to report the proportion of their responses that comes from experience and intuition rather than from hard models built by themselves or other researchers. On average, 68 percent of each expert’s responses are coming from experience and intuition, with the other 32 percent coming from models.
That a group of expert infectious disease modelers is relying more on their experience and intuition than on hard models is yet more evidence that building a COVID-19 model is a huge, huge challenge.
For the specific question how many COVID-19 deaths in 2020 in the United States, the answers range from 71,000 to 1.7 million with an average of 263,000.
The survey has been done 3 times so far and the average number of deaths has gone up from 200,000 to 263,000.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...ase-coronavirus-forecasts-are-very-far-apart/
From the article:
This week, the survey also asked each expert to report the proportion of their responses that comes from experience and intuition rather than from hard models built by themselves or other researchers. On average, 68 percent of each expert’s responses are coming from experience and intuition, with the other 32 percent coming from models.
That a group of expert infectious disease modelers is relying more on their experience and intuition than on hard models is yet more evidence that building a COVID-19 model is a huge, huge challenge.
Last edited:
sturg33
I
I'll take the under.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
on the 263,000?
I would take the under too. But I wouldn't bet much on it. The big unknown is does it come back in the fall.
We are at 5,000 now with today's total likely over 1,000.
60K in April.
40K in May
50K June-August
Then we keep our fingers crossed we either get a vaccine or it doesn't come back.
Last edited:
You wouldnt take that bet right now?
Why would there be such a large tail?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Why not. It has flared back up in countries that seemed to have it under control. There will always be idiots who feel a need to cram 40 people in a room to hold a corona party. And one of them will be related to a caregiver at a nursing home.
To generate that amount of deaths you would need for large amount of new infection. From the starting point it would take weeks to get to that level and this without masks and planequal/z pac.