The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
striker42
Well-known member
Great data. The ICU bed usage was consistently around 150 before covid. Then you see the waves hit. Up to 335 in August of 2020, 357 in January of 2021, 480 in August of 2021. These peaks correlate perfectly with peaks of confirmed Covid infections.
So the idea that ICU admissions have only ticked up a couple percentage points isn't true. During a peak they more than double.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
crisis actors?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
People in ICU or on ventilators are very sick people. These are not discretionary hospital admissions. To suggest otherwise is ridiculous.
You need to see the data on a longer timeframe to deduce anything about COVID>
COVID cowards is the term I prefer.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3840149/
"Over the three years studied, total ICU occupancy ranged from 57.4% to 82.1% and the number of beds filled with mechanically ventilated patients ranged from 20.7% to 38.9%. There was no change in occupancy across years and no increase in occupancy during influenza seasons. Mean hourly occupancy across ICUs was 68.2% SD ± 21.3, and was substantially higher in ICUs with fewer beds (mean 75.8% (± 16.5) for 5–14 beds versus 60.9% (± 22.1) for 20+ beds, P = 0.001), and in academic hospitals (78.7% (± 15.9) versus 65.3% (± 21.3) for community not-for profit hospitals, P < 0.001). More than half (53.6%) of ICUs had 4+ beds available more than half the time. The mean percentage of ICU patients receiving mechanical ventilation in any given hour was 39.5% (± 15.2), and a mean of 29.0% (± 15.9) of ICU beds were filled with a patient on a ventilator."
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3840149/
"Over the three years studied, total ICU occupancy ranged from 57.4% to 82.1% and the number of beds filled with mechanically ventilated patients ranged from 20.7% to 38.9%. There was no change in occupancy across years and no increase in occupancy during influenza seasons. Mean hourly occupancy across ICUs was 68.2% SD ± 21.3, and was substantially higher in ICUs with fewer beds (mean 75.8% (± 16.5) for 5–14 beds versus 60.9% (± 22.1) for 20+ beds, P = 0.001), and in academic hospitals (78.7% (± 15.9) versus 65.3% (± 21.3) for community not-for profit hospitals, P < 0.001). More than half (53.6%) of ICUs had 4+ beds available more than half the time. The mean percentage of ICU patients receiving mechanical ventilation in any given hour was 39.5% (± 15.2), and a mean of 29.0% (± 15.9) of ICU beds were filled with a patient on a ventilator."
Oh Zito - You need to learn how to read these things.
I'll give you 1 hour and if you still don't understand what you've done wrong then I'll tell you.
striker42
Well-known member
I was pulling data from as far back as April of 2019. The ICU rates were stable from April of 2019 until the first wave hit Mississippi in July-August of 2020. You can see the ICU numbers jump three times at the same time that confirmed Covid infections jump. They then fall back towards the average as the waves subside. It's pretty clear data and not at all surprising.
The max range I see on the second chart is 04/03/2020 - 10/04/2021.
Where are you looking?
striker42
Well-known member
Actually, you can chuck everything I was saying. I just noticed that the patients in ICU and on ventilators in that chart are confirmed Covid cases. That's why the data wasnt changing when I went further back. That's annoying.
So let's try this. During the Covid waves we see 350-400 Covid positive patients in the ICU in Mississippi. The total number of ICU beds in Mississippi is 846. So you're talking about 40-50% of the total ICU beds in the state being used for Covid patients during surges. That figure's worse than what I was originally saying.
What about the date ranges?
If all you are seeing is COVID years (And I'd argue that 2019 second half is also a COVID year) then whats your baseline?
striker42
Well-known member
It was saying it was displaying a different date range but wasn't really displaying a different date range because the data only started being collected in April of 2020. So we still don't have a control period.
That being said, we can draw some conclusions from the fact that 40%-50% of ICU beds were Covid patients in Mississippi during the waves and that Mississippi got as low as 11 open ICU beds at one point. That conclusion being that Covid waves stress ICUs.
But is it much different than a normal year is what you really need to know.
I suspect there would be an increase but is it an increase that we needed to upend society for?
striker42
Well-known member
https://covid-hub.gio.georgia.gov/apps/georgia-hospital-bed-ventilator-capacity/explore
Some interesting data here. You can see the three wave pattern in Georgia's numbers too. It's interesting, the total in patient bed usage shows a correlation but a weaker one. ICU bed usage is much more strongly correlated. Ventilator usage is the strongest correlation of all.
Some interesting data here. You can see the three wave pattern in Georgia's numbers too. It's interesting, the total in patient bed usage shows a correlation but a weaker one. ICU bed usage is much more strongly correlated. Ventilator usage is the strongest correlation of all.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
LEt's see, in 2019 there was 2.85 million deaths. Since 2000 the largest YOY death climb was about 90K. Now hard numberwise it's interesting to think about but it's easier to imagine based on percentage.
So going from year to year, I'll put the final year as this so we'll start listing 2014 but it will be the percentage increase from 2013 to 2014
2014 - 1.13%
2015 - 3.28%
2016 - 1.17%
2017 - 2.52%
2018 - 0.91%
2019 - 0.55%
2020 - 17.65%
Of course we don't have the final numbers for 2020 yet. Usually final numbers for the year hit later.
Without COVID we could have expected probably a high death around 2.94 to a low of around 2.87. Our provisional deathcount is around 3.3M.
The fact that you're being so blasé about it is sickening.