GDT 8/18/20 - Squashing the Gnats again

Under the heading of things I'd rather not hear.

"The Braves are down to their final out and it's Johan Camargo."
 
I feel like if Pache starts tonight we win this game.

I hope to see Ender in LF Pache in CF and Duvall in RF tomorrow
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Not worthless. But should only be used as a pinch hitting specialist, never a starter.
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Gotta disagree, he's useless. There's this lingering belief that he crushes RHP but that's not the case. He had a .757 OPS against right handers last year. His OBP against righties was a pathetic .289.

About all you can say for him is that when he did get a hit it tended to go a long way. He had 16 homers against right handers but that really can't outweigh how utterly useless he was when he didn't hit a HR. You have to be a special kind of bad to hit 16 HRs against right handers in 270 PAs and still have a mediocre .757 OPS against them.

Now Adams is a year older and looks even worse. It's a SSS of 37 PAs but his OPS against right handers is a measly .412.

Adams doesn't walk (just a 6% last year and 2.5% this year), he doesn't hit for average (so he rarely gets on base), he doesn't field well, he doesn't run well, he has no versatility, and he strikes out a ton. If he walked some, if he could play a couple positions, if he brought anything else to the team he'd have some value. He doesn't and so he's worthless.

He was a negative WAR player last year and is a -0.4 WAR this year so far. He has no business being on the roster.
 
striker42 said:
Gotta disagree, he's useless. There's this lingering belief that he crushes RHP but that's not the case. He had a .757 OPS against right handers last year. His OBP against righties was a pathetic .289.

About all you can say for him is that when he did get a hit it tended to go a long way. He had 16 homers against right handers but that really can't outweigh how utterly useless he was when he didn't hit a HR. You have to be a special kind of bad to hit 16 HRs against right handers in 270 PAs and still have a mediocre .757 OPS against them.

Now Adams is a year older and looks even worse. It's a SSS of 37 PAs but his OPS against right handers is a measly .412.

Adams doesn't walk (just a 6% last year and 2.5% this year), he doesn't hit for average (so he rarely gets on base), he doesn't field well, he doesn't run well, he has no versatility, and he strikes out a ton. If he walked some, if he could play a couple positions, if he brought anything else to the team he'd have some value. He doesn't and so he's worthless.

He was a negative WAR player last year and is a -0.4 WAR this year so far. He has no business being on the roster.
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I didn’t say he was ideal. But if a RHP is throwing in the 8th and Johan is due. I would probably rather have Adam hit there. Once everyone is healthy we hopefully won’t have to worry about it.
 
Enscheff said:
I’ll post tomorrow and we’ll see who’s right.

The hardest hit ball should have been caught in RF.
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Turner (triple) - 96.6 mph....should have been caught
Eaton (single) - 98.7 mph...solid single the other way
Soto (single) - 77.4 mph...dribbler down the 3B line
Cabrera (single) - 89.4 mph...weak line drive up the middle
Suszuki (K) - on 3 pitches
Garcia (single) - 61.3 mph...check swing bloop single
Gomes (single) - 102.4 mph...the only real rocket of the inning

So yeah, guys weren't exactly teeing off on Matzek, and one of the 3 hardest hit balls should have been caught. Fair luck would have seen him out of the inning after striking out Suzuki, or fooling Garcia.

I suppose Matzek is trash now though, right?
 
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Enscheff said:
Turner (triple) - 96.6 mph....should have been caught
Eaton (single) - 98.7 mph...solid single the other way
Soto (single) - 77.4 mph...dribbler down the 3B line
Cabrera (single) - 89.4 mph...weak line drive up the middle
Suszuki (K) - on 3 pitches
Garcia (single) - 61.3 mph...check swing bloop single
Gomes (single) - 102.4 mph...the only real rocket of the inning

So yeah, guys weren't exactly teeing off on Matzek, and one of the 3 hardest hit balls should have been caught.

I suppose Matzek is trash now though, right?
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I didn’t watch the game or read this thread. But I hope no one is calling him trash. I saw his line and just figured he was off last night or maybe a bit tired from a lot of work. Looks like a bit of bad luck and or bad D
 
Enscheff said:
Turner (triple) - 96.6 mph....should have been caught
Eaton (single) - 98.7 mph...solid single the other way
Soto (single) - 77.4 mph...dribbler down the 3B line
Cabrera (single) - 89.4 mph...weak line drive up the middle
Suszuki (K) - on 3 pitches
Garcia (single) - 61.3 mph...check swing bloop single
Gomes (single) - 102.4 mph...the only real rocket of the inning

So yeah, guys weren't exactly teeing off on Matzek, and one of the 3 hardest hit balls should have been caught. Fair luck would have seen him out of the inning after striking out Suzuki, or fooling Garcia.

I suppose Matzek is trash now though, right?
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I guess you're right. Seems you'd need another reference point like each player's avg EV. I don't care enough to look it up though... whatever, matzek was good.
 
striker42 said:
Matt Adams is pretty worthless. It's baffling to me why he's still on the club.
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he's not good. That is why we go him after the mets-those mets-released him.

The issue is we have a million injuries and even when whole struggle vs RH pitchers.

Many folks have been clamoring for a legit bat vs RHP. That's why we went after Puig. It's why many want Kyle Seager.

I'm not sure who's available but i hope there is a replacement out there. Especially since Ozuna is a bat I want in the lineup but I never want to see him in the field again.
 
I’m not sure that people understand that we were getting pretty fortunate early in the season with our BABIP with RISP. That evening out plus the thinning of the lineup gets you the results you’re seeing now. It’s frustrating, but it’s not supernatural.
 
Enscheff said:
95% catch probability on that play? I think I know what I’ll be researching tomorrow.
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.905 xBA
3.515 xSLG

This batted ball almost always ends up as a massive bit of offense.

The ball traveled about 400', and according to Statcast Robles was playing at 325' deep. He ran somewhere between 75' and 100' to make this catch.

https://www.mlb.com/news/statcast-introduces-catch-probability-for-2017-c217802340

They are attempting to account for direction and the wall now, so that doesn't explain a 95% value.

Unfortunately, the slick tools at the bottom of Robles' page doesn't include 2020 plays yet. so I can't figure out how to see the Catch Probability for that particular play. I would be surprised it it was 95% though.

Needless to say, Riley got bit bad by terrible baseball luck there.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I didn’t watch the game or read this thread. But I hope no one is calling him trash. I saw his line and just figured he was off last night or maybe a bit tired from a lot of work. Looks like a bit of bad luck and or bad D
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Just the crap that happens sometimes in baseball games. That's why stats like xwOBA exist to tell us a pitcher's true talent.
 
msstate7 said:
I guess you're right. Seems you'd need another reference point like each player's avg EV. I don't care enough to look it up though... whatever, matzek was good.
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I mean, the inning should have gone

fly out
single
ground out (perhaps GIDP, inning over...perhaps runner to 2b)
single (runner to 2nd...perhaps 1 run scores if Turner moved to 2b on Soto's grounder)
K (inning over)
anything but a single (if something else flukey happened like an infield single for Soto)

So a missed catch in the OF, and 2 fluke hits with a K sandwiched in between, then a bolt by the 7th batter of the inning. I don't think it takes any amount of imagination to see why that should have been a 1 run inning at worst with normal luck.
 
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