The Coronavirus, not the beer

NYC has .16 death rate already, assuming 100% have it and no one else dies. I'm kind of past the point where I'm gonna even bother taking a lower death rate than that as a serious suggestion.
 
Metaphysicist said:
NYC has .16 death rate already, assuming 100% have it and no one else dies. I'm kind of past the point where I'm gonna even bother taking a lower death rate than that as a serious suggestion.
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Albany, GA likewise is over .1% of their entire population. So theory of "the death rate was always going to be worse in NYC" or "rural areas were never at risk" doesn't hold water either.
 
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Metaphysicist said:
NYC has .16 death rate already, assuming 100% have it and no one else dies. I'm kind of past the point where I'm gonna even bother taking a lower death rate than that as a serious suggestion.
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Already addressed this. Its doesnt kill without bias so the death rate is a reflection of how poorly we do as a society to protect the vulnerable. It will be different all over.
 
The Chosen One said:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/coronavirus-kidney-dialysis-need/index.html

Sounds like the virus is learning us faster than we can learn it.
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"It's taken everyone by surprise because it is acting so different from everything else," said Dr. Sam Parnia, a critical care specialist at New York University Langone Medical Center.
"They are not dying because they can't get enough oxygen. They are actually dying because of other complications and it is predominately due to blood clots."

Just like a bad flu?
 
Does anyone at this point deny that the virus is widespread in proportion to the amount of known cases? I guess now the only thing to determine is how much is that multiple.
 
sturg33 said:
Media is the enemy of the people
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Follow the money. A lot will be revealed in the future about Chinas influence on our political system. Russia was the red herring. It was delivered efficiently through their communication subsidiaries in the US [MSM].
 
thethe said:
Does anyone at this point deny that the virus is widespread in proportion to the amount of known cases? I guess now the only thing to determine is how much is that multiple.
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I would agree with that. Either that or the tests are giving false positives. Wouldn't surprise me if half of NY has is.
 
Its telling how much vitriol is out there on the approach the Swedes take. Its going to make thousands of experts look like fools.
 
I've come to think of the growth rate of new cases as a sort of proxy for R naught. That obviously depends on the testing regimen being fairly stable. If it is not, then obviously changes in testing prevalence will bias the numbers.

Anyhow, here is the ratio of new cases over the past seven days to new cases over the prior seven days for a sample of countries


Italy 0.85
Spain 0.77
Germany 0.62
UK 0.98
France 0.68
Sweden 1.10
Canada 0.99
USA 0.93

The way I think of this, the lower the number the less risk (bigger margin of error if things go badly) from reopening economic and social activities and relaxing social distancing.

Other things can also reduce risk: more testing (including for antibodies), a vigorous tracing program, excess medical care capacity. These factors should also enter in assessing whether a country is "ready" to relax some of the measures introduced to reduce the spread of the virus.

If you are pursuing a different strategy (building up herd immunity) then a different set of considerations apply.
 
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It should always be based on hospitalizations. If the right people are getting the virus then it's fine.
 
The failure by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to quickly produce a test kit for detecting the novel coronavirus was triggered by a glaring scientific breakdown at the CDC’s central laboratory complex in Atlanta, according to scientists with knowledge of the matter and a determination by federal regulators.

The CDC facilities that assembled the kits violated sound manufacturing practices, resulting in contamination of one of the three test components used in the highly sensitive detection process, the scientists said.

“I was just saddened and embarrassed when this test didn’t work out,’’ said James Le Duc, a virologist and former CDC official who now is director of the Galveston National Laboratory in Texas. “It’s really a terrible black mark on the CDC, and the impact was devastating to the country.’’

https://www.washingtonpost.com/inve...7d3824-7139-11ea-aa80-c2470c6b2034_story.html
 
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