The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
And yet they only represent 20% of the NY confirmed COVID deaths. So, are we still saying that only people in nursing homes are at risk?
And again, these excess deaths are occurring during a paradigm shift the world has never seen.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Just wanted to point out something with respect to how quickly the virus spreads without mitigation. Its reproductive cycle is less than ten days. So a reproductive number of 3 means that over a month you are looking at an increase in the number of infected people on the order of 3 cubed. If the reproductive number is 2 it grows by 2 cubed over 30 days. So conservatively it is growing by a factor of 10 per month, which explains why a few days of hesitation over closing subways or ordering people to stay at home can be so deadly.
My own admittedly very rough estimate is we had around 3 million infected people in mid-March. If nothing happened we would have had around 30 million mid-April. However, a lot of things kicked in around mid-March. Spontaneous social distancing. Government mandated measures. So by mid-April we had maybe 5 million infected people instead of 30 million. But to me this difference is what I come to in terms of lives saved. 25 million cases difference is equivalent to 100,000-200,000 extra deaths. It is a number. And that is just one cycle. If you think about the subsequent cycle you have one scenario where your baseline is 25 million infections and a second one where it is 5 million. So the difference in deaths keeps accumulating.
My own admittedly very rough estimate is we had around 3 million infected people in mid-March. If nothing happened we would have had around 30 million mid-April. However, a lot of things kicked in around mid-March. Spontaneous social distancing. Government mandated measures. So by mid-April we had maybe 5 million infected people instead of 30 million. But to me this difference is what I come to in terms of lives saved. 25 million cases difference is equivalent to 100,000-200,000 extra deaths. It is a number. And that is just one cycle. If you think about the subsequent cycle you have one scenario where your baseline is 25 million infections and a second one where it is 5 million. So the difference in deaths keeps accumulating.
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no we are saying the ineptness of democratic leadership inflated the death count.
Nobody has ever said that the virus wasn't deadly for a subset of the population
And that has what to do with the facts I stated?
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
I don't know anyone who wants to be locked down forever.
So Dem leadership is to blame... even though the percentage of deaths in nursing homes in Republican states are far worse than NY?
Percentages are a funny thing with small denominators.
I mean GA has nearly 2k deaths at this point. Florida has over 2k deaths. That's a decent enough sample size for percentage variances to level off.
Would you prefer combining all the Republican states numbers and their nursing home deaths?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Not small at all in this situation.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
But again, that's not true.
Here how about we look outside of the US to a country who's dealt with this before.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1098721/south-korea-coronavirus-confirmed-and-death-number/
South Korea is a country with a plan for epidemics and pandemics.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Says the person who made the argument
You realize this is why no one takes you seriously.
All this means is that all states are not equal in how the virus spread to the general population. In the aggregate democratic leadership caused much more devastation to the nursing home population.
You should have when I said this was overblown on march 24th.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Data update on percentage of tests coming back positive for some states that have reopened:
Florida: 2.6% past seven days vs 3.7% a week ago. Looking good.
Texas: 5.7% down from 5.8% a week ago. Not bad.
Georgia: 5.9% vs 3.9%. Starting to trend up. But some of the recent data look a bit funky.
There are some states where the trends are becoming quite worrisome.
Missouri: 24.4 vs 4.3. Could that be right? I think the trend is up but there may be a data entry problem.
Alabama: 8.7 vs 7.7
Arkansas: 5.8 vs 4.6
South Carolina: 3.6 vs 2.8
Tennessee: 4.7 vs 4.0
West Virginia: 3.3 vs 1.3
In general testing is being increased, which tends to bias the percentage positive down over time.
The 7-day average for the whole country ticked up a couple tenths yesterday. Hopefully, just a blip.
New York: 3.7 vs 5.6. Yeah we learned the hard way not to mess around with this.
Florida: 2.6% past seven days vs 3.7% a week ago. Looking good.
Texas: 5.7% down from 5.8% a week ago. Not bad.
Georgia: 5.9% vs 3.9%. Starting to trend up. But some of the recent data look a bit funky.
There are some states where the trends are becoming quite worrisome.
Missouri: 24.4 vs 4.3. Could that be right? I think the trend is up but there may be a data entry problem.
Alabama: 8.7 vs 7.7
Arkansas: 5.8 vs 4.6
South Carolina: 3.6 vs 2.8
Tennessee: 4.7 vs 4.0
West Virginia: 3.3 vs 1.3
In general testing is being increased, which tends to bias the percentage positive down over time.
The 7-day average for the whole country ticked up a couple tenths yesterday. Hopefully, just a blip.
New York: 3.7 vs 5.6. Yeah we learned the hard way not to mess around with this.
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chop2chip
Well-known member
My wife and I have been staying with her family the last month.
Her sister tested positive yesterday and we are all symptomatic and getting tested today.
Fortunate that so far the worst symptoms for everyone have been similar to a bad flu, so hopefully it doesn’t escalate. It’s still early for us.
Her sister tested positive yesterday and we are all symptomatic and getting tested today.
Fortunate that so far the worst symptoms for everyone have been similar to a bad flu, so hopefully it doesn’t escalate. It’s still early for us.
Prayers for you and your family!
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Sorry to hear tat, hope you all get out te other side well
57Brave
Well-known member
good luck