2020 Trade Deadline Thread

[50PoundHead]

Assuming Gausman isn't a candidate as a "generic arm", what about Alex Cobb? Hadn't realized how much of his money was deferred. If they'd eat his 2023-2032 deferrals ($18 million) and take Ender back, would you give them Wilson or more for him? Ender wouldn't hurt them as the clubhouse veteran presence next season. They could platoon him with Hays with Santander and Mancini on the corners and would make Nunez or Mountcastle a full-time 1B with the other one platooning with Davis at DH.

There's your veteran innings-eater for both this year and next without spending much prospect capital or adding a ton of salary.

If you could then pivot and put together a package good enough to land Lynn you're looking at a playoff rotation of Lynn/Fried/Cobb/Hamels/Anderson and a 2021 rotation of Lynn/Fried/Soroka/Cobb/Anderson.

Bowman's latest article says "they've" (careful not to attribute the quote to AA) indicated they're looking at Pitchers with expiring contracts. That's great in a bubble, but sure limits the options and would make it much easier than usual to pin down who he's targeting. Who's out there on an expiring deal other than Gausman, Perez, and Minor unless you consider guys like Boyd who are arbitration-eligible as being on an expiring contract?

Cobb to the Braves for Ynoa was a suggested trade in a non-Bowman article earlier in the week at mlb.com. Don't know how I feel about that one. I'm not big on Perez, but I think anyone on an expiring contract that can eat innings will be on the radar.

 

[clvclv]

Cobb to the Braves for Ynoa was a suggested trade in a non-Bowman article earlier in the week at mlb.com. Don't know how I feel about that one. I'm not big on Perez, but I think anyone on an expiring contract that can eat innings will be on the radar.

Think I could get even more behind that one - assuming we could include Ender and/or they eat some money. It's fairly obvious that AA's probably not going all-in, but for someone still dreaming about that it leaves you Wilson or Touki to pair with Folty in a deal for Seager and Wilson or Touki to pair with Wright in a deal for Lynn.

No chance that all that happens, but I honestly believe if you could add Seager to this offense and Lynn and Cobb to go with Fried and Anderson that this group would have a legitimate chance to knock off the Dodgers and whomever comes out of the AL this year and be one of (if not the) favorites to win in 2021. That eats up a lot of pitching depth, but still leaves you with Weigel, Davidson, Muller, De La Cruz, and Shuster as potential Opener/piggyback options if not more. Plug one of them (likely Weigel) in in Jackson's role next year to save a little money and give Greene's innings to O'Day and keep the other guys stretched out in Gwinnett.

 

[Southcack77]

Let me ask a basic question about arbitration.

What is the likely impact on Folty's arb award after a disaster of a year like this one? I understand he might be non-tendered, but if he chose to go to a hearing after a completely lost season what is the likely result?

 

[Skeeter31]

Let me ask a basic question about arbitration.

What is the likely impact on Folty's arb award after a disaster of a year like this one? I understand he might be non-tendered, but if he chose to go to a hearing after a completely lost season what is the likely result?

I think he would definitely be awarded a much lower contract than what he currently has. But I’d put the chances of him being offered arb for next season at about 0.0001%.

 

[thewupk]

Let me ask a basic question about arbitration.

What is the likely impact on Folty's arb award after a disaster of a year like this one? I understand he might be non-tendered, but if he chose to go to a hearing after a completely lost season what is the likely result?

The most a salary can be reduced in arbitration is 20%.

 

[Southcack77]

The most a salary can be reduced in arbitration is 20%.

So that would be a minimum salary of 5.14m for Folty.

How often do arb salaries go backwards for a player who has had as much success in his past as Folty?

 

[50PoundHead]

Think I could get even more behind that one - assuming we could include Ender and/or they eat some money. It's fairly obvious that AA's probably not going all-in, but for someone still dreaming about that it leaves you Wilson or Touki to pair with Folty in a deal for Seager and Wilson or Touki to pair with Wright in a deal for Lynn.

No chance that all that happens, but I honestly believe if you could add Seager to this offense and Lynn and Cobb to go with Fried and Anderson that this group would have a legitimate chance to knock off the Dodgers and whomever comes out of the AL this year and be one of (if not the) favorites to win in 2021. That eats up a lot of pitching depth, but still leaves you with Weigel, Davidson, Muller, De La Cruz, and Shuster as potential Opener/piggyback options if not more. Plug one of them (likely Weigel) in in Jackson's role next year to save a little money and give Greene's innings to O'Day and keep the other guys stretched out in Gwinnett.

I like Ynoa a lot more than I like Wilson at this point.

 

[clvclv]

So that would be a minimum salary of 5.14m for Folty.

How often do arb salaries go backwards for a player who has had as much success in his past as Folty?

Not very, but if he were sent to someone in a cost-cutting move they'd have the better part of a month to work with and get a long look at him. If he fought whatever number they put on him, he likely doesn't get much of a raise if any. When you consider that guys like Gausman and Julio got $9 million on one-year deals last winter, getting a guy with Folty's upside for ~ $6.5 million wouldn't be a bad deal - especially for a rebuilding team.

 

[clvclv]

Holland was the other name on an expiring deal that I couldn't come up with earlier. Have to expect him to be moved relatively quickly since the Pirates moved Dyson - too bad we don't have any International Pool money to deal - thanks Coppy!!!

 

[TheBravos]

Holland was the other name on an expiring deal that I couldn't come up with earlier. Have to expect him to be moved relatively quickly since the Pirates moved Dyson - too bad we don't have any International Pool money to deal - thanks Coppy!!!

How in the world did MLB hit us so hard compared to everyone else’s penalties. Still blows my mind.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

How in the world did MLB hit us so hard compared to everyone else’s penalties. Still blows my mind.

MLB couldn't directly go hard after two icons of the game in JS and Hart. So they went after the franchise. Coppy and his henchmen got theirs in other ways. Only thing that makes sense.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

why does he have value?
He's 33. He is owed 18.5 million next year and if he's traded he gets a player option at 15 million the next year. Covid is hurting teams. Labor disputes are coming. How many people want to pay Seager that kind of money?

He is an avg defender at best and getting older.

His current OPS is 875, love it. Last year 784. 2018 637. 2017 773. 2016 858. 2015 779.

He is essentially a league average 3B. How many playoff teams want a 3B? He is providing zero value to the Mariners now. They should trade him, put comargo at third, get a better draft pick and reallocate that money.

If they get a better offer, fine. He's not a guy they are going to get a draft pick for in compensation when he leaves at 35 years old.

Seager had some nagging injuries and bad habits that led to a subpar 2018. He did a lot of work to reboot. Beyond that, he's been between 3-7 WAR for his entire career, the better part of a decade.

He's paid in the upper teens. Using the $8M/WAR thumbnail, that's not outrageous.

The guys you cited are all the most recent and spectacular failures from Atlanta - guys about to wash out because they can't find home plate or can't put the bat on the ball. While Seager doesn't warrant the organization's top prospect, they're not going to take back trash.

By the way, if we got him you'd love him. Very consistent, good clubhouse guy, fields his position well, good power. Not a HOFer, but a good player who would lengthen our lineup and get away from the 3B black hole.

 

[TheBravos]

MLB couldn't directly go hard after two icons of the game in JS and Hart. So they went after the franchise. Coppy and his henchmen got theirs in other ways. Only thing that makes sense.

I’d say banning Coppy, losing the players we signed, and maybe one year of international penalties was severe. Being it’s almost 2021 and we are STILL being handcuffed by international penalties is just mind boggling.

There are teams that actually won a WS from cheating. It doesn’t look like any of those guys we signed and lost will even pan out so far. Way less on the “cheating” meter. It’s a joke.

 

[Southcack77]

Not very, but if he were sent to someone in a cost-cutting move they'd have the better part of a month to work with and get a long look at him. If he fought whatever number they put on him, he likely doesn't get much of a raise if any. When you consider that guys like Gausman and Julio got $9 million on one-year deals last winter, getting a guy with Folty's upside for ~ $6.5 million wouldn't be a bad deal - especially for a rebuilding team.

I think the issue is that no one would sign Folty to a 6.5m dollar deal if he were on the free agent market.

A lot of teams would probably be willing to take a flyer at a low price.

 

[Russ2dollas]

Seager had some nagging injuries and bad habits that led to a subpar 2018. He did a lot of work to reboot. Beyond that, he's been between 3-7 WAR for his entire career, the better part of a decade.

He's paid in the upper teens. Using the $8M/WAR thumbnail, that's not outrageous.

The guys you cited are all the most recent and spectacular failures from Atlanta - guys about to wash out because they can't find home plate or can't put the bat on the ball. While Seager doesn't warrant the organization's top prospect, they're not going to take back trash.

By the way, if we got him you'd love him. Very consistent, good clubhouse guy, fields his position well, good power. Not a HOFer, but a good player who would lengthen our lineup and get away from the 3B black hole.

if he's this year and next year I definitely want him. If he is owed 15 million the next year, I'm not so sure.

I just don't think he has much value to mariners. 3B is an area of need for the Nats, Brewers and Blue Jays. Maybe those guys make it a bidding war.

I just don't think we should have to give up much to get him. Not much surplus value. Getting older. Owners are scared to spend money this year and next year.

If they paid his way, then I think you have to give up one of our catchers. If we pay his way I just don't see much surplus value other than it's a seller's market.

 

[Southcack77]

Seager had some nagging injuries and bad habits that led to a subpar 2018. He did a lot of work to reboot. Beyond that, he's been between 3-7 WAR for his entire career, the better part of a decade.

He's paid in the upper teens. Using the $8M/WAR thumbnail, that's not outrageous.

The guys you cited are all the most recent and spectacular failures from Atlanta - guys about to wash out because they can't find home plate or can't put the bat on the ball. While Seager doesn't warrant the organization's top prospect, they're not going to take back trash.

By the way, if we got him you'd love him. Very consistent, good clubhouse guy, fields his position well, good power. Not a HOFer, but a good player who would lengthen our lineup and get away from the 3B black hole.

If he gets traded he'd have 2yr/33m left. That's not awful.

 

[MadduxFanII]

There's always something to be said for strengthening a strength. Acquire Seager, and assuming full recovery and health for Albies, and you have a really deep, dangerous lineup. Obviously this team needs starting pitching like a man stranded in the desert needs drinking water, but winning a playoff game 7-6 works just as well as winning one 3-2.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

There's always something to be said for strengthening a strength. Acquire Seager, and assuming full recovery and health for Albies, and you have a really deep, dangerous lineup. Obviously this team needs starting pitching like a man stranded in the desert needs drinking water, but winning a playoff game 7-6 works just as well as winning one 3-2.

Winning 7-2 is less stressful though.

 

[Russ2dollas]

There's always something to be said for strengthening a strength. Acquire Seager, and assuming full recovery and health for Albies, and you have a really deep, dangerous lineup. Obviously this team needs starting pitching like a man stranded in the desert needs drinking water, but winning a playoff game 7-6 works just as well as winning one 3-2.

I agree.

I think pitching is going to be stupid expensive. I don't think I'll like the cost for Lynn or anyone that moves the needle.

So you get a 1 WAR inning eater. Or maybe more Pen guys and take advantage of expanded rosters.

So if you can't upgrade your biggest need in starting pitching without making a long term mistake, make the line up better. Have to win the Fried game. Try to win the Anderson game 5-4. Hope you can win one of the next two game by scoring 7+.

The question isn't is Seager better. The question is what does he cost? I got into this because I said there is no way I'd give up any of Pache, Waters, or either catcher for him. That doesn't mean I don't want him.

 

[clvclv]

I think the issue is that no one would sign Folty to a 6.5m dollar deal if he were on the free agent market.

A lot of teams would probably be willing to take a flyer at a low price.

Maybe, maybe not - but that misses the point. IF Seattle wanted Seager off the books and wanted Touki enough it's a "take it or leave it" situation. You tell DiPoto that there's no way we can afford to fit Seager onto our books this year unless he takes one of Folty or Ender back. My assumption is that DiPoto would prefer Folty in that situation since he wouldn't have to pay him a dime next season if he chooses not to.

Since everything that goes on in Gwinnett these days is a State Secret, Folty goes to their alternate site for a few weeks and DiPoto gets his eyes on him and decides whether he's worth the $6.5 million to them without having to bid against anybody for him. Maybe he watches him for 3 weeks and decides he's worth $4 million to them. They non-tender him with much more information about where his arm and head are than anyone else has when teams start to bid on free-agents. If he doesn't pitch for them after the trade, the last thing other teams have seen from him is the start that got him sent down.

If he wows them, they can keep him. If not, they got enough of a feel for him to make a decision to make him an offer as a free-agent much easier to make.