I'm sure it makes perfect sense that despite case loads increasing over the difference in time periods of the antibodu test that the percentage barely changed.
The Coronavirus, not the beer
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I'm sure it makes perfect sense that despite case loads increasing over the difference in time periods of the antibodu test that the percentage barely changed.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Here is a model of total infections in NY City (with deaths data as the input).
https://covid19-projections.com/us-ny-new-york-city
It estimates cumulative # infected at various points as follows:
April 1: 1.5 million
April 15: 1.87 million
May 1: 2.07 million
May 15 2.15 million
June 1 2.19 million
The growth in infections has slowed a lot since the explosion in March. Not surprisingly the antibodies tests are reflecting that.
For reference, NY City's population is 8.3 million.
It's possible that the antibodies results from mid-April slightly overstated the percentage infected. And it's possible that the recent data understate things slightly.
What's highly unlikely is we went from 20% mid-April to 50% now.
The whole herd immunity strategy founders on some basic hard realities. An IFR of 0.5-1.0% being the main one. There simply aint no way to get to 50% of any population being infected without a whole lot of dying. In the case of NY City, the number of deaths would have to double to get to herd immunity. In Stockholm, the multiple would be 5 given where they currently are in terms of percentage of people infected. For the United States, the multiple of deaths is around 10 to get to herd immunity. Those are tough numbers to contemplate. And yet there are people out there (and I'm not talking about thethe but people who know something about epidemiology) who seem to think it is a viable strategy.
And if we think about the increase in cases and positive % in Arizona, Alabama, Texas and Florida in the past couple weeks, well maybe more of it is younger people and the IFR will be closer to .5% than 1.0%. Maybe. Let's hope so. But even in that situation we are going to see a lot of people dying in those states in the next few weeks.
https://covid19-projections.com/us-ny-new-york-city
It estimates cumulative # infected at various points as follows:
April 1: 1.5 million
April 15: 1.87 million
May 1: 2.07 million
May 15 2.15 million
June 1 2.19 million
The growth in infections has slowed a lot since the explosion in March. Not surprisingly the antibodies tests are reflecting that.
For reference, NY City's population is 8.3 million.
It's possible that the antibodies results from mid-April slightly overstated the percentage infected. And it's possible that the recent data understate things slightly.
What's highly unlikely is we went from 20% mid-April to 50% now.
The whole herd immunity strategy founders on some basic hard realities. An IFR of 0.5-1.0% being the main one. There simply aint no way to get to 50% of any population being infected without a whole lot of dying. In the case of NY City, the number of deaths would have to double to get to herd immunity. In Stockholm, the multiple would be 5 given where they currently are in terms of percentage of people infected. For the United States, the multiple of deaths is around 10 to get to herd immunity. Those are tough numbers to contemplate. And yet there are people out there (and I'm not talking about thethe but people who know something about epidemiology) who seem to think it is a viable strategy.
And if we think about the increase in cases and positive % in Arizona, Alabama, Texas and Florida in the past couple weeks, well maybe more of it is younger people and the IFR will be closer to .5% than 1.0%. Maybe. Let's hope so. But even in that situation we are going to see a lot of people dying in those states in the next few weeks.
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acesfull86
Well-known member
#science
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Since the first case of COVID-19 arrived in Alabama in March, Dr. Donald Williamson, the president of the Alabama Hospital Association, has said he’s confident the state’s hospitals can handle an influx of coronavirus patients.
That changed Tuesday morning, when the state recorded the most COVID-19 patients ever being cared for across the state and, on the same day, had the fewest available intensive care beds since the pandemic began.
“For the first time, I would have to say, I’m growing worried about the system,” Williamson told APR. Before Tuesday, Williamson has expressed concerns about individual hospitals or cities, but not the state as a whole.
On Tuesday, there were 678 COVID-19 patients across the state’s hospitals, 73 of whom were admitted on Tuesday, Williamson said, the largest number of admissions in a single day since the pandemic began.
Of the state’s 1,600 available ICU beds, on Tuesday morning, just 268 were available, the lowest since the COVID-19 crisis began.
“This morning we theoretically had three ICU beds in the Montgomery region,” Williamson said. “The truth is, by the time they get that report, I suspect those beds were filled.”
However, about 58 percent of the state’s supply of ventilators — the lifesaving devices that are so often needed to keep the worst-off COVID-19 patients alive — were available Tuesday morning.
The Tuscaloosa area had a single ICU bed available Tuesday morning, Williamson said.
“I’m worried that in the flu season with COVID-19 not under control, that’s when we potentially create the greatest stress on the system,” Williamson said.
https://www.alreporter.com/2020/06/...beds-on-tuesday-record-high-hospitalizations/
That changed Tuesday morning, when the state recorded the most COVID-19 patients ever being cared for across the state and, on the same day, had the fewest available intensive care beds since the pandemic began.
“For the first time, I would have to say, I’m growing worried about the system,” Williamson told APR. Before Tuesday, Williamson has expressed concerns about individual hospitals or cities, but not the state as a whole.
On Tuesday, there were 678 COVID-19 patients across the state’s hospitals, 73 of whom were admitted on Tuesday, Williamson said, the largest number of admissions in a single day since the pandemic began.
Of the state’s 1,600 available ICU beds, on Tuesday morning, just 268 were available, the lowest since the COVID-19 crisis began.
“This morning we theoretically had three ICU beds in the Montgomery region,” Williamson said. “The truth is, by the time they get that report, I suspect those beds were filled.”
However, about 58 percent of the state’s supply of ventilators — the lifesaving devices that are so often needed to keep the worst-off COVID-19 patients alive — were available Tuesday morning.
The Tuscaloosa area had a single ICU bed available Tuesday morning, Williamson said.
“I’m worried that in the flu season with COVID-19 not under control, that’s when we potentially create the greatest stress on the system,” Williamson said.
https://www.alreporter.com/2020/06/...beds-on-tuesday-record-high-hospitalizations/
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Yep. Recent anti-body testing in Sweden shows they are nowhere near herd immunity, despite their best efforts. These antibody test results also seem to be cohesive with the recent reports that asymptomatic transmission is rare.
If the anti-body tests are a fairly accurate representation of the amount of infected, it would suggests the death rate in Sweden is around .5 as well, and possibly higher.
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sturg33
I
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Germany, UK, Spain, Italy and France in total have the same population as the U.S. As a group, they are as close to a peer group as we have.
Right now they've had more deaths per capita than we have. This mainly reflects the fact that they got hit before we did. We've been closing the gap. We are on a much worse path than they are and there is little doubt that we will finish the year well above them in terms of deaths or deaths per capita. Individually, only the UK appears likely to have a worse outcome than us.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Deaths first 15 days of June:
Germany: 291
Italy: 956
Spain: 667
France: 634
UK: 2,224
Total: 4,772
United States: 10,683
Sweden and the UK will probably end up worse than us in deaths per capita by year end. The other European countries have all done a better job (in some cases much better) of getting on top of things.
We are like the 1996 Jets (1-15 record for those for whom this is an obscure reference). And very poorly chosen one is Rich Kotite. There is lots of blame to go around. We (the people) gave up. Quite a few governors gave up (and have lied or mislead their people about what is going on). And very poorly chosen one has been exactly the buffoon we all know so well by now. The whole thing about masks becoming some sort of ideological flash point shows how sad the state of affairs is in this country.
Germany: 291
Italy: 956
Spain: 667
France: 634
UK: 2,224
Total: 4,772
United States: 10,683
Sweden and the UK will probably end up worse than us in deaths per capita by year end. The other European countries have all done a better job (in some cases much better) of getting on top of things.
We are like the 1996 Jets (1-15 record for those for whom this is an obscure reference). And very poorly chosen one is Rich Kotite. There is lots of blame to go around. We (the people) gave up. Quite a few governors gave up (and have lied or mislead their people about what is going on). And very poorly chosen one has been exactly the buffoon we all know so well by now. The whole thing about masks becoming some sort of ideological flash point shows how sad the state of affairs is in this country.
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Let's be honest here. Blue state buffoonery(particularly New York) is the #1 reason and all other reasons are far behind #1
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
its sad to see the political polarization of wearing masks and saying this is the blue states...just a sad point in our country's history
it doesn't have to be like that...republican governors like DeWine, Baker and Hogan have stepped up and done a very good job
and the republican governor of north Dakota Doug Burgum put it very well I thought
https://www.kctv5.com/coronavirus/w...cle_add6859a-2585-5bc1-a352-ead5a0b09632.html
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really jumping the gun on cases are tragic without knowing the age composition of those cases.
This won't end well for the panic crowd.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
yeah...hopefully its a younger group in Arizona and also doctors are learning a few things about treating the disease
Nice try but New York is directly responsible for many of the Covid strains in America. New York even as late as February/March was saying Trump was overreacting to the virus and to go out have a good time.
won't stop the panic crowd.
Just hope you're all here when the deaths per population metric are much lower than earlier stages of the pandemic.
Cases are a good thing if they are properly allocated.