Official 2022 Offseason Moves Thread

thethe said:
I agree with this - I put the 'etc' to show that this is just the starting point.

We would have to GUT an already mid tier system to get this guy when there is a viable CF option internally and excess cash to fill out LF/DH.
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Look at what encheff posted about what he has for salaries already. If Freeman does cost close to 30 million then 2 OF and another bench bat or bullpen arm gets almost impossible to do. And we need a veteran starter also. Morton is close to 40 and Soroka can’t be included in anything anytime soon. And no 2 of what we have in AAA won’t cut it.
 
Hudson2 said:
Look at what encheff posted about what he has for salaries already. If Freeman does cost close to 30 million then 2 OF and another bench bat or bullpen arm gets almost impossible to do.
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Pretty sure that included Ozunas number and I'm assuming that he is either our DH and therefore we don't need to fill that position or his money is freed up and thereby giving us more leeway to sign people.
 
Hudson2 said:
Pache still carries value and so does Contreras bc he’s probably a starter on most teams, especially the Pirates.
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I don't think the Pirates care about how ready they are now.

In fact - I think they'd rather have guys who aren't ready for 2022.
 
thethe said:
Pretty sure that included Ozunas number and I'm assuming that he is either our DH and therefore we don't need to fill that position or his money is freed up and thereby giving us more leeway to sign people.
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I’ll wait to see the Ozuna stuff bc the way we’ve been screwed by MLB lately I don’t trust anything. But as of right now he has to be included in the spread sheet.
 
Hudson2 said:
I’ll wait to see the Ozuna stuff bc the way we’ve been screwed by MLB lately I don’t trust anything. But as of right now he has to be included in the spread sheet.
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I guess this is a fair take but I think its either or.

Ozuna is our DH or we get back his salary and that is how I'd operate if I were AA but I'm sure he has a large legal team informing him what the most likely outcome will be.
 
50PoundHead said:
You know I'm not much of a Duvall guy, but I would counter that while his "true" value is pretty much the same, we have to remember that value is relative in the eyes of many. When his side says he's a CF in arbitration and he's compared against other CFs, that--and the illusion provided by counting stats--could matter to an arbitrator that doesn't understand deeper analysis.
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That was the point of non-tendering him in the first place. An arbitrator was going to award him more than he is worth, so he was non-tendered. If they will award him more for being called a CFer, then that's even more reason to non-tender him.

Modern player analysis already knew Duvall could fake it in CF. They knew his sprint speed. They knew his jump times. They knew his range. They knew is catch probability was above average. They knew how to position the OFers to compensate.

Teams knew all this before he actually spent time in CF, and valued him accordingly.

If any FO just know learned that Duvall could handle CF just because he did so for the Braves in the playoffs, they should all be fired.
 
DirkPiggler said:
The only thing I see is that he's shown he can play a somewhat passable CF for a short stretch. That should add a little bit of value.

How much/how long would you feel comfortable giving him?
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Nothing until late in the off season. Again, everyone already knew Duvall's OF metrics, and knew he could fake it in CF. This is not new information to any competent FO.

Duvall would be my Plan G this off season, and I would circle back to him late in the process if I still needed to cobble together CF or the bench.

So I guess something like 1 year and $5M?
 
I say go with Pache and give him 100 games to see if he can hit better than a pitcher.

Beef up LF/DH and then go to war for the repeat.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
They should have gotten insurance money for time on the 60 day IL. The later time on the Admin leave has to be paid if I understand the current CBA.
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I don't know what company insures player contracts, but I wouldn't think the CBA has much to do with what they decide to cover.

Reading a good article about what's in those policies and what isn't would interest me.
 
CJ9 said:
Because none of those guys you mentioned signing can play centerfield and Reynolds just put up a 5.5 fWAR season there.
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It might be a risk for the Pirates to not sell high on Reynolds (and the price would be very high), but they aren't being run by the same goofballs that ran them prior to Cherington and they may be contenders while Reynolds is still under team control. Obviously, some things would have to go right on the development side for them, but I don't see them trading Reynolds for a bunch of "maybes." I don't think we have the top-drawer talent to get him and given the amount of team control the acquiring team would have, no one is going to get him in a quantity-over-quality deal. Pirates have a fair amount of minor league depth and they will be looking for immediate contributors.
 
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Enscheff said:
That was the point of non-tendering him in the first place. An arbitrator was going to award him more than he is worth, so he was non-tendered. If they will award him more for being called a CFer, then that's even more reason to non-tender him.

Modern player analysis already knew Duvall could fake it in CF. They knew his sprint speed. They knew his jump times. They knew his range. They knew is catch probability was above average. They knew how to position the OFers to compensate.

Teams knew all this before he actually spent time in CF, and valued him accordingly.

If any FO just know learned that Duvall could handle CF just because he did so for the Braves in the playoffs, they should all be fired.
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And there are some that should and they would be the ones overvaluing Duvall. I'm more worried about the arbitrator than the rest of baseball. Anthopoulos knows what he's doing and if he does the same thing here as last off-season, I'm fine with it.
 
thethe said:
I say go with Pache and give him 100 games to see if he can hit better than a pitcher.

Beef up LF/DH and then go to war for the repeat.
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Unless Pache is traded, I agree. He needs to be given another run.

Something like Soler/Pache/Acuna in the OF with Ozuna at DH. If Ozuna is gone, replace him with another bat for similar money. Castellanos may price himself into a 1 year deal.

The trickiness comes when we consider Acuna may not be 100% right away, and Pache may fall flat. So it would be nice to have a guy who can fill in for Acuna early, take Pache's place later, and then be a strong bench option if Acuna and Pache are healthy/effective.

That guy could certainly be Adam Duvall, or it could be Heredia plus a LHH like Joc. I'd prefer a LHH since the roster is already pretty RHH heavy.
 
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Enscheff said:
Unless Pache is traded, I agree.

Something like Soler/Pache/Acuna in the OF with Ozuna at DH. If Ozuna is gone, replace him with another bat for similar money.

The trickiness comes when we consider Acuna may not be 100% right away, and Pache may fall flat. So it would be nice to have a guy who can fill in for Acuna early, take Pache's place later, and then be a strong bench option if Acuna and Pache are healthy/effective.

That guy could certainly be Adam Duvall, or it could be Heredia plus a LHH like Joc.
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Even in this 'worst case' scenario I think we tread water enough to be in the playoff picture for AA to pull some more great deadline deals for 75 game stopgaps.
 
50PoundHead said:
You know I'm not much of a Duvall guy, but I would counter that while his "true" value is pretty much the same, we have to remember that value is relative in the eyes of many. When his side says he's a CF in arbitration and he's compared against other CFs, that--and the illusion provided by counting stats--could matter to an arbitrator that doesn't understand deeper analysis.
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Again an article that I would love to read, but I'm not sure why we'd assume that an arbitrator, I assume chosen for experience in those kinds of arbitrations, would be unable to grasp deeper analysis.

I will say it is probably a plus that precedent makes things somewhat predictable so I can see where the analysis that throws that out of whack might not be received. Still I bet it shifts over time.
 
Enscheff said:
Unless Pache is traded, I agree. He needs to be given another run.

Something like Soler/Pache/Acuna in the OF with Ozuna at DH. If Ozuna is gone, replace him with another bat for similar money. Castellanos may price himself into a 1 year deal.

The trickiness comes when we consider Acuna may not be 100% right away, and Pache may fall flat. So it would be nice to have a guy who can fill in for Acuna early, take Pache's place later, and then be a strong bench option if Acuna and Pache are healthy/effective.

That guy could certainly be Adam Duvall, or it could be Heredia plus a LHH like Joc. I'd prefer a LHH since the roster is already pretty RHH heavy.
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Ideally, you'd keep Pache down a good bit longer. Just let him really work it out at AAA.

If they trade for a cheap star that opens everything up, but they haven't done it yet. And none of these 3-4 years of control guys with huge surplus end up getting moved. Probably because you can't really get back the mathematical value.

I think Atlanta is more likely cobbling stuff together on margins and short deals as ever.
 
Southcack77 said:
I don't know what company insures player contracts, but I wouldn't think the CBA has much to do with what they decide to cover.

Reading a good article about what's in those policies and what isn't would interest me.
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It may be insured from the MLB pool or maybe self insured by the teams but it has been my understanding for years that once a player goes on the 60 day IL insurance kicks in to pay him. To what extent I do not know. If the CBA is involved Im pretty sure it has something to do to keep teams from cutting pay per contract.
 
thethe said:
Even in this 'worst case' scenario I think we tread water enough to be in the playoff picture for AA to pull some more great deadline deals for 75 game stopgaps.
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The odds that AA or any gm having what happened this past deadline are slim to none. Counting on him to do that again and it payoff the way it did is basically impossible.
 
Southcack77 said:
You're really following closely what Preller wants.
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Yep. Tho it is not my original idea. MLB shows keep lots of this pot stirred. And until newspapers started demanding subscriptions for on line people I read a lot of them daily. Preller is a loose cannon to some degree and couple his statements it would seem to me that Freddie would be his prime target with FFs ties to SCal.
 
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