Around the Majors - 2022 Version

chop2chip said:
If Olson averages 2.5 to 3 WAR over his 8 years, I’ll be happy. He’s been good this year, but he needs to be better. Olson isn’t the problem.

He doesn’t need to be better than Freddie. That wasn’t an option for us. Freddie firing his representation is evidence of that.
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He was an option but AA declined it. Olson is doing just fine.

He probably fired his agents bc they didn't know California's tax laws.
 
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The Chosen One said:
He should have done this long ago. Weird he did this after this past weekend.

still, his agent does what they’re told by Freddie. I still find it hard to believe the agent gave a counter take it or leave it offer to AA without Freddie’s knowledge. He can’t be that oblivious to the situation.


also, changing representation now is kind of pointless. His contract will run through the age of 40, basically the end of his career. He’s signed his last big deal.
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Freddie seems loyal to a fault. Maybe he didn't want to throw his agent under the bus immediately. Maybe his agent misrepresented the truth in an attempt to save face. Who knows?
 
msstate7 said:
2.5 to 3.0 fWAR would be very disappointing to me
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As an average over 8 years? Your expectations are a little high, imo. He's going to be 36 at the end of this contract. If he's still putting up better than 2-3 WAR seasons after at age 34, we should be very happy. In reality, his last 3 years are likely to be replacement level or worse.
 
Carp said:
As an average over 8 years? Your expectations are a little high, imo. He's going to be 36 at the end of this contract. If he's still putting up better than 2-3 WAR seasons after at age 34, we should be very happy. In reality, his last 3 years are likely to be replacement level or worse.
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Zips projects 13.4 fWAR over 1st 3 years. That means to avg 3.0 fWAR over the contract, he'd only have to get 1.8 avg over the last 5 years. To avg 2.5, he'd need to avg 1.3. If we expect him to fall off a cliff like that in year 4, probably wasn't smart to extend him so long
 
msstate7 said:
Zips projects 13.4 fWAR over 1st 3 years. That means to avg 3.0 fWAR over the contract, he'd only have to get 1.8 avg over the last 5 years. To avg 2.5, he'd need to avg 1.3. If we expect him to fall off a cliff like that in year 4, probably wasn't smart to extend him so long
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Again, we are talking averages. You have to remember his final 3 seasons are likely to be pretty bad overall. We're clearly paying him for his remaining prime, the next 4-5 seasons as they fit in our window. That's the reality of big contracts.

I would expect Olson to age something like this in fWAR:

8-10 fWAR over the first 2 years

8-10 fWAR over the next 3 years (probably misses some time, but remains a force when in the lineup)

<5 WAR combined year 6 and 7

0-2 WAR (or less if he's really bad) year 8.



Basically, we should reasonably expect him to be relatively healthy and good for the next 4-5 yrs. After that, he most likely declines rapidly/plays less than 125 games annually the remaining 3 seasons. And year 8 is likely to be pretty brutal.
 
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Carp said:
Again, we are talking averages. You have to remember his final 3 seasons are likely to be pretty bad overall. We're clearly paying him for his remaining prime, the next 4-5 seasons as they fit in our window. That's the reality of big contracts.

I would expect Olson to age something like this in fWAR:

8-10 fWAR over the first 2 years

8-10 fWAR over the next 3 years (probably misses some time, but remains a force when in the lineup)

<5 WAR combined year 6 and 7

0-2 WAR (or less if he's really bad) year 8.



Basically, we should reasonably expect him to be relatively healthy and good for the next 4-5 yrs. After that, he most likely declines rapidly/plays less than 125 games annually the remaining 3 seasons. And year 8 is likely to be pretty brutal.
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Then why not the 5-year 135 million you offered FF? If we expect absolutely crap the final 3, makes no sense to go 8 years
 
msstate7 said:
Then why not the 5-year 135 million you offered FF? If we expect absolutely crap the final 3, makes no sense to go 8 years
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Because Olson is much younger and wasn't going to sign a 5 year deal - that part isn't that hard to figure out.

Olson will be the same age Freeman is today in 2026, and he'll NEVER make more than $22 million a year. At that point (2026), Olson will be owed 4/88 and Freeman will be 35 and will still be owed 2/54. Betting on a 32 year old Olson to come closer to what he'll be owed at that time isn't exactly rocket science. The deferrals in Freeman's deals will help offset that somewhat, but none of the reports we've seen have mentioned that ANY of the 5/135 the Braves offered was deferred.
 
clvclv said:
Because Olson is much younger and wasn't going to sign a 5 year deal - that part isn't that hard to figure out.

Olson will be the same age Freeman is today in 2026, and he'll NEVER make more than $22 million a year. At that point (2026), Olson will be owed 4/88 and Freeman will be 35 and will still be owed 2/54. Betting on a 32 year old Olson to come closer to what he'll be owed at that time isn't exactly rocket science. The deferrals in Freeman's deals will help offset that somewhat, but none of the reports we've seen have mentioned that ANY of the 5/135 the Braves offered was deferred.
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I don't mind the deal. I reject the idea that AA signed Olson to an 8-year deal expecting him to fall off a cliff in year 5.

Obviously not AA, but I would imagine he expects something like 4.5 fWAR the first 2 seasons, 4 fWAR years 3-4, 3 fWAR years 5-6, and 2 fWAR years 7-8. This would be an average of 3.4 fWAR/year for contract. An avg around 2.5 fWAR/year might be acceptable money wise, but it would be disappointing
 
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How much would we hate Jason Castro in a braves uniform? He's obviously a good catcher, but .104 BA with .325 ops
 
msstate7 said:
I don't mind the deal. I reject the idea that AA signed Olson to an 8-year deal expecting him to fall off a cliff in year 5.

Obviously not AA, but I would imagine he expects something like 4.5 fWAR the first 2 seasons, 4 fWAR years 3-4, 3 fWAR years 5-6, and 2 fWAR years 7-8. This would be an average of 3.4 fWAR/year for contract. An avg around 2.5 fWAR/year might be acceptable money wise, but it would be disappointing
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I agree you do not put that amount of resources in prospects and cash into a low value defensive position (1B) unless you are expecting an impact player for years.

With inflation of all things, it is possible Olson could still be underpaid at 22 million with a 3 WAR season.

Olson is making 22 million from age 29-35 (15 million this year, age 28). That should be most of his prime and likely a couple of decline years. Option for age 36 season.
FF is making 27 million from age 32-37. Then 57 million deferred.

I think AA is thinking he has a 4+ win player from age 28-33. Mix in some 5 win seasons. 34-35 maybe more like a 3 WIN guy. In full seasons in a gigantic ball park the guy was a 4+ win guy. Not crazy to think 5 wins is reasonable with his age curve and a much smaller park.
 
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