Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[Enscheff]

I find it unlikely Duvall is non-tendered when he is likely only looking at roughly 5 million. You aren't likely to replace his production for less. Also, that would leave us with only 2 OFers overall, with one of them being a rookie who has questions regarding his bat. As much as I like Pache, he may not be ready for a full time position. He had a handful of at bats this year that were a mixed bag and he's played a grand total of like 35 games above AA, including the playoffs this year. I don't necessarily have a big issue with giving him a shot to start the year, but putting all your eggs in that basket is foolhardy. Having Duvall around as a back-up plan in case Pache falls on his face is pretty nice.

I think the way AA handles Duvall will be very telling.

If they keep him we know the Braves have at least SOME money, and will at most add a platoon partner.

If they dump we know the Braves are either completely broke, or plan on going big in LF (Springer, Brantley, Ozuna if no DH, etc).

I suspect the Braves are neither broke, nor going big for LF, so I'm guessing they keep Duvall and find a decent platoon option for him.

 

[Enscheff]

No one is above criticism. Granted, his moves have mostly worked out, but Melancon and O'Day were certainly not the most efficient uses of our budget, even if they were good pitchers for us. And obviously Hamels was a waste.

Again, Tomlin isn't making much. But it isn't necessarily the money I have an issue with. It's guaranteeing a contract and a roster spot to a fairly mediocre reliever this early in the off-season. Especially when he's the exact type of pitcher that would most likely be forced to take a ST invite anywhere else. I mean I'm willing to give about anyone a ST invite and if they're considered one of the top 26 guys, then I wouldn't care.

Maybe nsacpi is right and there is more than we know and his veteran leadership actually is super important to the team, and they're rewarding a guy that is well liked by the players and FO.

This is very well put.

I will add that I disagree with the Smith contract, but the overall strategy of big dollar short term deals for impact players is something I agree with 100%. Hamels not working out was certainly a bad outcome, but the fact the Braves are no longer paying him is part of the upside to this strategy.

 

[NYCBrave]

I think the way AA handles Duvall will be very telling.

If they keep him we know the Braves have at least SOME money, and will at most add a platoon partner.

If they dump we know the Braves are either completely broke, or plan on going big in LF (Springer, Brantley, Ozuna if no DH, etc).

I suspect the Braves are neither broke, nor going big for LF, so I'm guessing they keep Duvall and find a decent platoon option for him.

Am I wrong to think that Duvall on the open market this year would receive less than he will by going through arbitration this year? That's the challenging part for me about this decision.

 

[Enscheff]

Am I wrong to think that Duvall on the open market this year would receive less than he will by going through arbitration this year? That's the challenging part for me about this decision.

Hard to say, but my guess is Duvall wouldn’t get that much cash as a FA. Teams understand how unsustainable his regular season results are, and the short side of platoons aren’t that valuable.

Having said that, we won’t know for sure until it’s too late, and that uncertainty may make AA lock in the sure things that’s affordable. In normal times a team wouldn’t freak out over paying a guy $5M who’s only worth $4M, but these aren’t normal times.

 

[clvclv]

When looking at it closer, there's a stronger case to be made that Ozuna's brought back than I thought - ASSUMING he doesn't require a 4th guaranteed year. You can probably even make the case that he's probably the play to make even if it takes that.

Using FanGraphs' projections (4 years/$70 million), if you non-tender Duvall Ozuna would be an $11.75 million hit to 2021's payroll. $7.975 million of his 2022 salary would be paid by letting Ender walk PLUS d'Arnaud's $8 million comes off the books. The 2022 catching tandem SHOULD BE Contreras and Langeliers, meaning you're spending nothing at that position in 2022 or 2023.

If you're willing to live with Almonte as the 5th OF (perfect since he's a switch-hitter and can handle all 3 spots) and can live with the pen as is and A-Jax/Contreras as your backup C this season, there would still be enough room to bring Holt in (~ $2.5 million) and have enough money left to spend up to $10 million on a SP while bringing payroll in right at $120 million. Waters takes over LF in 2022 when Ozuna slides to DH.

The snag then becomes whether or not payroll will rise significantly again by 2022 when Acuna's $10 million raise kicks in, a Freeman extension has to be worked out, and our pitching begins to get more expensive.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

I think a whole lot of the posters here, myself included, are going to be very surprised when all is said and done. AA's comments on MLB Tonite were very positive as to next years plans about getting over the hump. To paraphrase: He said we have our eyes on available players thru signing or trade that hopefully get us over the hump".

In conjunction, Manfreds position on a full season and butts in the bleachers along with the COVID vaccines coming out portend well.

 

[Tapate50]

I think a whole lot of the posters here, myself included, are going to be very surprised when all is said and done. AA's comments on MLB Tonite were very positive as to next years plans about getting over the hump. To paraphrase: He said we have our eyes on available players thru signing or trade that hopefully get us over the hump".

In conjunction, Manfreds position on a full season and butts in the bleachers along with the COVID vaccines coming out portend well.

Yeah kinda been thinking that.... this is hopefully a short term issue so don’t let it interrupt a long term plan. Press on.

 

[Carp]

Am I wrong to think that Duvall on the open market this year would receive less than he will by going through arbitration this year? That's the challenging part for me about this decision.

Duvall is right on the border of what he's likely to get as a FA, depending on what his arbitration figure comes to. I would expect his Arby to be less than 5 million. For reference, Travis Shaw is a similar type of platoon only player and he signed for 4 million last off-season on the heels of a terrible 2019. Then you have Kole Calhoun who on the surface seems very similar to Duvall and he got a 3 year contract from the D-Backs last off-season. So I guess it all depends on how the market perceives Duvall. All it takes is 1 dumb team like the DBacks.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

I wonder if AA has any interest in LaMahieu? In the event he cant bring back Ozuna? Lots of potential voids that could be filled by DJ.

 

[Carp]

LeMahieu splits away from Yankee stadium are gruesome. He's the perfect type hitter for Yankee stadium and he's replacement level everywhere else.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

LeMahieu splits away from Yankee stadium are gruesome. He's the perfect type hitter for Yankee stadium and he's replacement level everywhere else.

Are you basing this on his HR numbers? He had some pretty good numbers in Colo as well and I do understand the Rockies park situation. My point is he could possibly fill backup rolls for Freddie, Ozzie, as well as be the 3b everyone wants. Could also DH. Eliminate the need for a backup SS? Maybe. Rumors Yanks may look elsewhere with payroll as it is. 2b market is pretty full at the moment. Is an attractive target IMO.

 

[NYCBrave]

I wonder if AA has any interest in LaMahieu? In the event he cant bring back Ozuna? Lots of potential voids that could be filled by DJ.

There is no chance we will end up the highest bidder for LaMehieu. We'd have to outbid the Yankees who really want him back, so that's a pipe dream.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

There is no chance we will end up the highest bidder for LaMehieu. We'd have to outbid the Yankees who really want him back, so that's a pipe dream.

It was a question and not a pipe dream. I see you are one who is in all likelyhood subject to insider info being from/in NY but there are lots of discussions and commentator info out there that NY may well go away from DJ and move Gleyber to 2nd.

 

[50PoundHead]

It was a question and not a pipe dream. I see you are one who is in all likelyhood subject to insider info being from/in NY but there are lots of discussions and commentator info out there that NY may well go away from DJ and move Gleyber to 2nd.

I'm not laser-focused on the off-season yet, but there are rumors that the Yankees may be in on Andrelton Simmons and move Gleyber Torres to 2B. That rumor may have been attached to the prospects of LaMahieu going somewhere else.

 

[Nerfherders]

Lemahieu was an MVP finalist. He's not going to be a super-sub lol.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

I'm not laser-focused on the off-season yet, but there are rumors that the Yankees may be in on Andrelton Simmons and move Gleyber Torres to 2B. That rumor may have been attached to the prospects of LaMahieu going somewhere else.

Yanks have been rumored as well every time Lindors name comes up

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

Lemahieu was an MVP finalist. He's not going to be a super-sub lol.

If it wasnt for the lol I could attach an Enscheff type response but Ill settle for a simple "I am not suggesting LeMahieu as a super-sub. More pointed to 3d and DH but capable to backup the other 3 in case of injury.

 

[50PoundHead]

Lemahieu was an MVP finalist. He's not going to be a super-sub lol.

I think PawPaw's point is he wouldn't be a super-sub if he's playing everyday. For the Braves, I think he'd likely be the DH and would fill in around the infield if the occasion arose where he was needed in that capacity. He did play quite a bit of 3B for the Yankees in 2019 and has also spent time at 1B. His defense doesn't appear to be a liability, but sample size issues arise at positions other than 2B.

EDIT: PawPaw answered for himself a minute before me with pretty much the same answer. We are both advanced in years but are not the same person.

 

[50PoundHead]

My how time flies. Just read the article over at mlb.com that talks about the prospects that have to go on the 40-man rosters over the winter or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft. The Braves' forfeited international signing class all falls into that category. If the Angels don't put Maitan on the 40-man, we could bring him back!

 

[drewdat]

1. Cheat to sign a bunch of busts
2. Get caught, lose said busts (also get banned from baseball for life)
3. Busts move to different organizations and get left off 40-man rosters
4. Re-sign the busts
5. ???
6. Profit!