3/30 - OPENING DAY VS THE GNATS!

Bryce Elder starting Gwinnett's opener tonight, which lines him up to take Fried's spot on Wednesday.
 
Interesting Fangraphs article from Longenhagen with Dodd/Shuster mentions: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-start...-100-prospects-list-and-more-feat-dylan-dodd/.

He bumped Dodd to a 50 FV and pushed him to No. 89 in the Fangraphs top 100 prospects.

"I’ve also made one addition to the 50 FV tier from off the list: Braves lefty Dylan Dodd. I sent Jay Jaffe notes when he wrote about both Dodd’s and Jared Shuster’s pursuit of an opening day rotation spot and indicated that you could make an argument both are top 100 prospects because of the increased velocity they’ve shown this spring. I’m buying Dodd more than I am Shuster, though both appear ready to occupy a big league rotation spot.

Both pitchers have exhibited two-tick bumps in velocity this spring: Dodd’s fastball has averaged 94 mph and topped out at 96 per publicly available data from Grapefruit League games this spring, and Shuster was sitting 92. But Dodd’s increase hasn’t compromised his command, whereas for Shuster that’s less certain. He’s throwing harder, but he still has below-average velocity and didn’t have great feel for locating his fastball this spring. And while Shuster has something Dodd doesn’t (a plus pitch in his changeup), his breaking ball is below-average and relies much more on location than movement; it isn’t a pitch that can live in the zone. The good news is Shuster tends to command it, as he does his plus changeup, which he also tends to locate, and which he hides well with his short arm stroke. It has big tailing action and is easily his best pitch. Shuster will probably pitch off of that cambio in the big leagues for a very long time; it’s just tough to see him as anything more than a no. 4/5 starter if he’s only going to sit either 90 with command, or 92 without it.

Dodd, however, has been surgical even amid his own two-tick velo spike and while adjusting to a relatively new delivery. He is getting deeper into his legs than he was in college, and his stride is more closed off, altering the angle of his fastball in addition to helping unlock some extra velocity by better using his lower half. His stuff is fine, not great, but he has plus-plus command of everything, he goes right at hitters, and his fastball has enough hair on it to stay off barrels even though it isn’t a dominant, riding pitch. He belongs amid the high-floor 50 FV pitchers toward the back of the Top 100. Both Dodd and Shuster have been added to The Board."
 
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Here's Longenhagen's updated Dodd scouring report, too:

Dodd began his college career at Kankakee Community College in Illinois before matriculating to Southeast Missouri State for three more years. He didn't truly establish himself until 2021, his fourth year removed from high school, when Dodd struck out 120 batters and walked just 17 in 96 innings. The Braves made him their third round pick, altered his delivery, and coaxed a little more velo and fastball playability out of him; the following year, Dodd raced all the way to Triple-A in his first full season while maintaining his stuff across a 30-inning workload increase. Compared to college, Dodd's delivery looks totally different at "footstrike," the moment in a pitcher's mechanics when their front foot touches down on the mound. Dodd's stride direction is more closed and in general he's deeper into his lower half, which is now more engaged throughout his delivery. Getting Dodd lower to the ground impacted the approach angle of his fastball in a way that helps it play a little bit better in the strike zone, and the changes didn't messed with Dodd's fantastic command. He ran a 3.36 ERA in 2022 while sitting 91-93 mph and throwing his fastball for strikes a whopping 73% of the time. Dodd also has fantastic glove-side command of his mid-80s slider, which has average vertical depth thanks more to his arm slot than his ability to spin the baseball. He's great at killing spin on his low-80s changeup, which always seems to finish just beneath the bottom of the strike zone. Dodd's precise and consistent execution of all his pitches is what's driving his performance most of all, and he looked like a high-probability backend starter throughout 2022 mostly because of his special command. Then in the spring of 2023, he had a two-tick velo spike while maintaining his feel for location. Plus-plus command weaponizing three average pitches? Sign us up. Dodd won a spot in the big league rotation as camp broke and moved into the Top 100 on the strength of his performance and improved velocity.
 
Not playing on Friday night certainly seems like an odd decision.

not really much they can do about it since opening day was on a Thursday. You have to have the day off after opening day unless you are in a dome (retractable) or in Cali where it never rains. Opening day tickets are worth so much more than reg. season tickets and you can't risk having to refund those fans who bought them and then having fans who are holding game 2 tickets lucking their way into opening day events. I get why they do it.
 
Base stealers were 21-23 in stolen bases this year on opening day. They were 5-9 last year. MLB has just made the stolen base meaningless.
 
Base stealers were 21-23 in stolen bases this year on opening day. They were 5-9 last year. MLB has just made the stolen base meaningless.

I don’t think it was implemented to make stolen base anything. It was implemented to increase offense and prevent pitchers from throwing over 5-6 times in an at bat. It is part of the get rid of dead time aspect of game. I am personally not a fan of it. But I don’t think you can get rid of it and still have pitch clock. Pitchers will just throw over to first a bunch to slow things down.
 
Base stealers were 21-23 in stolen bases this year on opening day. They were 5-9 last year. MLB has just made the stolen base meaningless.

How is it meaningless ? Not sure I follow you here ?
And you know I’m not trying to argue - certainly value your opinion greatly (well, most of the time)-
Are you saying that base stealing is going to happen with such great frequency as to be considered ho- hum?

Because to me, I remember when stealing bases was much bigger part of the game and it was cool.

Teams quit trying it once they realized the runner on first was more valuable than 70% of a runner on second with such emphasis being on HRs now …

I mean the stolen base was essentially dying.
Sure Acuna or Harris might get with the old rules 40 and it’s a huge and rare thing - last year the MLB SB champ only had 35.

When I was little, Ricky stole 130 one year and usually was at or over 100 - and then Kenny Lofton turning walks into triples every day it seemed like.
Hell, we used to run a lot.

Everyone did. Until recently it seems- but there were plenty of years without many at all - but, hell, Ty Cobb stole 109 in 1915. Point is - they are encouraging stealing bases to be super common- and we are so so fortunate to have Murph now.

Teams without elite arms behind the plate are going to be at a huge disadvantage - here’s looking at you Mets …

So- very long winded way of questioning why the SB is now meaningless ?
Seems like it’s going huge differences in how the game is managed, played, and planned for - and I think this is a huge advantage for teams with a battery like Murphy …. Thus the SB will be huge for us - we have a lot of speed on base paths and ability to make others not wanna try it against us.

Sorry for length - that’s gotta be my longest post in the history of forever . :)
 
Because stolen bases were exciting when they were risky. If they succeed 90% of the time they are now like free throws or extra point kicks…the most boring form of offense in those respective sports. Eventually more and more slower guys are going to steal more bases as well, and they will become even more boring.

I suppose “meaningless” was the wrong word. “Boring” is probably better.
 
I was thinking of something during the opener,. In the first inning, Corbin threw over to 1st twice before Acuna took off for 2nd. Is it 2 disengagements per base? Or is it per batter? Because at that point, Acuna could have gotten a huge lead and stole third.
 
Because stolen bases were exciting when they were risky. If they succeed 90% of the time they are now like free throws or extra point kicks…the most boring form of offense in those respective sports. Eventually more and more slower guys are going to steal more bases as well, and they will become even more boring.

I suppose “meaningless” was the wrong word. “Boring” is probably better.

Still takes someone with speed and skill to succeed. It will be interesting to see how it affects the game this season. So far, i'm okay with the changes.
 
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