The Coronavirus, not the beer

4.3M people a day take the subway.

Lets ignore that I believe the virus has been here since Q4 last year since that is a completely unproven hypothesis.

You still have 2.5 months (March 15th date) of a virus active in a population of 9M people where 4.3M per day take the subway. When the virus was fresh in the population the R naught could have been 10 at that point. Maybe higher.

My counter to that is the first NY fatality was March 14 and we didn't reach 100 NY fatalities until March 24 and didn't move to more than 100 fatalities per day until March 26. I don't see how you could have significant herd immunity in late March without far more people dying.
 
Just curious what your route was.

LIRR to Penn. I either walked to Madison Ave when not at the client site but I worked on Wall Street about 85% of the time and I would take the express 2/3 down to wall street or the local 1 based on when I had time and just wanted to get on the car.

Then there were happy hours to various places in the city or rec league basketball.
 
My counter to that is the first NY fatality was March 14 and we didn't reach 100 NY fatalities until March 24 and didn't move to more than 100 fatalities per day until March 26. I don't see how you could have significant herd immunity in late March.

I get the argument and its a valid one. I have posted stories from doctors who admitted that there were probably a sizeable amount of undentified cases from prior to March. I think its a convincing argument the virus was not here as early as I previously said so it will be hard for me to comment on that. My only counter at this time is that deaths are not predictable and it depends on who is infected and how the infection behaves in their body.
 
I get the argument and its a valid one. I have posted stories from doctors who admitted that there were probably a sizeable amount of undentified cases from prior to March. I think its a convincing argument the virus was not here as early as I previously said so it will be hard for me to comment on that. My only counter at this time is that deaths are not predictable and it depends on who is infected and how the infection behaves in their body.

From a humanitarian perspective it would be great if you were right.

But I think anyone making policy has to be a bit cautious about adopting those assumptions.

And we need more data to understand who is infected, who has antibodies, etc.
 
Dude. States emergency powers dont supercede constitutional rights.

Just bc you're terrified of scary virus doesnt mean you can tell me I cant go to church.

Stop begging for tyranny bc you're afraid


Dude, yes they effing do! (within reason, and acting in good faith of course)

Jacobson v. Massachusetts literally provides legal precedent for this to happen. The Supreme Court ruled that individual liberty must be subordinated to the welfare of the general public, as well as the collective good of the nation. Thus liberty, in relation to public health, may be subordinate to the power of the state.

Please, just stop with your nonsense.
 
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I get the argument and its a valid one. I have posted stories from doctors who admitted that there were probably a sizeable amount of undentified cases from prior to March. I think its a convincing argument the virus was not here as early as I previously said so it will be hard for me to comment on that. My only counter at this time is that deaths are not predictable and it depends on who is infected and how the infection behaves in their body.

I may actually die of shock. But good for you.
 
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I may actually die of shock. But good for you.

thethe's been in an agreeable mood the last 12-24 hours.

Must've boned.

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Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared a nationwide state of emergency, imposing more economy-stifling measures in a country that had mostly avoided them earlier.

The declaration amounted to an acknowledgment that his efforts to keep the country running normally had exposed it to a potential sharp rise in coronavirus infections—a potential lesson for the U.S. and European countries that are weighing when and how to resume everyday activities.

Mr. Abe said he planned legislation to give nearly $1,000 in cash to every person in Japan to counteract the blow from the tighter restrictions, reversing an earlier plan that would have limited payments to some struggling households.

For much of March, stores, restaurants and offices in Japan were largely open as usual, and a three-day weekend, March 20-22, in which many went out to view cherry blossoms appears to have contributed to a rise in infections.

The prime minister has said he hesitated to crack down on everyday business and leisure because of his fears about the economic toll. He switched course on April 7 by declaring a state of emergency in Tokyo and other big cities. Around 80% of the public thought the move came too late, according to a Kyodo News poll.

With the emergency now nationwide, the hit to the Japanese economy is likely to grow more severe. Although it is still a relatively loose step by global standards—businesses aren’t compelled to close, and people aren’t penalized for leaving their homes—many are voluntarily curtailing their activities.

The emergency will continue until at least May 6, covering the Golden Week holidays when many would normally travel on trains and planes around the country.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/japans...ate-of-emergency-11587027219?mod=hp_lead_pos3
 
LIRR to Penn. I either walked to Madison Ave when not at the client site but I worked on Wall Street about 85% of the time and I would take the express 2/3 down to wall street or the local 1 based on when I had time and just wanted to get on the car.

Then there were happy hours to various places in the city or rec league basketball.

I miss NYC so bad. I didn't even get to explore the upper portion of the city or the outer boroughs. I can't wait to go back.
 
I miss NYC so bad. I didn't even get to explore the upper portion of the city or the outer boroughs. I can't wait to go back.

Never lived there so cant comment on what that experience is like. Working is city is awful and couldnt get to long island soon enough.

I do love driving in during non peak times and going out is of course amazing.
 
Was just reading about St. John the Baptist Parish in Louisiana having the highest COVID death rate in the country. Small towns and rural areas may be safer but are not immune.
 
I haven't delved into this. But I have a suspicion that they project hospitalizations and need for ventilators as a multiple of their death projections. Given that their death projections have been much better than their hospitalizations projections, maybe they should have adjusted their multiple as the data came in. If indeed this is the issue.

What could cause the multiple to change? Again I haven't looked into it in any depth so this is just a hunch. It might reflect differences or changes in hospital protocols regarding how sick someone has to be in order to be admitted.

Yeah, pretty much. All the numbers in the IMHE model are back calculated from deaths. The model at first was explicitly using the 11:1 ratio of hospitalizations from China across the board. The then adjusted it down when they had better individual state data. CA had a 10:1 ratio, for example, so there wasn't much adjustment there. NY had a much lower 4.22:1 ratio.

The likely reason for that disparity is that CA has a less stressed system and was admitting less severe cases that might not even get tested in NY, much less admitted.

That should show a reasonable person why "hospitalizations are the only important number" is a dumb thing to say.
 
People dying doesn't have a dramatic impact on the social/economic system in comparison to the residual impact of an overloaded hospital system.

The big fear from the CCP virus was always the hospitalization and why we NEEDED the lockdowns. Saying otherwise now is just dishonest.
 
Sweden reporting 613 new cases (a fairly decent spike from recent days ) and 130 new deaths. The curve is not flattening in Sweden.
 
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