Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[50PoundHead]

You gotta just pick the right peachtree and you are fine.

Admittedly, the aftermath of Zeta knocked down a bunch of trees and knocked out a bunch of traffic lights. But I was surprised at how many two-lane streets are really busy thoroughfares. I spent most of the time in Inman Park and the Old Fourth Ward and it appears as though little has changed since the invention of the automobile.

 

[50PoundHead]

MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Projections:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com


Notable:

Ozuna Nationals. Four years, $72MM. 18 AAV.

Brantley Braves. Two years, $28MM. 14 AAV.

Lester Braves. One year, $5MM.

Mark Melancon – Braves. One year, $4MM.

I could definitely be wrong (as I have often been in the past), but the contract numbers for most of the players in the article beyond these four are a bit too high (way too high in many cases).

 

[MadduxFanII]

Geez, if Marcell can get four years at an AAV of $18 million he should grab that so hard he squeezes the life out of it.

 

[Southcack77]

Kiley McDaniel apparently has his list up at ESPN+.

I don't subscribe so I will just complain sadly about ESPN vanishing guys who I really liked reading.

I know, pay the money, but I feel like they often have their folks write less and less interestingly at that. It just never has been particularly worth it. And they used to insist on sending you their awful magazine too.

 

[Southcack77]

From Brad Rowland Twitter:

ESPN projections for Braves free agents:

Ozuna -- 3 years, $60 million

Melancon -- 1 year, $4 million (!)

Greene -- 1 year, $3 million

Hamels -- 1 year, $3 million

Flowers -- 1 year, $3 million

(if ATL could get Melancon and Greene back for $7 million total, they should)

 

[Dalyn]

From Brad Rowland Twitter:

ESPN projections for Braves free agents:

Ozuna -- 3 years, $60 million

Melancon -- 1 year, $4 million (!)

Greene -- 1 year, $3 million

Hamels -- 1 year, $3 million

Flowers -- 1 year, $3 million

(if ATL could get Melancon and Greene back for $7 million total, they should)

I'd take Hamels at 3, too.

 

[Enscheff]

Brantley Braves. Two years, $28MM. 14 AAV.

Lester Braves. One year, $5MM.

Mark Melancon – Braves. One year, $4MM.

If the DH isn't in play for 2021 then this is very close to what I expect the Braves to do. Maybe not the exact names, but the exact plan and total cash outlay.

If the DH is in play they will need to add another bat, though I have no idea what resources they have to pay him.

 

[Carp]

MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Projections:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com


Notable:

Ozuna Nationals. Four years, $72MM. 18 AAV.

Brantley Braves. Two years, $28MM. 14 AAV.

Lester Braves. One year, $5MM.

Mark Melancon – Braves. One year, $4MM.




Some other numbers I like:

Justin Turner – Dodgers. Two years, $24MM. 12 AAV.

Joc Pederson – Cardinals. Two years, $18MM. 9 AAV.

Charlie Morton – Mets. One year, $8MM.



Names to watch:

Jackie Bradley Jr. – Astros. Two years, $16MM. 8 AAV. Bear with me. Decent LH split, can cover any OF position including excellent defense in CF to stave off Pache. A little bit too much money, but a prime reason why extending Ender was unwise. There are always defensive options available in the price range.

Garrett Richards – Phillies. Two years, $16MM. 8 AAV.
Mike Minor – Angels. One year, $6MM.
Chris Archer – Cubs. One year, $4MM.
Cole Hamels – Padres. One year, $4MM.
Adam Wainwright – Cardinals. One year, $6MM.

Kirby Yates – Padres. One year, $5MM.
Brad Hand – Astros. Two years, $14MM. 7 AAV

I imagine there is almost zero chance Morton signs with NY. I imagine he'lll either be in Tampa or Atl or retired. He almost retired after 2018, despite coming off his best season. Also, if we go with Lester for 5 million over Morton for 8 million, we effed up big time. If we're going for washed up former CY winners who grew up in the Braves network region, we should just sign Kluber.

 

[clvclv]

If the DH isn't in play for 2021 then this is very close to what I expect the Braves to do. Maybe not the exact names, but the exact plan and total cash outlay.

If the DH is in play they will need to add another bat, though I have no idea what resources they have to pay him.

Agreed 100%. Although with Waters close, I'm not sure I don't like the thought of trading for Rosario (assuming they're going to non-tender him anyway and he doesn't cost much) a little better. While it only saves ~ $3 million for 2021, that money could...

1.) Land you a platoon partner for Riley, or
2.) Bring Greene back (or another RP) so the entire pen stays intact, or
3.) Bring Flowers back (or be used on another backup C) in the event they want Contreras to simmer for one more year.

(That also leaves Brantley's projected $14 million 2022 salary available in the event of a Freeman extension.)

 

[Hudson2]

I don’t see Bauer or anybody getting 30+ per year in this market. Teams are gonna be scared to spend that kind of money. If the Dodgers had lost the WS they would of had more pressure on them but not now.

 

[Southcack77]

If the DH isn't in play for 2021 then this is very close to what I expect the Braves to do. Maybe not the exact names, but the exact plan and total cash outlay.

If the DH is in play they will need to add another bat, though I have no idea what resources they have to pay him.

Probably some kind of platoon involving a Mitch Moreland type.

 

[Southcack77]

I imagine there is almost zero chance Morton signs with NY. I imagine he'lll either be in Tampa or Atl or retired. He almost retired after 2018, despite coming off his best season. Also, if we go with Lester for 5 million over Morton for 8 million, we effed up big time. If we're going for washed up former CY winners who grew up in the Braves network region, we should just sign Kluber.

Morton would be my #1 semi-realistic target. One of the few who could possibly be an upgrade for a reasonable dollar amount. But 8-10m is still a lot for a starting pitcher given the Braves lineup needs and a theoretical budget of 30-35m.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

I don't think, other than the $3M lightning-in-a-bottle bargain acquisition, that we are going to spend money on pitching. In fact, I would not be surprised if we don't spend money at all.

 

[clvclv]

I think giving Stroman the QO is a pretty good indication that he'll be pitching for the Mets next season. Same with Gausman and the Giants.

I predicted a flood of guys hitting the open market and the teams not picking up options is the first wave. We still have the non-tenders coming up. The market is going to be flooded, which might be a heyday for bargain hunters, but we really won't know that until the big market teams set the price on the top end guys. Like others have said, I think we're going to see a ton of one-year deals for reasonable AAVs, but if the big market teams put the stake in the ground at the border of unreasonable, it's going to be a late-breaking market.

Carp mentioned above the possibility of players having a work stoppage. If salaries tank and if CoVID sticks around into 2021, we may see another truncated season anyway. With negotiations on the new CBA around the corner, nothing would surprise me.

As per Eddie Rosario, I'd be a bit beware. He's kind of a nickel-brain. Discounting his horrible 2020, Joc Pederson is the better offensive player, but it is true that one needs a platoon partner with him.

On another note, just was in Atlanta over the weekend and WTF is with your guys' street system?

That's the driving factor for my preference of Rosario or Brantley over the other options - either of those guys can hold down LF alone. That allows you to revisit the Duvall/Inciarte platoon while gaming Pache's clock. If that's going well after you've gained the extra control over Pache, Acuna can slide back over to RF full time and you can platoon Ender/Pache and Duvall/Rosario or Brantley. Since Ender's "dead money", AA can't really go out and sign platoon partners for BOTH Duvall and Riley if he's going to plug all the holes.

As for "nickel-brains", I'm not particularly concerned about that anymore. The last two guys brought in to "protect" Freddie were well-known quirky personality guys, and AA wasn't overly concerned with them OR adding Puig to the mix before his COVID snafu. If Snit has proven he's really good at ANYTHING, it's that he's very good at getting a diverse group of different personalities to put everything else aside when it's time to go to work. I'm fairly confident that AA can bring in anyone that makes sense from a financial standpoint and they'll fit in as long as they want to win above all else.

 

[Enscheff]

I don’t see Bauer or anybody getting 30+ per year in this market. Teams are gonna be scared to spend that kind of money. If the Dodgers had lost the WS they would of had more pressure on them but not now.

Their predictions certainly seem to be ignoring the possibility no teams have any money. They discounted the BP arms, but not really anyone else.

 

[Heyward]

I could see Bauer get 30 mil, but for one year. Not multi year in this market. But Dodgers do have alot of money off the books and no real long-term deals on their books except Mookie, so they could do that.

 

[Enscheff]

bravesfansince1966
2:41 I dissagree with Ozuna's so called shabby OF work this year. I watched every Braves game and he played a very passable LF. In fact he played it better some of the regular Left Fielders in both leagues!
Tim Dierkes
2:42 That may be so. He mostly gets static over his arm, so for him to play an acceptable LF for one year is reasonable enough.

We need this guy and his keen scouting eye on this board!

 

[thewupk]

So Freeman obviously made it among the 3 finalists for NL MVP. Kind of surprised Machado is in there instead of Tatis.

 

[clvclv]

So Freeman obviously made it among the 3 finalists for NL MVP. Kind of surprised Machado is in there instead of Tatis.

Only watching from afar (as I assume most of us did), it did seem as though Tatis' performance visibly tailed off in the "second half" of 2020 while Machado got hotter (and was much more consistent overall). If you had to pick the one of them that closed stronger - so his recent performance was fresher in voters minds - to put up against Freddie, that would seem to make some sense.

Of course in a season that lasted two months, I'm not sure you're far enough away from the time that a player who STARTED the year on an extended tear for voters to have forgotten it unless that player goes ice cold. Batting average isn't good for a lot, but it's at least worth noting that Tatis hit .236 over his last 30 games.

 

[thewupk]

Only watching from afar (as I assume most of us did), it did seem as though Tatis' performance visibly tailed off in the "second half" of 2020 while Machado got hotter (and was much more consistent overall). If you had to pick the one of them that closed stronger - so his recent performance was fresher in voters minds - to put up against Freddie, that would seem to make some sense.

Of course in a season that lasted two months, I'm not sure you're far enough away from the time that a player who STARTED the year on an extended tear for voters to have forgotten it unless that player goes ice cold. Batting average isn't good for a lot, but it's at least worth noting that Tatis hit .236 over his last 30 games.

Oh I would have picked Machado too. Tatis struggled bad to end the season. But with the hype of Tatis I'm surprised most voters picked up on this.

And I'm guessing these 3 finalists are just the top 3 vote getters.