nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Several heads of state, including our own, have gone with the dont worry it's nothing approach. Hasn't worked out very well for their countries. But hey hysteria...
The Coronavirus, not the beer
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Several heads of state, including our own, have gone with the dont worry it's nothing approach. Hasn't worked out very well for their countries. But hey hysteria...
More lies.
Nursing homes are the story as to why we haven't performed as well as we should have. That is a component of the hysteria because we just weren't honest on the virus lethality
Tapate50
Well-known member
Restaurants don't get paid business income loss or loss of property from their insurance policy for a pandemic. They do get paid after a hurricane in most instances unless they don't spring for flood.
There is a huge difference.
I'd think Texas and Florida having a lot of coastline, and those businesses being shut down for the start of their tourist season would have the largest affect on restaurants in those areas. They are totally dependent on tourism, and until June (in FLA), there was none and no help from insurance.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
That's an interesting hypothesis that would be worth investigating. I used to live in Florida. Isn't the main tourist season winter? For a place like Maine, it's summer. Memorial Day to Labor Day. For Florida I would think the start of peak tourist season would be after Thanksgiving.
I know spring break is also big in Florida. So in a sense they have multiple seasons. As I recall DeSantis kept things open so businesses could rake in some of the money they usually do during spring break.
I'd be curious about how Disney is doing. In Florida, and in other places around the world. My guess would be they aren't doing well anywhere, but probably better in places that have had more success bringing down the rate of infection.
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Tapate50
Well-known member
North Florida is pretty dead until March. So they were closed for half their peak season. They only had the rest of June July August really left.
I'm in Florida every 4-5 weeks. I don't think many would say their peak season is the winter time unless you mean very S Fla.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I used to live in central Florida. A long time ago. I was just a teenager at the time. The only thing that registered in my mind were the Canadian license plates and that was definitely a winter phenomenon. I just did a search on busiest month in Florida. Here is what came up:
The Busiest and Least Crowded Months. The busiest month for tourism in Florida, United States is February, followed by March and January. Prices for hotels and flights will be most expensive during these months, though you can save if you purchase well in advance. Tourists are unlikely to visit Florida in November.
Sounds like January-March might be the peak for visitors, though you might be right about North Florida.
I was just up in Maine. In some ways they caught a break in that cases in the Northeast have dropped sharply ahead of their peak tourist season. I talked to some of the merchants. A lot of them didn't think they would have a season this year. But as cases dropped in April and May, they decided to give it a go. The guy at my favorite lobster shack told me his first couple weeks after Memorial Day were pretty close to what he usually sees.
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Tapate50
Well-known member
Yeah, its dead in the panhandle in those months. Those guys were closed and home for half their season.
Spring break is huge. Those 4 weeks make a lot of money and float lots of folks.
For example the rent in Baytowne Wharf seasonally increases during the March, April, May, June, July months (summer, when tourism is highest) and lowers during the offseason. With none of that most of those places will close, because they make most of their years take then.
They were up after Memorial day because people were dying to get out of the house. The first two days it was open the realty company I use said they had 1700 calls to book and were sold out in 36 hrs. People took anything they could get for the next month.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Spring training is probably a big driver too (not for North Florida). And that ended early. Tourists do come in the dead of summer. Never understood that part. The only part of Florida I can tolerate nowadays is the Keys, and that's really very different from the rest of the state.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Interesting look at how social distancing (measured with cell phone data) has ebbed and flowed in Florida.
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/corona...0200722-nex645ii3ngmnihq6nr7lqa5dy-story.html
This kind of stuff is very hard to model because there is feedback in both directions. Cases feeds back into social distancing. Which in turn feeds back into cases. A system of simultaneous equations, probably non-linear and with lags. For the math geeks out there, there is something called the Gauss-Seidel method that is useful for trying to solve these kinds of systems.
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/corona...0200722-nex645ii3ngmnihq6nr7lqa5dy-story.html
This kind of stuff is very hard to model because there is feedback in both directions. Cases feeds back into social distancing. Which in turn feeds back into cases. A system of simultaneous equations, probably non-linear and with lags. For the math geeks out there, there is something called the Gauss-Seidel method that is useful for trying to solve these kinds of systems.
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Sweden has a higher death per million than we do, despite all of their neighboring countries being outlandishly lower.
Holidays and weeks preceding/following are the big money makers.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
And their economic outcome is not better than their neighbors.
And their neighbors get to travel around Europe for their summer vacations.
No one is coming to Sweden. And no one wants Swedes coming to their countries.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
From the Lancet paper:
There are important limitations with our data, including the fact that at or prior to May 1, 2020, many countries included in our dataset were not yet in the “plateau” or downslope phase of their individual epidemiologic curves, with border restrictions having been introduced only very recently. In the context of COVID-19, it is thought that public health interventions typically require from 2 to 3 weeks to affect outcomes, hence the impact of widespread border restrictions may not have yet been detected in our dataset [38,39]. Additionally, the relative difference in the number of cases in neighboring countries is likely to have a significant impact on whether border closures are effective. Two countries with similar epidemiologic curves and effective social distancing policies may not see a major impact from border closures, whereas two countries with very disparate epidemiologic curves may be more likely to see a significant impact from travel restrictions. In the case of full lockdowns, such a government policy may only be effective in those countries where it can be easily implemented and enforced. For example, the United States has had challenges enforcing lockdowns, with citizens in several states publicly protesting public health measures to limit viral transmission, and encouraging open revolt [40].
I would also offer as an observation that a simple comparison between countries that did full lockdowns versus those that didn't might yield some misleading results. One reason for this is countries that are hit hard by the initial wave of infections are more likely to lock down. This will make it appear that there is a positive relationship between locking down and the mortality rates. It is a tricky thing to analyze. There have been some papers that analyze this using time series data. I think that approach has a better chance of accurately measuring the impact of various interventions. But even those papers have some problems. Scientists will sometimes make the point that nature yields her secrets grudgingly. They are used to working in a world where knowledge accumulates gradually, with initial findings over a period of time either being confirmed or discarded by new data and analysis. But the world wants to know about covid-19 as fast as possible. Those two realities have been colliding in an interesting way during the past few months.
There are important limitations with our data, including the fact that at or prior to May 1, 2020, many countries included in our dataset were not yet in the “plateau” or downslope phase of their individual epidemiologic curves, with border restrictions having been introduced only very recently. In the context of COVID-19, it is thought that public health interventions typically require from 2 to 3 weeks to affect outcomes, hence the impact of widespread border restrictions may not have yet been detected in our dataset [38,39]. Additionally, the relative difference in the number of cases in neighboring countries is likely to have a significant impact on whether border closures are effective. Two countries with similar epidemiologic curves and effective social distancing policies may not see a major impact from border closures, whereas two countries with very disparate epidemiologic curves may be more likely to see a significant impact from travel restrictions. In the case of full lockdowns, such a government policy may only be effective in those countries where it can be easily implemented and enforced. For example, the United States has had challenges enforcing lockdowns, with citizens in several states publicly protesting public health measures to limit viral transmission, and encouraging open revolt [40].
I would also offer as an observation that a simple comparison between countries that did full lockdowns versus those that didn't might yield some misleading results. One reason for this is countries that are hit hard by the initial wave of infections are more likely to lock down. This will make it appear that there is a positive relationship between locking down and the mortality rates. It is a tricky thing to analyze. There have been some papers that analyze this using time series data. I think that approach has a better chance of accurately measuring the impact of various interventions. But even those papers have some problems. Scientists will sometimes make the point that nature yields her secrets grudgingly. They are used to working in a world where knowledge accumulates gradually, with initial findings over a period of time either being confirmed or discarded by new data and analysis. But the world wants to know about covid-19 as fast as possible. Those two realities have been colliding in an interesting way during the past few months.
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb has ordered Hoosiers to wear masks in public.
Holcomb’s order requires all residents 8 years or older to wear masks in public spaces. Exemptions include for medical purposes, when exercising or when eating and drinking, Holcomb said.
The order begins Monday.
Anyone who does not wear a face covering in public could face a Class B misdemeanor, Holcomb said.
https://www.wane.com/news/indiana/indiana-governor-requires-hoosiers-wear-masks-in-public/
Holcomb’s order requires all residents 8 years or older to wear masks in public spaces. Exemptions include for medical purposes, when exercising or when eating and drinking, Holcomb said.
The order begins Monday.
Anyone who does not wear a face covering in public could face a Class B misdemeanor, Holcomb said.
https://www.wane.com/news/indiana/indiana-governor-requires-hoosiers-wear-masks-in-public/